Reflections on the Season: Uncertainty and Hope for the Next

Warren Grimes

Stanford’s season ended with the team’s 76-61 loss to BYU in the WBIT quarterfinals.  Stanford played to seed but did not play its best against BYU.  The team shot only 16% from distance and was outboarded 53 to 36.  On the plus side, the team had only six turnovers (to BYU’s 15), had 9 steals (to BYU’s 2).  Two players showed consistent post-season grit:  Courtney Ogden had 26 points (and averaged 18.3 in the three WBIT games).  Chloe Clardy had 17 points and 3 steals (and averaged 16.3 points in the tournament).  In the early fourth quarter, Stanford trailed by just one, but ran out of gas and was outscored 26 to 12 in the quarter. 

Stanford modestly improved its record over last season but did not play up to preseason predictions and hopes.  A key disappointment was the failure to make the NCAA tournament for the second straight season.  Going into next season, Stanford has, in theory, all of its late season starters coming back.  Ogden’s and Swaine’s late season improvements are encouraging.  Clardy is a money player, and so is Agara.  Somfai was an ACC all freshman team selection and probably next in line (after the Syracuse player) for the ACC rookie of the year selection.  Stanford was tested on depth, particularly when Somfai chose not to participate in the WBIT tournament.

The transfer portal is on everyone’s mind, and I mean everyone (players, coaches, and fans).  At least one of the team’s starters, Somfai, is said to be open to discussions with other teams.  The transfer portal is an issue not just for Stanford but for most teams, including the high performing UCLA team.  In an LA Times story, head coach Cori Close said: “I’ve never been as tired as I’ve been in the last two years.”   Close went on to say: “How do we now figure out this transfer portal?  Let’s not complain about it.  Let’s have solutions.” 

Close’s team benefitted from the transfer of former Stanford player Lauren Betts and two other UCLA starters who transferred from other schools.  While professing to support NIL for players, Close says that the sport needs boundaries, needs infrastructure, needs competitive equity, and needs transparency.  I’ll second that. 

The details of what boundaries and transparency look like are up for debate.  Some stability and reward for player loyalty must be part of the system.  Here are two suggestions.  Some sort of modest penalty should be imposed on transfers.  It could be the old rule that a transferring player must sit out a season (with or without a lost year of eligibility).  Or perhaps a player could be benched for just a half-season, allowing a transferee to start playing for her new team on January 15.  A second suggestion is that all amounts paid to a player by the school or by outsiders under NIL arrangements would have to be reported to the school and made public.  These changes, however modest they sound, might have to be approved by the Antitrust Division of the Justice Department or by congressional legislation. 

Coach Paye has emphasized that players who sign with Stanford benefit from the team’s reputation and the value of a Stanford education.  Will that be enough to persuade all of this year’s players to return?  I genuinely hope that it will be, but every player is free to decide what’s in her self-interest.  Fans want their players to come back and be part of a long-term, unselfish and high-achieving unit.   Team loyalty is good for the sport, good for the coaching staff’s restful nights, and probably good for the players in the long term.  In terms of player development, building chemistry, and fan support, the transfer portal is a major distraction, and a perverse one.  Attracting dedicated and qualified coaches could be undercut if a team has to be reconstructed every year.  

To Lara Somfai, and any other Stanford player considering the portal, we don't get to vote, but we'd love to be your best and most loyal fans next season.

The WBIT: A Window Into Stanford's Future?

 

Warren Grimes

Stanford is a #2 seed in the WBIT starting this Thursday.  That’s not where Stanford wanted to be, but every game and every tournament is a new opportunity.  Stanford can make major noise in this tournament – even win it – but to do so the team must be methodical, resilient, and relentless.  One game at a time.  A strong tournament showing could be a great morale boost for the team going on to the next season.

For the most part, I liked the way the season ended.  Stanford played great team basketball in decimating Clemson in the last regular season game.  Against Miami in the ACC tournament opener, Stanford showed resilience and great three point-shooting (44% for the game).  The fourth quarter comeback, outscoring Miami 18 to 5 to force overtime, was almost a Cinderella story.   Courtney Ogden’s 22 points, and Hailee Swain’s 17 (4-7 three pointers) were the kind of post season play that makes history.  Alas, the Cardinal could not stop Miami’s monster center (Ra Shaya Kyle had 25 points on 10 for 12 shooting).  Stanford ran out of gas in the overtime.

