Looking Forward and Back: Stanford's Small Margin for Error

Warren Grimes

Approaching the halfway point in its season, the Stanford women stand at a pivotal moment.  Will the team regain the momentum it had in November, finishing that month with a 7-1 record and high hopes to outperform preseason predictions?  Or is its path forward mired in its December-early January record of 2-6?

The un-Stanford like realities of this season so far suggest that rival California, with a 16-2 record, is the Cinderella team of the ACC.  Meanwhile, Stanford, with a 1-4 conference record, will be lucky to finish with a preseason-predicted 6^th place finish.   Perhaps even more concerning, a Stanford invitation to the NCAA tournament is now in doubt.

During the Cameron Brink years, Stanford could rely on Brink and other powerful interior players to block shots of opponents who crashed the paint.  Not this year.  For this team, defense requires players at all positions to coordinate and focus on defense.  Focus and intensity for the full 40 minutes are needed.  What may have sufficed during the Brink era will not get it done for this team.

These realities were evident in the team’s last four games.  Stanford has yet to win a single game played outside Maples.  The team was unable to seal the deal against SMU and  Creighton, teams that will struggle to finish in the top half of the conference.  Both were one-possession games, with the loss to Creighton in overtime.  Stanford recovered for a scrappy Maples victory against a solid Florida State team.  The weekend ended with a hard fought but overmatched loss to NC State.  In that last contest, Stanford won the first quarter (by 6 points) and the fourth quarter (by 11 points), statistics that should bode well.  But they weren’t nearly enough.  NC State won the second quarter (by 12 points) and decimated Stanford in the third quarter (by 19 points).  NC State’s 34-point third quarter matched its total for the first half.

There’s no shame in losing to NC State, a final four team last year with a core of guards with substantial WNBA potential.  Stanford showed some mettle with its 24-point fourth quarter, narrowing what had been a 27-point deficit to an 11-point margin near the end of the game.  But Stanford ran out of gas and time. 

As a glass-is-half-full person, I still see hope for the last half of the season.  Stanford will be the underdog in most of those games but change and development is in the air.  After the loss to SMU, Coach Paye changed the starting lineup to add Chloe Clardy and Shay Ijiwoye (moving Tess Heal and Jzaniya Harriel to reserves).  Both additions show promise.  Chloe Clardy had a team high of 17 points against NC State, including 5 boards and 3-5 shooting from three-point range.  Ijiwoye’s strength and quickness will disrupt an opponent’s rhythm on both offense and defense.  Her strengths were on show against Florida State, where she had 7 points, 5 boards, 2 assists and a steal (no turnovers).   

The other starters have not faltered.  Elena Boscana has shown Brittany McPhee-like moves inside.  Brooke Demetre and Nunu Agara have been steady and reliable.

There won’t be any easy wins for this young Stanford team.  The starting lineup now includes two sophomores and one freshman.  Four of the five starters did not start last year.  There is real potential for improvement.  The chemistry remains strong with this scrappy, creative, and fun-to-watch team.  A few wins on the road, and maybe two upsets of higher ranked teams should guarantee Stanford an invite to the big dance.

December Downers: Is There a Brittany McPhee Solution?

 

Warren Grimes

Stanford has finished its December schedule with a disappointing 1-3 record.  

Going into their Stanford matchups, the four December opponents collectively had lost just 2 games.  Number 5 ranked LSU and number 11 ranked Ohio State had (and still have) no losses.  The other two had only a single loss each: Cal lost to ranked Michigan State and UT San Antonio had a season opening loss to Texas Tech.   

Stanford’s sole December victory was against UTSA, a game where Stanford showed the ability to hold off a late run and win a close game.  The loss to LSU was mitigated by the grit Stanford showed in holding a lead for over 38 minutes of regulation.  The losses to Cal and Ohio State, both by 20 or more points, were discouraging.   

Stanford finishes its nonconference schedule with an 8-0 record in Maples and a winless 0-4 record when playing elsewhere (the Ohio State game was on a neutral court).  Do the December downers define this team?  Or does the impressive November record-setting start more accurately reflect the team’s character?   Stanford started the season with exceptional three-point shooting and impressive 20- or 30-point margins against lesser opponents.

