Mark Twain on Mistakes --June Thoughts on Stanford Women's Basketball

 

Warren Grimes

It’s been a turbulent Spring.   The team has lost seven players who transferred, four of them who were starters for most of the year (and a fifth who was in the regular rotation).  Public accounts suggest that at least some of the players felt mal treated.  Discontent at whatever level may have been exacerbated by the NCAA chaos generated by NIL and open transfer rules.  Congress is considering legislation to address some of these issues, but Stanford must focus on what it can control.

I have no inside information on the source of the discontent.  Coaches are people and, like everyone else I know, make mistakes.   As a life-long teacher, I made my share of them.   I was fortunate to learn and benefit from them.  As Mark Twain said: "Good decisions come from experience. Experience comes from making bad decisions."

So can the current head coach and her staff learn from past mistakes?  Coaching for a high profile team means operating in a fishbowl.  Teachers are judged by their students.  So too with a coach, but coaching is less tolerant and less forgiving of mistakes.  Yes, players will be acute observers of a coach’s performance, but those who pass judgment on a coach  include players’ families, athletic administrators, alumni, fans, future recruits, the press, and probably Emily Post (if she follows basketball).  Tolerance for a coach’s mistakes will be much lower than for most teachers.

The one plus that a coach has is that if she wins, tolerance for mistakes suddenly becomes much greater.  Mistakes will be ignored and the AD will instead offer a contract renewal with a salary hike.  I’m sure that Tara VanDerveer made her share of mistakes – and probably learned from many of them.  Meanwhile, she was winning games at a very high rate, along with league and tournament championships. 

In the one extended conversation I had with VanDerveer, she told me that she could never have coached at Stanford the way that Pat Summitt coached at Tennessee.  At the time of the exchange, Summitt had just locked her players out of a new locker room, intending this as an incentive for more intense practices.  That wouldn’t work at Stanford, VanDerveer said -- the players wouldn’t put up with it.  What Coach VanDerveer said a decade or more ago must be truer today, when players are free to transfer with no penalty.

So for Coach Paye, the key is building morale, chemistry, and a winning team.  She will have the benefit of a new Assistant Coach, said to be skilled at player development, and seven new players, three transfers and four freshmen.  The five returning veterans include one starter (Swain) and two regular rotation players (Eschmeyer and Ijiwoye).  All three of the transfers either started or were major rotation players for their former teams.  Jordyn Wheeler, a freshman guard, is performing very well for Team Canada this summer.

I hope that Coach Paye and her staff will favor carrots over sticks and can build the team chemistry and morale needed to be a tournament team next season.  No guarantees, but I’m with Mark Twain. 

Reflections on the Season: Uncertainty and Hope for the Next

Warren Grimes

Stanford’s season ended with the team’s 76-61 loss to BYU in the WBIT quarterfinals.  Stanford played to seed but did not play its best against BYU.  The team shot only 16% from distance and was outboarded 53 to 36.  On the plus side, the team had only six turnovers (to BYU’s 15), had 9 steals (to BYU’s 2).  Two players showed consistent post-season grit:  Courtney Ogden had 26 points (and averaged 18.3 in the three WBIT games).  Chloe Clardy had 17 points and 3 steals (and averaged 16.3 points in the tournament).  In the early fourth quarter, Stanford trailed by just one, but ran out of gas and was outscored 26 to 12 in the quarter. 

Stanford modestly improved its record over last season but did not play up to preseason predictions and hopes.  A key disappointment was the failure to make the NCAA tournament for the second straight season.  Going into next season, Stanford has, in theory, all of its late season starters coming back.  Ogden’s and Swaine’s late season improvements are encouraging.  Clardy is a money player, and so is Agara.  Somfai was an ACC all freshman team selection and probably next in line (after the Syracuse player) for the ACC rookie of the year selection.  Stanford was tested on depth, particularly when Somfai chose not to participate in the WBIT tournament.

The transfer portal is on everyone’s mind, and I mean everyone (players, coaches, and fans).  At least one of the team’s starters, Somfai, is said to be open to discussions with other teams.  The transfer portal is an issue not just for Stanford but for most teams, including the high performing UCLA team.  In an LA Times story, head coach Cori Close said: “I’ve never been as tired as I’ve been in the last two years.”   Close went on to say: “How do we now figure out this transfer portal?  Let’s not complain about it.  Let’s have solutions.” 

Close’s team benefitted from the transfer of former Stanford player Lauren Betts and two other UCLA starters who transferred from other schools.  While professing to support NIL for players, Close says that the sport needs boundaries, needs infrastructure, needs competitive equity, and needs transparency.  I’ll second that. 

The details of what boundaries and transparency look like are up for debate.  Some stability and reward for player loyalty must be part of the system.  Here are two suggestions.  Some sort of modest penalty should be imposed on transfers.  It could be the old rule that a transferring player must sit out a season (with or without a lost year of eligibility).  Or perhaps a player could be benched for just a half-season, allowing a transferee to start playing for her new team on January 15.  A second suggestion is that all amounts paid to a player by the school or by outsiders under NIL arrangements would have to be reported to the school and made public.  These changes, however modest they sound, might have to be approved by the Antitrust Division of the Justice Department or by congressional legislation. 

Coach Paye has emphasized that players who sign with Stanford benefit from the team’s reputation and the value of a Stanford education.  Will that be enough to persuade all of this year’s players to return?  I genuinely hope that it will be, but every player is free to decide what’s in her self-interest.  Fans want their players to come back and be part of a long-term, unselfish and high-achieving unit.   Team loyalty is good for the sport, good for the coaching staff’s restful nights, and probably good for the players in the long term.  In terms of player development, building chemistry, and fan support, the transfer portal is a major distraction, and a perverse one.  Attracting dedicated and qualified coaches could be undercut if a team has to be reconstructed every year.  

To Lara Somfai, and any other Stanford player considering the portal, we don't get to vote, but we'd love to be your best and most loyal fans next season.

The WBIT: A Window Into Stanford's Future?

 

Warren Grimes

Stanford is a #2 seed in the WBIT starting this Thursday.  That’s not where Stanford wanted to be, but every game and every tournament is a new opportunity.  Stanford can make major noise in this tournament – even win it – but to do so the team must be methodical, resilient, and relentless.  One game at a time.  A strong tournament showing could be a great morale boost for the team going on to the next season.

For the most part, I liked the way the season ended.  Stanford played great team basketball in decimating Clemson in the last regular season game.  Against Miami in the ACC tournament opener, Stanford showed resilience and great three point-shooting (44% for the game).  The fourth quarter comeback, outscoring Miami 18 to 5 to force overtime, was almost a Cinderella story.   Courtney Ogden’s 22 points, and Hailee Swain’s 17 (4-7 three pointers) were the kind of post season play that makes history.  Alas, the Cardinal could not stop Miami’s monster center (Ra Shaya Kyle had 25 points on 10 for 12 shooting).  Stanford ran out of gas in the overtime.

The seven-player rotation against Miami illustrates a continuing concern with depth – just six players had over 95% of the playing time in this overtime game.  That’s an issue in a single elimination tournament with up to 5 games played in a 13-day span.   Still, in many ways, this Stanford team has achieved what was expected.   The season records show three top scoring juniors (Nunu Agara, Courtney Ogden, and Chloe Clardy) followed closely by the three top scoring freshmen (Lara Somfai, Hailee Swain, and Alex Eschmeyer).  Five of those six are averaging over 10 points per game.  There is genuine diversity in the Stanford offense and multi-faceted challenges facing the defending opponent.  Stanford could play its large lineup, with Eschmeyer, Somfai, Agara, and Ogden, all 6’1” or taller, or it could go smaller with quickness featuring Ogden, Swain, Clardy and Shay Ijiwoye. 