The seven-player rotation against Miami illustrates a continuing concern with depth – just six players had over 95% of the playing time in this overtime game.  That’s an issue in a single elimination tournament with up to 5 games played in a 13-day span.   Still, in many ways, this Stanford team has achieved what was expected.   The season records show three top scoring juniors (Nunu Agara, Courtney Ogden, and Chloe Clardy) followed closely by the three top scoring freshmen (Lara Somfai, Hailee Swain, and Alex Eschmeyer).  Five of those six are averaging over 10 points per game.  There is genuine diversity in the Stanford offense and multi-faceted challenges facing the defending opponent.  Stanford could play its large lineup, with Eschmeyer, Somfai, Agara, and Ogden, all 6’1” or taller, or it could go smaller with quickness featuring Ogden, Swain, Clardy and Shay Ijiwoye. 

In late season, two players have shown improvement and exceptional moxie: Courtney Ogden (who has been the top scorer in several recent contests) and Hailee Swain (who is playing her best basketball and played all but 13 seconds of the Miami overtime game).  They were the high scorers against Miami.   To win its way into the end game, the team needs these two late bloomers and each of the other major contributors to put it together.  If one player gets doubled, the others must exploit and dismantle the defense.  Shay Ijiwoye is another key.  Her intensity and quickness can inspire the defense and unravel an opponent.

My fantasy is for a rematch against Miami in the end game, this time with a different ending. As far as next year, I am hoping Stanford can take an example from the Duke women's team.   After a disappointing season, Duke went on to be a dominant ACC team in the following two seasons.

 

Stanford Finds Its March Offense: A Seven Player Juggernaught?

 

Warren Grimes

Last year, on Sunday, December 14, Stanford defeated California in its first conference game of the season.  Stanford was 9-2 overall.  Preseason predictions had Stanford finishing the season in 6^th place in the ACC.  That seemed an overly cautious prediction given Stanford’s recruiting class that included three high school All Americans.  An NCAA tournament birth seemed assured.  The freshmen, two of whom had started all 11 games, seemed destined to get even better.

If someone had told me then that Stanford would finish the conference season in 13^th place, I would have been quite disappointed – and a bit incredulous. 

There’s another side to this story.  If, on December 14, I had settled down for a long Winter’s nap – I mean a Rip Van Winkle-type nap that lasted for weeks – only to wake up at Maples in time to see the March 1 game against Clemson, I would have slept through all of the Sturm and Drang of the mid-conference season.  Watching the Clemson game, I would have thought, just as predicted, that Stanford had become an elite, top-ten team.   Stanford methodically dismembered Clemson, winning by 35 points and racking up 87 points against a team that had held opponents to an average of 58 points per game.    

If someone next to me told me that in the previous game, Stanford had bested SMU by 30 points, I would have nodded and said to myself, “Yup, just as expected.”  If the same person happened to mention that freshman Lara Somfai had four times been selected for conference freshman of the week, my thought would have been “yes, that’s not surprising.”

Of course, once I had fully awakened from my Rip Van Winkle-sleep, I would have realized that the journey to the last two games was vastly different, and much more of a Cinderella story.  Stanford, after losing Nunu Agara and Talana Lepolo to injury, had lost 8 of the last 9 conference games before winning the last three.  Stanford had finished with an overall losing record in the ACC (8-10).

Stanford found its offensive rhythm in the final conference games thanks to a seven-player rotation that included its three top scoring juniors (Agara, Chloe Clardy, and Courtney Ogden) and the team’s next three highest scorers (freshmen All-Americans Lara Somfai, Hailey Swain, and Alexandra Eschmeyer) plus sophomore Shay Ijiwoye.   Crisp interior passing and lots of movement led to many uncontested layups.  That’s Stanford’s March basketball pedigree.  A notable change for the last three games was Ijiwoye’s insertion into the starting lineup as the point guard.  Against Clemson, Ijiwoye had only 4 points, but garnished that with 4 boards, 5 assists and a steal against only 2 turnovers.  Another positive was Hailey Swain's 20 points, the most a freshman had scored this season.

All of this looks good for the ACC tournament.  To be a true Cinderella story, Stanford has to get to the Big Dance.  You can’t lose your glass slipper unless you go to the dance.