The Ohio State loss ended the December schedule on a down note   There were times in that contest when Stanford lost confidence, showing an element of panic and chaos in the face of OSU’s full court press.   Stanford scored 6 points in the first quarter and ended the half with just 19 points.  At the end, Stanford had 19 turnovers and only 4 assists.  The team found some composure in the second half, but OSU outscored Stanford in all four periods.  The final margin was 25 points, Stanford’s worst loss of the season. 

So what’s to be done?  Stanford’s 8-4 record is way above the national average but well below Stanford expectations.   This is a young team on an improvement curve.  Stanford lost 3 December games to very good teams.  The team will get better when it learns how to keep control of the ball and score more effectively against an opponent that shuts down the three-ball.  Nunu Agara is part of the answer, but Agara cannot do it alone. 

Thinking about past players who could both shoot the three and create inside, the name Brittany McPhee came to mind.  McPhee was a six-foot guard-forward who graduated in 2018.  She was an aggressive scorer who got it done.  Early in her Stanford career, McPhee showed that she could create all sorts of mischief in the key, with acrobatic moves that included hooks, scoops, loops, reverse lay ups, and spins.  In her junior year, she started making lots of threes, expanding the challenge for any defender.   When it mattered, by whatever means, McPhee got the ball in the basket.

In her junior season, McPhee scored 27 points in an elite eight game against Notre Dame, helping Stanford to overcome a 16-point second half deficit.  The next year. in a game against 6^th ranked Oregon in Eugene, McPhee registered a career high of 33 points, 31 of them in the second half.  Making all but one of her fourth quarter attempts, McPhee lit it up, allowing Stanford to pull away to a  13-point upset. 

This year’s team has guard-forwards who could emulate McPhee’s game.  They include Elena Boscana, Brooke Demetre, Jzaniya Harriel, Tess Heal, Chloe Clardy, and Courtney Ogden.  Each can shoot the three-ball and drive to the basket.  A key difference, however, is their interior scoring efficiency.  McPhee was a master at getting her interior shots to fall. Some of the guard-forwards on this year’s team take the same kind of creative interior shots, but don’t match McPhee’s conversion rate. 

How does Stanford’s current crop of guard-forwards achieve success by McPhee’s standards?  The answer lies in practice, focus, and the confidence to know that they can get the job done.  Starting in the first week of January, each of these players should look to McPhee for inspiration.  If they do, Stanford should rise to a higher level.

The LSU Nemesis: Another One Possession Game

 

Warren Grimes

Stanford has never defeated LSU.  The two teams don’t play often, but the last two games have been one-possession games.  During an elite eight game in the NCAA tournament, LSU defeated Stanford in March of 2006.  With less than 10 seconds on the clock, Candice Wiggins drove to the basket, leaping forward to make a pass to a wing player who proceeded to swish the three-pointer.  That would have made the difference.

But it didn’t count.  There was the small matter of how Candice Wiggins descended.  She crash-landed on LSU's preeminent player, Simone Augustus, who drew the charge that nullified the three-point shot.

The two teams played again 18 years later.  It was, once again, down to the wire.  Once again, LSU came out on top, this time by tying the game with less than 5 seconds on the clock and pulling away from Stanford in overtime.

Both games were deflating for Stanford.  The 2024 version was especially frustrating because Stanford led the game for over 38 minutes.  With 16 seconds on the clock, Stanford held on to a 2-point lead and the opportunity to hold or expand that lead by successfully inbounding the ball.  LSU managed to tip the inbounds pass away.  LSU got possession, and the rest is history.

Frustration aside, there is a lot to like about how unranked Stanford played this game.  The team was on the road against the number 5 team in the nation. By far, this was the toughest match of the season so far.  Had Stanford won, it would have been a major upset.

 Going into the match, Coach Paye expressed the hope that her team would play with confidence.  They did.  Stanford took the lead early in the first quarter, extending that lead to as many as 15 points, and still holding that lead until the last 5 seconds of regulation.  The loss notwithstanding, this was arguably Stanford's best performance of the season.