In late season, two players have shown improvement and exceptional moxie: Courtney Ogden (who has been the top scorer in several recent contests) and Hailee Swain (who is playing her best basketball and played all but 13 seconds of the Miami overtime game).  They were the high scorers against Miami.   To win its way into the end game, the team needs these two late bloomers and each of the other major contributors to put it together.  If one player gets doubled, the others must exploit and dismantle the defense.  Shay Ijiwoye is another key.  Her intensity and quickness can inspire the defense and unravel an opponent.

My fantasy is for a rematch against Miami in the end game, this time with a different ending. As far as next year, I am hoping Stanford can take an example from the Duke women's team.   After a disappointing season, Duke went on to be a dominant ACC team in the following two seasons.

 

Stanford Finds Its March Offense: A Seven Player Juggernaught?

 

Warren Grimes

Last year, on Sunday, December 14, Stanford defeated California in its first conference game of the season.  Stanford was 9-2 overall.  Preseason predictions had Stanford finishing the season in 6^th place in the ACC.  That seemed an overly cautious prediction given Stanford’s recruiting class that included three high school All Americans.  An NCAA tournament birth seemed assured.  The freshmen, two of whom had started all 11 games, seemed destined to get even better.

If someone had told me then that Stanford would finish the conference season in 13^th place, I would have been quite disappointed – and a bit incredulous. 

There’s another side to this story.  If, on December 14, I had settled down for a long Winter’s nap – I mean a Rip Van Winkle-type nap that lasted for weeks – only to wake up at Maples in time to see the March 1 game against Clemson, I would have slept through all of the Sturm and Drang of the mid-conference season.  Watching the Clemson game, I would have thought, just as predicted, that Stanford had become an elite, top-ten team.   Stanford methodically dismembered Clemson, winning by 35 points and racking up 87 points against a team that had held opponents to an average of 58 points per game.    

If someone next to me told me that in the previous game, Stanford had bested SMU by 30 points, I would have nodded and said to myself, “Yup, just as expected.”  If the same person happened to mention that freshman Lara Somfai had four times been selected for conference freshman of the week, my thought would have been “yes, that’s not surprising.”

Of course, once I had fully awakened from my Rip Van Winkle-sleep, I would have realized that the journey to the last two games was vastly different, and much more of a Cinderella story.  Stanford, after losing Nunu Agara and Talana Lepolo to injury, had lost 8 of the last 9 conference games before winning the last three.  Stanford had finished with an overall losing record in the ACC (8-10).

Stanford found its offensive rhythm in the final conference games thanks to a seven-player rotation that included its three top scoring juniors (Agara, Chloe Clardy, and Courtney Ogden) and the team’s next three highest scorers (freshmen All-Americans Lara Somfai, Hailey Swain, and Alexandra Eschmeyer) plus sophomore Shay Ijiwoye.   Crisp interior passing and lots of movement led to many uncontested layups.  That’s Stanford’s March basketball pedigree.  A notable change for the last three games was Ijiwoye’s insertion into the starting lineup as the point guard.  Against Clemson, Ijiwoye had only 4 points, but garnished that with 4 boards, 5 assists and a steal against only 2 turnovers.  Another positive was Hailey Swain's 20 points, the most a freshman had scored this season.

All of this looks good for the ACC tournament.  To be a true Cinderella story, Stanford has to get to the Big Dance.  You can’t lose your glass slipper unless you go to the dance.  

Preview of the Miami and Florida State teams

Miami is the higher ranked team but both teams have similar ACC records.  With Nunu in the rotation we have a much better chance of winning these two road games.  Miami has played FSU twice and they each won at home.  The condensed game highlights from the game played in Miami is included below.

Feb 18 at 5 pm PST vs Miami

Miami Website

Miami is 13-12 and 5-9 in league play. Their net ranking is #56 vs Stanford at #43.

Ra Shaya Kyle, 6-6 Grad Student Center,  is averaging 16 points and 10 rebounds.

Gal Raviv, 5-9 Soph Guard,  is averaging 13 ppg. 

Amarachi Kimpson, 5-8 Jr Guard,  is averaging 12 ppg.

Miami shoots 30% from three. 

10:56 Condensed Game in Jan - Miami 89 FSU 73 at Miami

For Miami, Ra Shaya Kyle scored a career-high 30 points to go with 10 rebounds. Gal Raviv finished the game with 13 points, nine assists, and two rebounds. Amarachi Kimpson made four three-pointers and scored 17 points. For Florida State, Sole Williams had 19 points, four rebounds, three assists, and a steal.

 

Feb 22 at 11 am PST vs Florida State.  

FSU Website

Florida State is 9-17 and 4-10 in league play.  Their net ranking is #108.

Sole Williams is, 5-9 Jr Guard, is averaging 15 ppg. 

Jasmine Shavers, 5-8 Sr Guard, is averaging 12 ppg.  

8 of the 10 players are transfers. 

Amaya Bonner transferred from Cal and is averaging 6 ppg. 

Nunu brings energy and drive – and Stanford suffers tough Loss

 

Warren Grimes

In late January, Nunu Agara went out with her injury late in the Cal game and missed the next five games. Without Agara, Stanford rotated just 7 players and went 1-4.  Pittsburgh was the only W.  Making the Big Dance seemed a foregone conclusion before Agara went out.  Now, even with Agara back, it seems doubtful.

Agara came back for the Virginia game and played with energy and intensity.  It wasn’t enough.  It was a one possession game at the end.   But Stanford’s late fourth-quarter scoring draught sealed the team’s fate.

There were some things to like about the Virginia game.  The return of Agara is at the top of the list.  She scored 21 points while playing for 38 minutes.

Hailey Swain had a great all-around game with a team-leading 6 boards, 5 steals, and 13 points.  The steals stand out – more of those could contribute to a strong season’s end.

Ogden (10 points) and Clardy (12 points) were also in double digits.

The Stanford team, which seemed to have lots of depth at season’s outset, no longer does.  Stanford played four players for 31 minutes or more, with Agara, Swain, and Clardy all playing 35 or more.  Compare that to Virginia, which had only one player on the floor for more than 25 minutes (Kymora Johnson played for 37 and was Virginia’s top scorer).  Virginia had 36 points from the bench, compared to Stanford’s 6. 

The lack of depth was more of a factor because of Lara Somfai’s foul difficulties.  She had her first foul with just over 2 minutes gone in the first quarter.  She sat down, then came back in the second quarter only to draw her second.  Coming back at the end of the second quarter, she drew her third.  These issues might not matter except that Stanford really needs Somfai in the game.  Somfai is a strong candidate for conference rookie of the year, for good reason.  She managed to play for 25 minutes, but one wonders whether her contribution in the fourth quarter was constrained by the four fouls hanging around her neck.  Virginia, a physical team, outrebounded Stanford 37 to 27, a stat that might have looked different if Somfai had been in the game for more minutes.

Stanford shot under 20% from distance, another reason the team came up short. 

So what is the prognosis for the rest of the season?  I can’t comfortably predict an NCAA bid, but I very much want this team to show its best side in the next three weeks.  The team is hard-working, seems to have good chemistry, and is capable of winning its last four conference games.  Add one or two wins in the ACC tournament and you have an almost  Cinderella ending to a tough season. 

After Four Losses, What Will February Bring?