Stanford outboarded LSU’s strong inside lineup 42 to 37 but lost the turnover battle.  LSU had 14 points off turns to Stanford’s 7.  Throughout the game, Stanford was resilient and focused.  Nunu Agara (29 points and 13 boards) and Brooke Demetre (19 points and 5 boards) both had career days.  Both Elena Boscana and Jzaniya Harriel were also double-digit scorers with 16 and 15 points respectively.  Stanford had a bad second quarter, but unlike against Indiana, fought back in the second half to extend its lead to 5 points at the end of the third quarter. 

Using just 8 players, Stanford played a great game, good enough to win against most any team.  Based on this performance, Stanford could well be one of the top ten teams in the nation.  Stanford may not be ranked next week, but any opponent who saw this game must take Stanford seriously. 

Ask yourself these two questions: (1) How many of the six ACC teams that were ranked above Stanford in the preseason could have played this well against #5 LSU? and (2) how many of the top 25 ranked teams could have matched unranked Stanford's performance in Baton Rouge?

I think you’ll like your own answers.  As far as LSU, watch out the next time you play Stanford.

Stanford: Exciting, Focused, and Improving – Enhancing the Fan Experience

 

Warren Grimes

Tara VanDerveer has said that a fan’s appreciation of the game is enhanced by observing the improvement of a team over the course of a season.   Individual players adapt to their roles and both players and team perform better.

Of course, a player does not always improve with time.  Haley Jones was at her best in her sophomore national championship season.  Among other strengths, she converted crucial three-point shots during the tournament run (Jones made 35% of her three-point attempts that season).   In her senior season, Jones, for whatever reason, converted just 3 of 32 attempted three-pointers (a 9.4% conversion rate).

Regression in performance is not an issue for the current Stanford squad.  Except for Talana Lepolo, who has been recovering from an injury, every one of the returning veterans has shown noticeable improvement.  And the five new players (two transfers and three freshmen) have shown their own early season improvements as they adapt to the Stanford game.  Let’s take a closer look at some of these players.

Brooke Demetre is adopting to her role as a leader, prime scorer and an inside force on defense.   Demetre has been in double digit scoring mode for each of the last three games (14 against Indiana, 15 against Morgan State, and 17 against Cal Poly).  The 15 points against Indiana came despite minutes limited by foul trouble.  Demetre is converting threes at a 52% rate but also converting her fall-back jumper inside the arc.  She has moved up to third place in points per game, just behind Elena Boscana, who is putting on her own senior show with 11.6 points per game.

All three of the sophomores are showing exciting progress.  Nunu Agara is now leading the team in minutes per game (29.7), points per game (16.9), and boards per game (6.3).  She also has a team leading 16 assists.  Both of her sophomore mates (Courtney Ogden and Chole Clardy) are coming off the bench to make a mark.  Ogden’s 16 points against UC Davis were the second highest total for that game; Clardy’s all around game, including drives to the basket, makes her the team’s 5^th highest scorer at 9 points per game.

Turning to newcomers, Tess Heal, who comes to Stanford from Australia via Santa Clara, is catching fire.  She had 14 points in each of the last two games.  Against Cal Poly, she also drew 6 fouls (and was 5 for 5 from the charity stripe).  With a bit more of a push, Heal could become the team’s top scorer in many games.

In the freshman class, all three players are showing improvement, but this week’s nod goes to Shay Ijiwoye.  This 5 foot 6 inch guard is strong, quick, and has a never quit attitude.  Against Cal Poly, in just under 15 minutes, she scored 6, drew 2 fouls and added 2 assists and a steal.  Ijiwoye is averaging just under 10 minutes per game, but that amount is likely to go up significantly.

Another freshman whose learning curve could be essential for a deep tournament dive is Kennedy Umeh.  She had 2.5 uninspired minutes against Cal Poly, but Umeh sparkled against Morgan State.  This six foot four center had a double-double in just under 11 minutes on the floor (11 points and 10 boards).  She also added 2 blocks.  There is still more to be learned – Umeh had 3 turnovers against Morgan State.  With a bit more experience, Umeh could be the strong inside presence that would allow Stanford to play with top 10 teams.