 

Warren Grimes

Stanford has lost four in a row, including the last two at Maples.  Fans may understandably ask, is this just a repeat of last year?   

Last season, Stanford began with a winning record, then hit the down button once the conference season began.  

Last season, Stanford was struggling in ACC competion, then, in mid-season, lost Nunu Agara, the top scorer and rebounder.

Last season, Stanford struggled in frustration against the ACC’s top teams.

Not much difference this year.

Well, there are some differences.  For one, this season, Stanford beat North Carolina in overtime, on the road.

This season, Stanford has started two freshmen from the get-go, and, in the last two games, has had three freshmen starters.  All three are on an improvement curve and are likely, barring injury, to play their best basketball in February.  Lara Somfai has struggled in her last two outings, but she is still a candidate for conference freshman of the year.

Call them explanations or excuses, but all four losses were against very good teams.  Louisville was #1 in the conference and #7 in the national poll.  Stanford played the last two games with a 7-player rotation (Haley Swain played 40 minutes in the last game). The game against Hidalgo & Friends (aka Notre Dame) featured a 37-point performance for Hidalgo (47% of the team’s points).  The Irish also had a seven-player rotation, but Hidalgo’s presence was like an extra player on the floor. 

How much were the last three games affected by Nunu Agara’s absence?  There’s no point in sugarcoating it: Agara has been a critical player for Stanford.  She tops the list in points and offensive boards.  When she is in lineup, opposing coaches must plan their defense to hold Agara in check.  That gives other players, including Somfai and Eschmeyer, more options to score.   It was no accident that, playing without Agara, Stanford got out-boarded by both Louisville and Notre Dame. 

Not knowing Agara’s status, what will Stanford do in February with its seven-player rotation, starting Eschmeyer in place of Agara and Clardy in place of Lepolo?   Stanford still has options.  Various players stepped up in all three of the Bay Area losses.   All three of the freshmen scored double digits against Cal (Somfai 16, Eschmeyer 16, and Swain 10).  Somfai’s last second three-pointer took the game into overtime.  Eschmeyer, coming off the bench, had a career-high 16 points and 7 boards.  Against Notre Dame, she had a similar line. 

Agara’s junior classmates have continued to contribute, with Ogden offering 23 points and 10 boards against Notre Dame.  Ogden had 16 points against Louisville.  Clardy is always there, averaging 15.3 points in the last three games.

Replacing Lepolo is a challenge because of her steady leadership and defense, but Swain and Ijiwoye have stepped up.  Swaine has been in double figures each of the last three games, averaging 10.3 points.  Ijiwoye had 15 points against Louisville. 

So, Agara’s return would be a major plus, but Stanford in February will learn to adjust and be competitive in all its games, with (at least) seven players fighting to make it a winning month.  

The Coach as a Cheer Leader – How to Respond to Tough Losses

 

Warren Grimes

I’m a career teacher.  I’ve learned that enthusiasm is a key to good teaching.   If I announce that today’s class will be a yawner, students won’t be optimal learners.  Being a cheer leader is even more important for a coach.  Win or lose, staying optimistic and focused is vital if the coach hopes to motivate players to continue to work hard and develop their skills. 

In the past two weekends, Stanford split games, winning two against relatively weak opponents, and losing two hard-fought games against more elite teams.  The losses came against Duke (home) and Syracuse (away).  Both losses were deflating, in part because anyone watching those games could see the intensity of Stanford players.  That was evident, for example, in the rebounding statistics.  Stanford outboarded Duke 43-37 and had a 40-32 advantage against Syracuse.  Stanford players played with heart and focus and still came up short.

So what does a coach say to her team after difficult losses?  Anyone who has watched a losing coach’s press conference knows the drill.  The coach talks about what players can learn from the game and how to improve for the next one.   The goal is always to get the team to peak by season’s end. 

So is this Stanford team getting better?   There are obvious signs that it is.  Take rebounding.  Stanford continues to win rebounding battles, but with a difference.  Coming off the bench, Alexandra Eschmeyer had 11 boards against Wake Forest and 6 against Duke.  And the guards are seizing opportunities to grab loose balls while the bigs are blocking one another out.  Shay Ijiwoye has darted in from the perimeter to grab 5 boards against both Wake Forest and Boston College.  Chloe Clardy had 4 boards each against Duke and Syracuse.

Another example of improvement is Lara Somfai.  She had an off game against Duke, shooting 1 for 9 and playing less than 17 minutes.  Perhaps learning to take what the defense gives you, Somfai scored a team-high 17 points against Syracuse.  If the Syracuse defense is focusing on Nunu Agara, take advantage.  Somfai did exactly that.

Freshmen, with more to learn, generally have the fastest learning curve.  Hailee Swain had 15 points, 7 boards, 2 steals and an assist against Boston College.  The coaches deservedly gave her the most minutes of any player.  The next game against Syracuse was not so good – 0/6 shooting and 1 rebound in 22 minutes.  Swain will learn from these back-to-back experiences.  Her evolution will be critical for Stanford’s late season performance.

Alexandra Eschmeyer is still up and down as a freshman performer, but she too is showing signs of being a force.   Against Duke, she played 28 minutes, scored 10 points, had 6 rebounds, and is credited with 5 solo or assisted blocks. 

Meanwhile, the trio of juniors, Nunu Agara, Chloe Clardy, and Courtney Ogden, now occupy the top three spots in season scoring.  To make the offense more potent, each of those three and other players, including the three top-ranked freshmen, must learn how to seamlessly and quickly take what the defense is giving.  A lot of teams have followed NC State in clogging the middle.  Syracuse did that and occasionally used a zone.  By season’s end, the team needs to respond to defensive strategies quickly and without a word spoken.

Stanford now stays in the Bay Area for a road game against Cal and two tough at home matchups against Louisville and Notre Dame.  Here’s to continued improvement and some wins!

Blow-Out Loss -- Then the Best Win of the Season: Stanford in North Carolina

 

Warren Grimes

Coach Paye tells us she really likes this team.  A lot of coaches say that, but some really mean it.  After the bounce-back weekend for this Stanford team, of course Paye means it.  The thing about liking your team is that it’s a mutual kind of thing.  If a coach likes her team, it’s going to be reciprocal.  This Stanford team plays hard for themselves and their coach because the environment is one of mutual respect and appreciation. 

The North Carolina road trip began with a major slap-down, a 74 to 46 loss against NC State.  It was a cold shooting night for Stanford – just 30% overall with 15 straight misses in the second half.  Against a sagging NC State defense, three-point shooting would have been a remedy.  From distance, however, the team converted just 17% of its 23 attempts.   Stanford was decisively out boarded and had only 7 points from the bench.  One reason for that was the absence of Chloe Clardy on concussion protocol.

While the NC State game was being played, Clardy was on a plane to North Carolina to rejoin the team.  Her return was a good sign, and Stanford showed up ready to play on Sunday.  The North Carolina Tarheels did not sag on defense, creating a markedly different challenge.  While Stanford trailed for most of this game, they fought throughout and never trailed by more than 7 points.   They won the fourth quarter, and had a shot at winning in regulation (Clardy missed a last second contested layup). 