So there is much excitement left in this season.  There is reason for optimism, but also reason to guard against euphoria.  Stanford has had a strong start, but has played an unusual home-game heavy schedule so far.  After Stanford plays San Diego, it will have completed the first eight games, with seven of them at home.    

Stanford has a diverse take-what-the-defense-gives offense.  In just 7 games, four Stanford players have been the top scorer in one or more games (Agara-3; Demetre-2; Boscana-1; Harriel-1).  Stanford also has unprecedented depth at the guard position.  Heal has replaced an ailing Lepolo in the last two games and put up 14 points both times.  Sophomore Clardy has come off the bench in every game and is the team's fifth leading scorer.  Sophomore Ogden had her 16 off-the-bench points against UC Davis.  

Statistics also tell an amazing  story.  The team's collective three-point shooting percentage is 42%.  Turnovers are averaging only 10 per game.  And the team is averaging over 16 assists per game.  All of this will change when Stanford starts playing more road games, some against high ranked opponents.  After San Diego, Stanford's next game is away against national power LSU.

Regardless of the outcome of that game, there is excitement ahead.

An Exciting and Hungry Team: Some Forward-Looking Propositions

Warren Grimes

This young and relatively untested Stanford women’s team is off to a promising start.  Preseason, the team was unranked nationally; in a coaches poll, Stanford was picked for seventh place in the ACC.   Ignoring these predictions, the team decisively won three home games in seven days.  The margin of victory ranged from 64 points (against Le Moyne) to 29 points (against Washington State). 

The team has the motivation and talent to substantially outperform preseason predictions.  Indeed, they are likely to enter the top 25 when the next rankings are announced. 

Below I offer some optimistic propositions about this season’s team.   Are they too bold?  You decide. 

I.                    Kate Paye is positioned to become a world class coach and a worthy successor to Tara VanDerveer.

Tara VanDerveer was honored on Sunday for her historic achievements as the college game’s most winning coach.  VanDerveer has three NCAA titles, demonstrated repeated dominance in the ranks of the Pac 12 conference, and won respect for her outreach and support of women’s hoops nationally.  Her achievements are linked to her ability to communicate, to strategize, to teach, and to build lasting respect and friendship with her players and fellow coaches.  One classic Tara trait was her focus and intensity.

In passing the torch to her long-time deputy, VanDerveer has praised Kate Paye for her bandwidth.  Before Paye earned her first nickel in coaching, she already had on her resume her experience in playing in a national championship game at Stanford, playing in the pros, and receiving three degrees from Stanford, including a J.D. from the law school and an MBA from the business school.  As VanDerveer’s deputy, Paye helped Stanford through several final fours and the 2021 NCAA championship.

More than anything else, Paye’s three academic degrees demonstrate the focus and intensity of this coach.  Sound familiar?  Paye checks all the boxes that VanDerveer checked.  She’s a hard worker, dedicated, a great communicator, motivator, and teacher.  If the season’s first three games are any indication, Paye has put together a team strategy that makes the best use of player talent.   The team has limitations and will likely take some losses, but should easily outperform pre-season predictions.   Paye has motivated this team, which carries with it great team chemistry.

II.                  This year’s squad will be the best three-point shooting team in the team’s history.

Stanford graduated Hannah Jump, the team’s most prolific three-point shooter ever.  She’ll be hard to replace.  Yet, in its first three games, Stanford was on fire, with three consecutive games averaging 15 three-pointers (18 against Le Moyne, 14 against Washington State and 13 against Gonzaga).  A major reason for this was that so many different players were converting efficiently from distance.   They included Nunu Agara, Elena Bosgana, Brooke Demetre, Talana Lepolo, and Jzaniya Harriel, all starters, and three players from off the bench (Chloe Clardy, Courtney Ogden, and Tess Heal).  Of these players, the one with the lowest conversion percentage is Ogden, shooting threes at a mere 40%.  Two more tall players have come off the bench to convert threes: Mary Ashley Stevenson and Harper Pederson

It’s not unusual for shooters to excel in early home games against weaker opponents.  Conversion percentages are certain to go down in road games against tough opponents.  Still, the early games are encouraging.  Stanford no longer has Hannah Jump, but it has an extended list of shooters, including Jzaniya  I’m-not-throwin-away-my-shot Harriel, who was the highest percentage distance shooter on last year’s team (and was 11 for 16 in the first three games).  Add to this list Tess Heal, the Australian super-shooter who entered the Washington State game and converted all 4 of her three-point shots.  Heal appears fearless, the type of player who will launch Caitlin Clark shots from the parking lot.  Perhaps the most surprising addition to the three-point club is Chloe Clardy, an athletic and explosive guard who excels all over the court but shot only 10% (2 for 20) from distance last year.  Clardy shot 70% (7 for 10) in her first three games.  Clardy has changed the mechanics of her shots – with great results so far.

III.                Stanford will be a difficult scout.

This proposition is easy to defend.  Against last year’s team, an opponent could focus on Stanford post players Cameron I-am-throwin-away-your-shot Brink and Kiki Iriafen while always being mindful of where Hannah Jump was.  But this time, Stanford may have four or five players on the floor at any given moment, all of whom can shoot the three-ball with ruthless efficiency.  That means extending the perimeter defense, opening opportunities for interior passing, driving, and pick and roll moves.   

In the first three games, nine players averaged 14.9 or more minutes per game.  Two of the team's top five scorers (Chloe Clardy and Tess Neal) came off the bench.  There is real depth to the perimeter offense, making for a challenging scouting report. 

Stanford has its weaknesses, but its offensive game will be difficult to defend. 

IV.               Nunu Agara will end the season as the top scorer.

This is a more vulnerable proposition.  Agara is an all-American caliber player who can shoot the three ball and power opponents in the interior.  In any given game, she may not be the top scorer, but game in and game out, she is likely to be near the top in point production.  After three games, Agara has the top scoring average of 17.3 points.   Still, in each of the first two games, Elena Bosgana scored more points than Agara.  Bosgana in her senior season is showing leadership and intensity, converting threes and scoring off creative drives. 

In the Le Moyne game, Jzaniya Harriel outscored everyone else (24 points on 6 for 7 shooting from distance).  This illustrates a fundamental about this year’s team – the offense is likely to be more perimeter and guard-oriented.  Another likely top scorer could  be unafraid-to-launch Tess Heal, who was the high scorer at Santa Clara for the past two years.  Against Washington State, Heal scored 14 points in less than 20 minutes on the floor.  If she stays healthy, Heal’s floor time is likely to increase and place her in contention for top scoring honors.

V.                 Stanford’s ability to enter the elite ranks will depend on the evolution of offensive and defensive post play.

Stanford’s perimeter game has never looked better.  There is depth, talent, and opportunity for growth from a player like Shay Ijiwoye, a freshman who has played limited minutes so far but seems likely to make her mark with speed and athleticism. 

A potential weak point for Stanford is its depth and talent in the interior.  Nunu Agara is likely to perform well with her strength and inside-outside game.  No one, however, can replace the offensive and defensive prowess of Cameron Brink and Kiki Iriafen.  Stanford could have difficulty defending teams with powerful inside players.   Rebounding could be an issue against opponents who have powerful post players (Although losing by 31 points, Gonzaga outboarded the Cardinal 36 to 34). 

So making the leap to elite status will require other interior players to step up.  That includes veteran Brooke Demetre, transfer Mary Ashley Stevenson, and freshman Kennedy Umeh.  Stevenson is a savvy player getting major minutes off the bench.  At 6 foot 4, Umeh is tall and strong, but relatively inexperienced.  Inexperience is one quality most likely to change as the season progresses.

Stay tuned.  

Exceeding Expectations: This Season with WBB

 

Warren Grimes

This year’s Stanford WBB team is unranked at the start of the season.   That’s unusual for Stanford. 

The media’s assessment is not without reason.  Stanford lost two All American post players, one the leading shot blocker in Stanford history and the other the team’s leading scorer.  And they lost the team’s third leading scorer as well, an outside shooter with a 37.2% three-point average.