In overtime, playing without Nunu Agara, they got the edge and then converted free throws to seal a 77-72 victory.  Agara had foul trouble, was limited to 6 points and 4 boards, and played only 18 minutes.  The win was genuinely a team win, with 9 players playing meaningful minutes.  Ogden had a team high 21 and made lots of critical shots in the fourth quarter and overtime.  Somfai had 13 points and 8 boards.  The third and fourth highest scorers came from the bench – Clardy had 12 points (and a team high 9 boards) while Alex Eschmeyer added 10 points in just under 8 minutes.  Her role was pivotal with Agara on the bench in most of the fourth quarter and overtime.  Overall, the team shot 45% and 35% from distance.  Stanford guards had 18 of the team’s 40 rebounds.  That had to be more than an accident -- the coaches gave the guards a green light to find the gaps between bigs busy blocking one another out.  What a difference from NC State.

Yes, this was a big win, on the road against the 17^th ranked team in the nation.  It was a depressing loss for former Stanford player, point guard Indya Nivar, who led the Tarheels with 3 assists and 4 steals.  North Carolina had leads of 7 points several times and led for almost 34 minutes of this game.  In the fourth quarter and overtime, they could not match Stanford’s intensity and team chemistry.

In a tie game that goes to overtime, every play by every player can be pivotal.  A fair account of this win, however, is not complete without mention of Shay “The Disruptor” Ijiwoye.  She had a very positive stat line: 5 boards, 4 points, 1 assist and 1 steal.  The 5 boards are impressive for the smallest player on the team, but stats don’t tell the full story for this player because her disruptive role often doesn’t show in statistics.   My favorite play?  Late in overtime, Ijiwoye came storming in from the perimeter to grab an offensive board from the bigs on both teams, put up and missed a follow-up shot, then grabbed her own board only to be double-teamed by Carolina players.  She fought off both, barely managed to get the ball to Talana Lepolo, who fed Ogden on the perimeter.  At this point, Carolina defenders were distracted.  Ogden had an open lane for a left-handed layup, giving Stanford a four-point lead that the team padded with last-minute free throw conversions.  That was it.

Yes, Ijiwoye is just one of the nine players who made a difference in this upset win.  But Shay is quick, strong, has hops, and, most of all, non-stop intensity.  She's an important part of Stanford chemistry that makes this team a contender. 

December Report: Courtney Ogden, Consistency, and a Coalescing Team

 

Warren Grimes

December began with a tough loss to Tennessee but ended on a high note for this young Stanford team.  Stanford won three games against serious opponents, all former Pac 12 rivals (California, Washington, and Oregon).   It ended with an 82-50 win over a good but overmatched Cornell team.

More than anything else, the last four games showed the emergence of Courtney “Smooth-Operator” Ogden.  Her game has long shown promise.  Ogden was a Pac-12 honorable mention all-freshman her first year.  She saw more time including a late season start in her sophomore year.  But Ogden really emerged from the shadows against Cal when she had her 25-point career day.  In the last four games, Ogden has averaged 18 points, more than any other Stanford player. 

Coach Paye says that Ogden is in basketball heaven because she has permission to launch any open shot.  Ogden has moved from 5^th to 4^th in season scoring totals and, if she can continue at this level, will move still higher.  More than just the point totals, the real promise of this player is her ability to score in a variety of creative ways, play defense, and generate turnovers.   Watching Ogden maneuver with confidence to create shots brings back memories of another high-scoring Stanford forward – Haley Jones.  Ogden’s emergence as a junior is well timed to give Stanford a more diversified offense entering the conference season.

In each of the three games against former Pac-12 opponents, Stanford needed inspiration going into the fourth quarter.  To find this, the coaches chose to call not Ghost Busters, but the “Disruptor,” a.k.a. Shay Ijiwoye.  Shortest member of the team, yes, but no player is taller in spirit.  Ijiwoye is strong, quick, and highly motivated.  She defends, steals, and scores breakaway layups, and does this in a manner that inspires teammates.  Ijiwoye has 11 steals this season, well behind Chloe Clardy’s 25.  But on a per minute basis, Ijiwoye has .09 steals per minute to Clardy’s .06.   Ijiwoye also manages to generate opponent turnovers even when she is not credited with a steal.  On defense, she can alternate between in-your-face guarding and backing off an opponent to unexpectedly leap to deflect an attempted pass.

Ijiwoye has been a regular in the rotation but unexpectedly did not play in three consecutive games (against CSU, Tennessee, and California).  Whatever the reason, she came back with a purpose to be a difference-maker against Washington, Oregon, and Cornell.  One perhaps unexpected strength of Ijiwoye’s game is her ability as a rebounding guard.  Her 10 boards give her .084 boards per minute, above Talana Lepolo’s .044 pace and on a par with the taller Hailey Swain’s .088 boards per minute.

One feature of this season’s team is the consistency in the starting lineup.  Perhaps a slight difference from her predecessor, Coach Paye has started the same players in every game but one.  Against Washington, Nunu Agara did not start or play because of an injury.  

The two freshmen in the starting lineup, Lara Somfai and Hailee Swain, have had to deal with turnovers, but have shown marked improvement since the Tennessee game.  Meanwhile, Somfai is the leading rebounder, specializing in defensive boards.  When foul trouble has not limited her minutes, Stanford has consistently out-boarded opponents.  Somfai is also the team’s leading shot blocker and third leading scorer, averaging 11.1 points per game.  She again received the ACC freshman of the week designation this week, the third time she has won it by herself or with another freshman.

Hailee Swain is not far behind.  She’s close to a double-digit scoring average (9.6 per game).  Her three-point shooting has been a disappointment so far but Swain’s ability to defend, steal and create show great promise.  Swain is likely to be a major player in Stanford’s fast break offense and a creator when the shot clock is winding down.

Indeed, the entire team shows signs of coalescing.  Fourth quarter performance against each of the three Pac-12 rivals was impressive.  Stanford will be the underdog in its upcoming road games against North Carolina State and North Carolina.  Regardless of rankings, no opponent can afford to take Stanford for granted.

 

 

Courtney Ogden Electrifies Maples: A Career Day Against a Very Good Cal Team

 

Warren Grimes

The Cal Bears are a blossoming women’s basketball team.  That’s somewhat surprising, given that their starting lineup consists of four players not on last year’s team.  Two are freshmen. Tayor Barnes played for 38 plus minutes scoring 16 points and Aliyahna Morris played for 37 minutes contributing 12 points.  Both freshmen are three-point shooters.  Two more starters are transfers.  Sakima Morris is a 6’5” big who transferred from South Carolina. Morris was a defensive presence who, once she got position, was almost impossible to stop on offense.  And Miracle Sheppard came to Cal from LSU, playing for 30 minutes and scoring 9 points. 

How good is Cal?  Well, they scored 69 points against a stingy Stanford defense.  That’s the largest amount Stanford has allowed against any opponent this season.  Tennessee bested Stanford but could only put up 65.   Cudos to Charmin Smith for recruiting this team and getting them to play together.   Smith must deal with the NIL world of transfers but seems to do it well.  Like Stanford, Cal is a young team with great growth potential.  They are going to make life difficult for ACC opponents.

Stanford prevailed over Cal despite a five-point deficit early in the fourth quarter.   Courtney Ogden was a standout in this Stanford victory.  Her career-high 25 points, supplemented by 7 boards, 2 assists, and 0 turnovers, came with 36 minutes on the floor, the most of any Stanford player.   Ogden may have benefited because the Cal defense was focused on others (Agara, Clardy, and Somfai are Stanford’s top scorers this season) but give Courtney credit for exploiting whatever the defense gave her.  Ogden scored from everywhere, including an early-game three-pointer.  She followed up with lots of creative drives to the basket converting both uncontested layups and contested shots that resulted in an “and-one.”  My two favorite shots were a runner, launched with touch in the last seconds of the first half, and a falling back jumper that commentator Mary Murphy called a WNBA shot.  Another strength of Ogden’s game was her efficiency.  She converted on 10 of 12 shots from the field and made 4 of 5 free throws.  This came during a game when her mates were missing a lot of close in shots (Stanford shot just 44% for the game).

So why is Ogden’s performance important?  Diversity is essential for a great team.  When the defense focuses on interior mainstays like Agara and Somfai, the team needs options.  Both Agara and Somfai can shoot threes, so they can clear out to allow a player like Ogden to move and create.  Ogden’s game could also be a model for a player like Hailey Swain, who has speed, quickness, and the ability to create.  Finally, Ogden may be finding her voice as a team leader.  That too should contribute to making Stanford a top ten team.

Both Ogden (POW) and Lara Somfai (FOW) received conference awards for their performances last Sunday.  Somfai had another double-double (12 points and 13 boards).  She also converted 2 of 3 three-point shots.  Somfai’s outside shooting will be critical if a defense collapses in the middle.  Meanwhile, Somfai has now caught and surpassed Agara in total rebounds.  She also had 3 blocks and 2 block assists against Cal.

Stanford seems to have settled into an eight-player rotation in hotly contested games.  Chloe Clardy comes off the bench but typically gets more minutes than some of the starters.  She had 13 points against Cal, including 3 of 4 three-point shots.  The other two off the bench have been Alex Eschmeyer and Mary Ashley Stevenson. 

With all the young talent on this team, nothing is chiseled in stone.  Enjoy the run and expect the unexpected.  A tough game against another very good team, Washington, is next.

The Season Gets Serious -- Where Is This Team?

 

Warren Grimes

Last season, Stanford started out well, winning against weaker opponents and coming close to upsetting LSU on their home court.  Then things got tough.  Stanford had a losing record in the ACC and failed to make the Big Dance.

This season, Stanford has had another strong start, losing only in competitive games against FGCU and Tennessee.  The ACC season begins later this week against Cal, a team that bested Stanford twice last year.  Uncertainty and tough games ahead, but I’m betting on Stanford bettering last season’s conference season by a significant margin. 

One reason for optimism: Stanford has two freshmen in the starting lineup that should have a rapid learning curve.  Coach Paye has shown confidence in Hailee Swain and Lara Somfai, keeping them in the starting lineup through mistakes and learning issues. 

Somfai has already impressed with her interior toughness.  She’s the team’s second leading rebounder (averaging 8.6 per game) and third leading scorer (10.7 per game).  Somfai had foul trouble against FGCU and Tennessee.  When able to stay on the floor, she is a beast on the boards, gathering 16 against CSU.  Staying near the basket on defense, Somfai has specialized in defensive boards, leading Agara 69 to 54 in this category. 

Both Somfai and her fellow starting freshmen Swain are shooting below 20% from the three-point line, something likely to improve with experience.  Swain is the real deal, showing that she can play big when it matters.  Against Tennessee, Swain converted her only three-point attempt and contributed 14 points (tied for team high) while adding 7 boards and 3 assists.

Juniors Nunu Agara, Chloe Clardy, and Courtney Ogden are the 1^st, 2^nd, and 5^th leading scorers on the team.  All three of them are converting 3-point shots at 30% or higher.  Agara is the leading offensive rebounder while Clardy, coming off the bench, is a leader in assists and steals.  Clardy scored the winning basket in a last second drive to the hoop against CSU. 

There are a lot of other moving parts to the puzzle that will carry Stanford against ACC opposition.  Tennessee won against Stanford because they forced 30 turnovers that generated 25 points.  Cut down those numbers by a third and Stanford could easily have bested Tennessee.  Talana Lepolo had 3 assists, and 2 steals against only 2 turnovers against the Volunteers.  I’m excited to see whether and how three other talented freshmen can contribute, including Alex Eschmeyer who is shooting threes at 40% and is a leader in blocks, Carly Amborn, who is shooting 100% on threes (6 for 6), and Nora Ezike, who got limited minutes because of an injury but has ample talent to be a major contributor.

Bring it on!

It’s Not Just Defense: Stanford Unveils New 98-Point Offense

 

Warren Grimes

Coach Paye has repeatedly reminded us that defense and rebounding are the keys to success.  Good point.  The team has compiled a 7-0 start by allowing opponents an average of just 48.7 points per game.  It has also doubled the rebounds of several opponents and has an average 16.3 boards per game advantage over opponents.  There is, however, more to the story.

Against Lehigh, a tournament team last year, Stanford won by 55 points.  Part of this formula was holding the Mountain Hawks to just 43 points.  Also important was the 98 points that Stanford scored.  Yes, that point total was sparked by turnovers and good defense, but there was also the matter of a great offensive performance.

Nunu Agara was a standout.  She had a season-high 24 points while converting every one of her 10 shots (one was a three-pointer).  Agara is not only back; she’s better than ever.  Previously against UC Davis, Agara had 16 points and 16 boards.  Her intensity and focus has now given her the team lead in points per game (14.9) to go along with her leading rebounds per game average (8.7).

Of course, it wasn’t just Agara.  Four other players were in double digit territory, including fellow junior Mary Ashley Stevenson (10 points).   The other three were freshmen: Lara Somfai added 15 points; Hailee Swaine had 12 and Carly Amborn had 10.  I liked the more diverse nature of Swaine’s points, with drives that ended with creative shot making and a stop-and-pop jump shot. 

By far the most surprising addition to double digit scoring was Carly Amborn, who played just over seven minutes in the fourth quarter.  Amborn may have discovered the missing 11th commandment: Thou shalt not miss!  She has yet to miss a shot this season.  She’s made all five of her three-point shots and all six of her free throws.  Two-point shots?   Hasn’t taken any, but why bother.  Amborn also contributed 4 boards and an assist in the 7 minutes she played.  Yes, some of her floor time was against Lehigh reserves, but this sort of performance should win her more floor time.

Lara Somfai is the team’s second leading rebounder and third leading scorer, and she continues to get better.  Alexander Eschmeyer led the team in rebounds against Lehigh and is tied with Somfai in blocks (7 each). 

The bottom line on the offensive display against Lehigh was fast break points, the crisp interior passing and improved three-point shooting (54% for the game).  Five different players converted three-pointers, with Chloe Clardy and Amborn getting two each.

Then there’s the Stanford depth, something that will be needed when Stanford plays two games in two days this weekend in Las Vegas.

Road Trip: Junior Jubilee

 

Warren Grimes

In a preseason statement to the press, Coach Kate Paye, after praising the talented incoming freshmen, said that the team, when the going got tough, would still rely on its veteran players to get it done.   That statement was prescient for the two-game road trip to the Northwest.   The veterans, particularly four junior players, played a huge role in victories over Washington State and Gonzaga.

Let’s start with Chloe Clardy, a player who has yet to start a single game this season.  Don’t be fooled.  Clardy comes off the bench to be, arguably, the most productive player on the team.  Clardy leads the team in minutes (30 min. per game), in scoring (13.2 per game), and in three-point conversions.  That’s just for starters.  Clardy has more than twice as many steals as any other teammate.  She’s a close second to Talana Lepolo in assists.  And she’s shooting free throws at 87.5%.  How many times have you seen statistics like that for a player that isn’t in the starting lineup?

If you are an opponent, Clardy will break your heart.  Against Gonzaga, a lurking Clardy stole an inbound pass and immediately put in an under-the-basket, falling-down shot that sparked a late first half turnaround for Stanford, closing a 12-point Gonzaga advantage to just 2 points at the end of the half.  Clardy scored a team-high 20 points against the Zags.