The team also lost Tara VanDerveer, a coach that won three national championships and more collegiate basketball games than any other coach.  And, if that wasn’t enough, the team must adjust to playing in a different league with a lot of cross-country travel and perennial top-25 teams.

There is, however, one advantage to starting the season unranked.   There is more room for the upward climb.  Getting into the top 25 will be a challenge – and a top ten ranking more so.  That said, the coaching staff and the players are excited by the challenge.  As a fan, I share that excitement and look forward to seeing what the team can do. 

The team just won an exhibition game against Cal State LA by a twenty-one point margin (91-70).  The game offered hints of where the team’s strengths may lie.   Three sophomore players showed the anticipated second year leap.  Nunu Agara played the post and had double digits in points (25) and rebounds (13).  Courtney Ogden put up 10 points and 6 boards.  And Chloe Clardy shared point guard responsibilities and scored 11, including 2-5 shooting from three-point land. 

Two seniors offered meaningful contributions.  Reliable and steady Brooke Demetre added 10 points while teammate Elena Bosgana put up 11.  And junior Jzaniya Harriel added another 11 while sharing the point guard position.   That makes 6 players who scored in double digits, all of them team veterans.  Therein lies one of the potential strengths of this team – unselfish basketball that allows different players to step up when opportunity and need arise.

Two other veterans played substantial minutes in the exhibition.  Both are transfer players.  Tess Heal, an Australian guard by way of Santa Clara, played 25 minutes and added 7 points.  Heal was the top scorer on last year’s Santa Clara team.  Mary Ashley Stevenson, a New Yorker who transferred from Perdue, added 4 points while playing 18 minutes.  Of note is that all eight of these players can shoot the three ball, and, in the exhibition, six of them converted a total of 10 three point shots at a 34.5% clip.

This year's team should have depth at the guard position, with a lot of outside shooting and, if the defense moves out, options for pick and roll and driving to the hoop.

So what’s missing?  Perhaps some defensive strategy and intensity to limit opponents’ scoring.   Also, two players likely to be in the Stanford rotation did not play in the exhibition.  Point guard Talana Lepolo was held back.  She was an assist leader and one of the two veterans in last year’s starting lineup.   And freshman Shay Ijiwoye is still recovering from an injury.  Ijiwoye is said to be both quick and fast and could be a disrupting defender who racks up a lot of steals.

Two other freshmen, Kennedy Umeh and Harper Peterson, played less than 2 minutes each but offer the team additional inside depth.  At 6”4”, Umeh is said to be the strongest player on the team.  Peterson at 6’3” can play both in the interior and on the perimeter.

Coach Paye anticipates a 9 or 10 player rotation.  Her coaching acumen will be tested this season, but she has already won my vote for her smooth handling of the media and press conferences.  And the players love her high energy in practices. 

This team is poised and hungry to move out of the world of unranked teams.

Welcome to the ACC: How NC State Eliminated Stanford

 

Warren Grimes

If you’d watched just the first half, you would have been optimistic about the outcome of the sweet sixteen game against third-seeded North Carolina State.  Stanford led by 10 points, notwithstanding Kiki Iriafen’s foul trouble that kept her out of most of that half. 

Things turned in a hurry in the disastrous third quarter.  Iriafen picked up her third foul early in that quarter.  By the end of the quarter, Cameron Bink was on the bench, having picked up her second, third, and fourth fouls in short order.  Meanwhile, NC State began converting inside and out at a 60% clip, also adding 7 for 9 freethrows.  NC State outscored Stanford by 18 points in the quarter.  When Brink fouled out early in the fourth quarter, Stanford could not respond. 

N C State is a fine team, one of the top performing squads in the ACC that includes Virginia Tech, Baylor, Duke, and Notre Dame.  NC State, a deserving final four team, was runner up in the conference and in the conference tournament.  They have balanced scoring and quick and creative guards.  That fact alone suggests a major challenge for Stanford, which lost several games to teams with strong guards (twice to USC and once to Arizona).  In the second-round win against Iowa State, Stanford was sorely challenged by Iowa State’s guard play.