The list of juniors who excelled on this road trip goes on.   Nunu Agara showed fire and intensity in putting up a double-double against the Zags.   She had 16 points and 11 boards to go along with 2 blocks and 3 steals. Her focused second-half performance was vital to Stanford overcoming a deficit and pulling away to a comfortable margin.

Next on the list is Courtney Ogden.  It’s worth recalling that Ogden was the highest ranked high school recruit (5 stars) in her Stanford freshman class.  Always competitive, Ogden began showing moxie at the end of last season, earning a starting position in the final game.  This season, Ogden started all 5 games but had so-so stats for the first two games.  That changed against Cal Poly where a more intense Ogden appeared.  She had 12 points, 5 boards, 2 blocks and 2 steals in that game.  That more motivated Ogden reappeared against Gonzaga with 14 points and 6 boards accompanied by a block and a steal.  Ogden showed shot-making creativity in several drives to the basket. Over the last three games, Ogden is averaging double digit scoring (10.3 per game).

The last junior to make a major contribution was Mary Ashley Stevenson whose unselfish but intense play led to 24 minutes against Washington State and 31 minutes against Gonzaga.  She contributed points, boards and assists in both games.  Collectively these four juniors contributed 54 of the team’s 65 points (83% of the team’s total) against the Zags.

Meanwhile, the freshmen aren’t going away.  Hailee Swain led the team with 10 points against Washington State.  Inspired by their junior teammates, interior players Lara Somfai and Alexandra Eschmeyer can only get better.

After Three Games, Balance, Depth and Some Questions

 

Warren Grimes

Stanford has won its three opening games.  All were home games against talented but unranked opponents.   The average margin over these three opponents was 33.6 points.  In the most intense of these contests, Santa Clara managed to hold Stanford to a single digit lead until the final 4 minutes of the game. 

This young Stanford team has balance and depth.  Seven players are averaging 17 or more minutes on the floor.  Four players have double digit scoring averages, including freshmen starters Lara Somfai and Hailee Swain.   No one is dominating scoring stats.   Somfai leads the way with a double-double average (14.3 points and 10.3 boards), followed by veterans Nunu Agara (13 points), Chloe Clardy (12.7 points) and freshman Hailee Swain (12.3 points).  Just below the double-digit threshold are Talana Lepolo (8.7 points) and Alexandra Eschmeyer (8 points).

Although this margin will likely fall as stronger opponents are scheduled, the team is averaging 19 more boards than its opponents.   Two of the top three rebounders are freshmen: Somfai is averaging 10.3 followed by Agara’s 7.3 and Eschmeyer’s 6.7.

Two of the team’s top performers have come off the bench in all three games.  Chloe Clardy has more total minutes than anyone else (29.5 average), is third in scoring, leads the team in steals, and is tied for the lead in three-point conversions.  Clardy is a personal favorite – smooth and relentless.  Eschmeyer is also coming off the bench to be an interior force who has converted from the outside (2 of 3 three-pointers so far).  Eschmeyer failed to score in the Cal Poly game but still contributed (3 boards and 3 impressive assists). 

Another strong point so far is the team’s 81 percent free throw shooting.  I expect this team to draw its share of fouls, so conversions will be vital for success.  Stanford also has go-to players who can create as the shot clock winds down.  Nunu Agara is a proven asset but is now joined by freshmen Hailee Swain and Lara Somfai.

There are still questions.  The team has played multiple minutes with three guards on the floor (Lepolo, Swain and Clardy).  That offense should work well depending on the opponent.  Against taller teams, a different lineup may be needed.  At 6’1”, starting forward Courtney Ogden showed moxie at the end of last season but has started slowly this season.  She came alive against Cal Poly scoring 12 with 7 rebounds.  Her defensive skills, height and flexibility on offense are vital parts of the starting lineup.  Ogden is second on the team in blocks (after Eschmeyer).  To be a top team, Stanford needs consistency from Ogden. 

There is still much improvement to be had, including from players who have yet to leave a significant mark.   Freshman Carly Amborn has played less than 9 minutes so far, but she’s 3 for 3 from three-point range.  Will she win more playing time against zone defenses?

The biggest question facing  this young team is how they will perform on the road against tougher opponents.  That question will be answered shortly as Stanford heads north to play Washington State and Gonzaga.

Building a Great Team: Getting the Most From What You Have

 

Warren Grimes

Imagine a school for coaches.  Students attend this school to hone their coaching skills.  Each might be given a group of young athletes with the challenge of developing them into a great team.  A student’s success would be measured by how well their team performed.

The challenge that Kate Paye and her staff confront in guiding the diverse and talented members of this young Stanford women’s basketball team would be a great exercise for the students at the school. Of course, there is no such school.  Last Wednesday, however, we were given a window into the team-development process in Stanford’s exhibition game victory over Cal State LA.  The exhibition game reveals some of the coaches thinking about who the strong players are and how to fit the pieces together.

As outsiders, we learned in the exhibition game which players got major minutes.  The starters were three veterans and two freshmen: Talana Lepolo and Hailee Swain at the guard positions, Courtney Ogden and Lara Somfai as forwards and Nunu Agara as a center/forward.  Four other players came off the bench to get extensive minutes: freshman Alexandra Eschmeyer and veterans Chloe Clardy, Shay Ijiwoye, and Mary Ashley Stevenson.  For now at least, while not foreclosing others, the coaches are banking on this group of nine.

The overall goal of the process is getting the most from what you have.  The most minutes were given to veterans Clardy (28 minutes), Agara (25 minutes) and Lepolo (24 minutes).  Roughly 20 minutes of playing time went to each of three freshmen (Eschmeyer, Somfai, and Swaine).  A closer look suggests how the coaches hope to exploit the inherent strengths of these players.

Exploiting the Speed, Defensive Skills, and Offensive Potential of Stanford Guards

In a post game press conference, Coach Paye spoke of a strong four-guard rotation.  Indeed, this is an exceptional group, made up of freshman Swaine and veterans Lepolo, Clardy, and Ijiwoye.  Defense, speed, and transition appear to be high on the list of the coaches’ strategic goals.

Swaine is a top ten high school recruit with exceptional speed and a flair for defense.   In the exhibition game Swaine used her quickness to score the game’s first points and a total of 8 points in the first quarter.  On defense, Swain had 2 steals.  Swain’s shooting percentage could improve – she missed some creative breakaway shots.  Speed disciplined by a determined finish should solve this problem.  Swain has great potential to be a go-to player and a defensive leader.    

Chloe Clardy was not in the starting lineup, but she ended up playing a game high 28 minutes.  That was well deserved, and not unanticipated.  Clardy was the team’s top scorer in the ACC portion of last year’s schedule.  In the exhibition, she scored a team high 20 points along with 6 boards, 2 assists, a steal and a block.  In her junior season, Clardy is on course to be one of Stanford’s all-time great guards.

Lepolo was an underrated high school recruit who as a freshman earned the starting point guard position because of her court vision, leadership, and passing skills.  After an off-year hindered by injuries, she’s back in her final year and competitive as ever.  She was given 24 minutes for good reason. 

Ijiwoye is a favorite because of her fire and quickness.  The shortest player on the team at 5’ 6”, she is one of the best rebounding guards (she had 5 boards in just 13 minutes in the exhibition).  She had 3 assists and 2 steals to go along with her two points. Ijiwoye is everywhere and a spark plug.