In the post-game press conference, Tara VanDerveer noted that Stanford plays best when both of the team’s outstanding posts can play together, often finding one another with interior passes.  That simply did not happen in the NC State game, where Brink played 23 minutes and Iriafen 22 minutes.  For most of the game, and in the second half when it mattered most, only one of these two was on the floor. 

There was a second reason why Stanford lost this game.  NC State shot 41% from distance while Stanford was a disappointing 20%.  Of Stanford’s three-point conversions, three belonged to Hannah Jump and one each to Brink and Brooke Demetre.  Elena Bosgana, Talana Lepolo, Jzaniya Harriel, Nunu Agara, and Chloe Clardy could have stepped up.  Each, except for Clardy, had season averages well above 30% in three-point shooting.  In the NC State game, they were collectively zero for ten.  That’s not going to win sweet sixteen games. 

The loss was disappointing.  Stanford could have won this game if its dual-post game had clicked or if it had found outside shooting.  That said, this team exceeded preseason expectations.  It won the conference and made the conference tournament final.  It defeated top notch opponents, including Oregon State (three times), UCLA, Utah, and Indiana.  Fans saw some exciting basketball with Brink setting blocking records and the Brink-Iriafen combination executing at the highest level.  The second-round tournament victory against Iowa State was a game to remember.

At the end of the post-game press conference, VanDerveer challenged her returning players (and the incoming freshmen) to show the kind of one-season growth that Kiki Iriafen has demonstrated.  Iriafen scored 41 points against Iowa State.  Then, in the sweet sixteen, she had 26 points, 10 boards and 3 assists in just 22 minutes on the floor.  The NC State performance, on a per minute basis, was even better than what she achieved in the second round game.  Had Iriafen played the same number of minutes as against Iowa State, she was on pace to get more than 18 boards and more than 48 points.  In both of these games, she excelled even when Brink was not on the floor.

That's something to look forward to as Stanford enters the uncertain world of ACC basketball. Just think what Iriafen could achieve next year if she were complemented by players who could execute from the perimeter the way Kiana Williams, Anna Wilson, and Lexi Hull did.  It's up to the returning veterans and the incoming freshmen to provide that missing element.

 

Stanford Juniors Play Key Role in Stanford's Hard-Fought Advance to the Sweet Sixteen

 

On Friday evening, Stanford, by a comfortable margin, beat height-impaired Norfolk State in the First Round of the NCAA tournament.  On Sunday evening, against seventh seeded Iowa State, it was an entirely different matter.  That game was a hard-fought, nerve-wracking, overtime win that tested the mettle of players on both sides.

Bill Fennelly has coached Iowa State for 28 years and has a history of coaching NCAA tournament games against Stanford.  In the 2009 tournament, fourth seeded Iowa State had upset the #1 regional seed and faced off in the elite eight against #2 seed Stanford.  Jayne Appel scored 46 points, her career high and still the highest single-game point total of any Stanford player.  Stanford won.

Fast forward 15 years to Sunday night’s game against the Cyclones.  Jayne Appel was not around, but another amazing post player was.  Kiki Iriafen scored 41 points, her career high, and Stanford won.

Parallels with the 2009 game end at this point.  The earlier game was a comfortable victory that took Stanford to the final four.  The recent encounter was a gut-wrenching second-round game with 18 lead changes and 12 ties, including at the end of regulation.  Stanford’s victory was uncertain until the last few seconds of overtime.

Stanford managed a victory despite being out boarded (42 to 36); Stanford won notwithstanding Iowa State’s amazing 63.2% three-point percentage, including 3 for 3 in overtime.  Stanford prevailed despite foul trouble from Cameron Brink that allowed her to play only 22 minutes, none of them in overtime.  Stanford came out on top despite a phenomenal effort by Iowa State guard Emily Ryan (a career high 36 points on 6 for 9 shooting from distance and 9 boards). 