Exploiting the Talent, Size and Unselfishness of Stanford Interior Players

Looking at the interior, Stanford has more height and prowess in the interior than last year.  Three veterans are back, starting with junior Nunu Agara, a preseason ACC all conference pick.  Agara is powerful and quick, a very difficult one-on-one assignment for opponents.  She can score with power inside and shoot from the outside.

Courtney Ogden and Mary Ashley Stevenson are veterans who can shoot, rebound, and defend.  They have real game experience and will be part of the interior rotation. 

Additional excitement comes in the form of two high school All-Americans in the freshman class.  Lara Somfai is strong, athletic, and gifted.  At 6’3”, she has a good handle to drive the basket, can shoot the three-point shot, and can battle on the interior.  In 21 minutes of exhibition play, Somfai got a double-double (13 points and 10 boards).  Agara will no longer be the only strong rebounding presence.

More help comes from Alexandra Eschmeyer.  At 6’5”, she can shoot the three ball and score on the inside.  Eschmeyer used her 20 minutes of exhibition play to score 8 points, grab 5 boards, and demonstrate passing skills to assist on 3 baskets. 

All these inside players are unselfish and excellent interior passers.  The more dominant Stanford’s interior game, the more opportunity there will be for perimeter shooting (something not yet clicking in the exhibition).

Exploiting the Intangibles of Individual Players

Lexie Hull is one of my favorites of the past.  Speaking of intrasquad games, Coach VanDerveer once remarked that the team that had Lexie Hull always won.  Hull could score, rebound, and defend (she was a theft artist), but wasn’t usually the best in any of these categories.  What really set Hull apart was focus and competitiveness.  In the 2021 national championship run, Stanford had Kiana Williams, Haley Jones, and Cameron Brink, but could not have won the NCAA championship without the focused and never-say-die contribution of Lexie Hull (another soft-spoken exceptional and essential player on that team was Anna Wilson).

The intangibles that Hull brought to the game are part of the chemistry of this year’s squad.  Look at Shay Ijiwoye’s spark plug contributions in 13 minutes in the exhibition.  Or look at Talana Lepolo’s quiet leadership in her 24 minutes.  She took only one three-point shot (and made it), had 7 total points and 3 boards, and is credited with only one assist.  Hardly mind-boggling stats, but Lepolo is one of these players that seems to make everyone around her better.  She makes few mistakes (no turnovers in the exhibition). 

The coaches who observe daily practices are in the best position to assess these intangibles--and put these players on the floor to help build a winning team.

The Preseason: Rank Rankings Should Not Undermine Legitimate Excitement

 

Warren Grimes

Stanford women’s basketball enters the upcoming season without a top 25 preseason ranking.  That’s not unexpected.  ACC coaches picked last year’s team to finish in 7^th place. The team managed only an 11^th place finish.   They struggled to maintain an above .500 winning percentage, saw a long streak of NCAA tournament appearances end, and lost twice to Cal.  I still loved that team for its moxie and fight.  Stanford lost its top three scorers from the previous year and suffered a mid-season injury to its top scorer and rebounder (Nunu Agara). 

The reasons for preseason excitement include anticipated improved play from returning veterans such as Agara, Chloe Clardy, Courtney Ogden, Ashley Stevenson, and Shay Ijiwoye, the apparent recovery of point guard Talano Lepolo, and perhaps, most of all, the injection of five new freshmen, three of whom were high school All Americans.  Hailee Swaine is a top ten guard recruit who could be a team leader in scoring and defense.  The other two McDonald’s All Americans, 6’4” Lara Somfai and 6’5” Alexandra  Eschmeyer, have inside moves, can run the floor, and shoot three pointers.  Two other freshmen could diversify the team’s offense.  Carly Amborn, at 6’2’, is an outside shooter who seems suited to the three position.  And 6’2” Nora Ezike, as a member of the Nigerian women’s under-19 team, generated excitement this summer by humiliating the Chinese team with athletic second half moves that resulted in Nigeria’s upset win.  All these players could easily become part of a late season rotation that plays 10 or more minutes per game. 

So yes, there’s sound reason for optimism and excitement.  Coach Paye says that the depth of talent on the team will lead to more competitive and intense practices.

Is any of this reflected in the preseason rankings?  Apparently not.  One recent poll selected five ACC teams in the top 20: Duke (#8), NC State (#9), North Carolina (#10), Louisville (#17), and Notre Dame (#18).  Stanford was not in the top 25.  When the ACC conference rankings come out, this pattern suggests that Stanford could be selected for, at best, a 6^th place conference finish. 

All rankings are suspect, but none more so than those made in the preseason.  Such ratings, like other ratings, are a democratic process of compiling the selections of sports writers or coaches, each of whom may know a lot more about basketball than this writer.  These experts likely know a lot about the players in conferences that they closely follow.  They may also know, from media coverage, something about the strengths of top teams in the country.  What they lack is detailed knowledge about each of the 100 plus teams eligible for consideration in a nationwide poll.

When a pundit or coach passes judgment on relatively unknown teams, the voter is likely to fall back on reputation and last year’s performance.  College teams, however, change every year.  Underclassmen develop new skills, veteran players graduate, and incoming freshmen add to the mix.  Stanford’s WBB team for the upcoming season will have vastly different personnel from last year’s team (four players lost and five new ones added), so even those who follow the team closely would have difficulty making accurate predictions. 

As a matter of mathematics, rankings are likely to be less precise as you move from top 5 teams down the scale.  There may be only 5 teams that win 90% of their games, but a larger number (say 20 teams) that win 80% of the time.  That means more nuanced decisions to make as you move from top 10 to top 20 teams.   This effect may be exacerbated because those doing the rankings may have less knowledge of teams with fewer wins.

Finally, there is the issue of being a relatively new member of a conference dominated by east coast teams.  One could expect that writers and coaches involved in the ACC conference would tend to support other conference teams in making rating selections for a national poll.  There is a built-in bias to support fellow conference teams.  But many of these coaches and writers do not know Stanford tradition and strengths, perhaps relying instead upon last year’s results.

This bias won’t just affect women’s basketball.  Consider the current season for women’s soccer, where Stanford has started the season at a record-setting pace.  In the preseason rankings, ACC coaches picked Stanford to finish fifth, behind North Carolina, Notre Dame, Florida State, and Duke.  The season is still young, but so far, Stanford women’s soccer has vastly outperformed its ranking.  The undefeated team is averaging an impressive 5 goals per game, the most of any team in the nation.  By comparison, last year’s squad averaged just over 1.5 goals per game yet still made it to the final four in the NCAA tournament.   What a difference a season makes.  In early season games, Stanford reserves have come off the bench to average 1.5 goals per game in 40 minutes or less of playing time.  Meanwhile, Stanford is holding rivals to an average of 0.5 goals per game.  This season’s team has impressive depth and, as of this writing, is ranked #1 in the nation.  Injuries or other unknowns could undermine Stanford’s juggernaut beginning.  It is already crystal clear, however, that preseason rankings were grossly inaccurate. 

Outperforming expectations is easier when the preseason pundit pollsters have low-balled your team.    Stanford WBB can follow in the footsteps of their soccer-playing sisters in using depth, teamwork and intensity to win decisively.  Stanford’s end of season record, for both soccer and women’s hoops, will be based not on fallible preseason polls, but on what its talented players demand of themselves.  I’m excited for both teams (women’s volleyball too).

A Rant Over Perverse Conference Realignments -- And Some Possible Fixes

 

Warren Grimes

For the Stanford women, the season ended Thursday when the team was upset by Portland in the first round of the WBIT.  Stanford led most of the game, played good defense, but was unable to find sufficient offensive spark in the second half and overtime.  The Portland coach may have gotten the ear of the refs.  The game was called in a way that limited Nunu Agara’s inside moves and her late game participation.  Agara was the team’s clutch performer all season.  Her absence in much of the fourth quarter and in the final minute of overtime was pivotal.

I am proud of the team.  They had a difficult season but showed mettle and fight throughout.  Seniors Elena Boscana and Brooke Demetre brought us multiple highlight moments.  And fast developing freshmen and sophomores are a reason for optimism for next year.   They will be joined by a remarkable freshmen class that includes three McDonald’s All Americans.

The bigger and longer-term issue is how to fix the perverse results of conference realignments.   The troubling features of conference shifts affect all non-football sports.  They affect not only Stanford but at least 5 other former Pac-12 schools: California, Oregon, UCLA, USC, and Washington.   As a result of substantial additional travel time, the teams from all six schools are now at a comparative disadvantage when matched with conference rivals. 

The impetus for conference realignment was and is primarily the desire to maintain maximum football exposure and revenues.  Every school wants a share of gold mine football revenues.  What makes sense for football and its revenues, however, makes no sense for the rest of collegiate athletics. 

For the six former Pac-12 schools, all of them on the Pacific rim, the negative impact of realignments is obvious and severe.  Using Stanford women’s basketball as an example, let’s look at some of these negatives.

Negative Effects of Long Plane Trips and Constant time Changes -  For the Stanford women, playing in the ACC meant five long weekend trips of up to 6000 miles roundtrip for each.  Four of those trips were weekend matchups against ACC opponents.  The fifth was the ACC tournament.  Each one-way trip meant up to 5 hours in the air.  For the five roundtrip treks, that meant close to 50 hours of plane travel during the conference season (not counting local travel to and from the airport).  That’s a lot of time to be confined to an airplane. 

On top of this, four of these trips meant a three-hour time change at the destination followed by another three-hour shift on return.  That’s stress for body clocks for persons at any age.   The stress created by time changes affects not only players but coaches and other support staff who travel with the team. 

Was it an accident that Stanford women had a very respectable home game record but a miserable record on the road?  I think not.  Playing on the road is tough under any circumstances, but consider the difference between road games in the old Pac-12 and road games in the ACC: All Pac-12 games involved much shorter travel and at most a 1-hour time change (most were played in the same time zone). 

Impact on Athletic Department Budget – Paying for all this travel takes a heavy bite out of the Athletic Department’s budget.  If a road trip in the old Pac-12 usually involved less than a 1200-mile round trip, and an ACC round trip typically involves a 6000-mile round trip, travel costs are going to be much higher.  These increased costs are compounded if the school charters a plane for the team, something that I understand was done for the men’s and women’s basketball teams.

Impact on Recruiting – This impact is more difficult to predict.  Consider, however, the following.  Suppose Stanford is in a battle with Duke or South Carolina to attract a talented high school athlete.  If I am the coach at one of the Carolina schools, I am going to tell that athlete that if they choose Stanford, they will spend 50 hours on a plane during the conference season alone.  If they stay at one of the Carolina schools, they may have only 10 or 20% of that travel time during the conference season. 

This could affect not only the recruitment of players, but Stanford’s ability to attract coaches and other support staff.  Many of these folks are likely to have family obligations that make it much more attractive to have far more limited travel times.  Some Pac-12 games may involve fewer overnight stays, such as a trip to Los Angeles compared to a trip to the East Coast.

Impact on the Environment – The Los Angeles Times wrote recently about the negative effects of conference realignments on the environment.  Quite right.  If you consider that ACC travel compared to travel in the old Pac-12 means a difference of roughly 4800 additional air travel miles for each weekend road trip, and multiply this by the 5 conference road trips, for Stanford women’s BB alone this means 24,000 additional air travel miles for the team.  Now add to that the additional miles for men’s BB and for the 12 or more other conference sports, and you get a collective number of at least 240,000 additional air travel miles for Stanford teams ( The 240,000 figure is discounted  – some sports such as women’s volleyball – may have a comparable number of road trips while others, such as men’s and women’s soccer, will likely have fewer).

The total environmental impact of conference realignments for the six former Pac-12 schools will be far higher.   Cal’s travel miles should be the same as Stanford’s while the 4 schools that joined the Big Ten will have fewer miles (much of their travel will be to the Midwest, not the East Coast).   A crude estimate of total additional travel miles for the six former Pac 12 might be 1 million.   That’s not the end of it.  ACC and Big Ten teams not on the Pacific Coast will have a lot less added travel.  Still, collectively, these conference teams will have as many cross country trips as the total for the six West Coast schools.  So the total additional travel miles for all ACC and Big Ten teams may be closer to 2 million.  That’s a lot additional carbon dioxide pumped into our atmosphere, and for no good reason.

Ending unnecessary travel will not, by itself, end the climate crisis.  What is galling, however, is that six prominent academic institutions, each with environmental scientists on their faculty, would sign on to athletic arrangements that worsen global warming and that simultaneously put their non-football teams at a comparative disadvantage.

There is no need to schedule cross country trips to improve competition – The Pac-12 was a powerhouse in nearly all non-football sports.  In virtually every conference sport, the Pac-12 was one of the top two or three conferences in the country.  All that cross-country travel doesn’t improve the level of competition and, in some cases, may lessen it.

Fixing the Problem – Someone, perhaps a senior leader like Tara VanDerveer, should take the lead in calling out the insanity of current conference alignments for non-football sports.  Right now, Charmin Smith, Cori Close, and Lindsay Gottlieb are all involved in the women’s NCAA tournament.  As soon as that ends, get all the women’s BB coaches on a conference call, adding the coaches from Oregon and Washington.  Get them thinking and talking about solutions.  Then set up a zoom meeting that includes every other coach of a non-football sport from one of the Pacific rim schools.  The purpose of the meeting would be to get all of them to press their athletic directors and university presidents for a meaningful way to end this insanity.

What are the solutions?  The most comprehensive solution would be to cut football loose to make its own conference alignments while allowing non-football sports to join genuinely regional conferences that eliminate unnecessary and disadvantageous long journeys.  Notre Dame already separates football from other sports.  However, because of long-term media contracts, this across-the-board solution may be unlikely in the near term. 

There still could be meaningful short-term steps that could lessen the six schools’ comparative travel disadvantages.  Using women’s hoops as an example, the ACC and the Big Ten could agree to shorten the conference schedule, eliminating one or two of the required cross-country treks.  Replacement games could still count to conference statistics based on the quality of the opponent that a team plays.  This would allow Stanford and the other Pacific rim teams to schedule games against one another and other traditional opponents, such as Oregon State and Washington State. Similar approaches might be taken for other non-football sports.  

This proposal could encounter resistance from other conference members, some of whom might prefer to keep the former Pac-12 schools at a disadvantage by forcing them to travel more.  There are still advantages to all conference members in approving such a proposal.  It could enhance the reputation and national reach of the conferences, allowing all conference members more choice in selecting opponents.  It is also likely to contribute to fairness and long-term conference stability.  Finally, depending on how the scheme is set up, it could marginally decrease cross-country travel for all conference members.

Let’s get off the starting line.  Everyone who supports or works to foster Stanford’s non-football sports should demand action.   If you support Cal, or any of the other four Pacific rim schools, welcome aboard.  We need broad support from all six schools to make this happen.

Note:Some language in the final three paragraphs was amended on Marach 23, 2025.