How did Stanford pull this off?  The Cardinal had the advantage in points off turnovers (21 to 12), assists (17 to 8), blocks (10 to 3), and steals (9 to 5) while shooting 13 for 14 from the foul line.  Despite poor three-point shooting in regulation, Stanford made both three-point attempts in overtime and scored more points in the five-minute overtime (21) than it had in any of the eight-minute quarters.  Hannah Jump was in double figures (15) and Nunu Agara came in to play solid defense.  And two Stanford juniors came up big, making critical plays when it mattered most.

There are three Stanford juniors on the roster, and each contributed substantially to last weekend’s success.  In Friday’s win over Norfolk State, Elena Boscana scored a career-high 18 points on 4 for 6 shooting from three-point land.  She added 4 boards and 2 assists. 

Kiki Iriafen’s contribution was solid against Norfolk State (17 points and 9 boards) and nothing short of mind-boggling against Iowa State (41 points, 16 boards, 4 assists, 3 blocks, and a steal).  She, along with Brink, held Audi Crooks (the Cyclone’s powerful conference freshman of the year) to 10 points on 3 for 21 shooting.

Brooke Demetre, the last of the juniors on the roster, had a modest stat line – 8 points, 3 boards, and 2 steals.  The numbers do not fairly describe her contribution.  Demetre had an inauspicious first half-- she came off the bench but was quickly forced to sit with two fouls.  Her contributions came late.  With Brink benched with five fouls and just 1:18 left in regulation, Stanford had fallen behind the Cyclones.  With nerves of steel, Demetre, who had yet to attempt a three-pointer, uncorked a shot from the right side. When it swished, the bench erupted in celebration.   That shot gave Stanford momenturm to hold on for a tie in regulation.  

There’s more.  The teams continued to exhange the lead in overtime, scoring a collective 36 points in five minutes.  With just 31 seconds left, Iowa State converted a three-pointer to take a one-point lead. Stanford brought the ball up court for what might have been its last offensive opportunity.  With just 18 seconds left, the ball was passed to Demetre who, from well outside the key, launched another three-pointer.  When it swished, Stanford had a two-point lead.  The bench went wild.  

When Iowa State called time out, Cameron Brink ran out to give Demetre a congratulatory hug.  Demetre was still in the moment.  She resolutely walked to the bench without a smile.  Refusing to lose focus, she simply said that there's still game to play.  In the remaining seconds, Stanford played smart and intensive defense; Demetre collected a defensive board in traffic, was fouled, and added two free throws to essentially put the game out of reach.  

The Stanford juniors played their roles to near-perfection in these opening round games.  Basketball is a team sport that requires everyone to understand and execute their role.  Juniors Iriafen, Boscana and Demetre seized their opportunities and made sure that Cameron Brink and Hannah Jump did not end their Stanford careers in Maples with a second round NCAA loss.

The coaches deserve some credit for the results.  Coaching tasks include maintaining team chemistry and deciding who to play when. 

During Friday’s game, one of the TV commentators offered this: the difference between men’s and women’s hoops is that the women win when they play joyfully while the men are joyful when they win.  Along the same line, I’ve heard it said that women want to win to enhance the team and team cohesion whereas men use teamwork and cohesion as a tool to win games. 

A high school basketball coach, who had coached teams for both genders, told me that a common tactic for coaching boys was to come down hard on a player who wasn’t performing.  He went on to explain that this tactic would backfire when coaching girls – the team would rally around the player and fault the coach. 

These generalities may have validity, but I think the genius of a top coach for any gendered team is the ability to coach flexibly based on the team or the personality of individual players.  Coach VanDerveer once told me that she could not coach at Stanford the same way as Pat Summitt coached at Tennessee.  At that point, Summitt had locked her players out of a new locker room, using that as an incentive to get players to work harder in practice.  That tactic, VanDerveer said, would not work at Stanford. 

Elena Boscana’s team-leading 18 points were critical in Friday night’s opening round victory. In the next game, it was Brooke Demetre who coolly sank two critical three-point shots.  In the tournament, well coached opponents will focus on Stanford’s most prolific scorers.  For a deep run, the team needs to show balance and depth on offense, something that VanDerveer allows and encourages her auxiliary players to provide.  Oh, and there's Kiki Iriafen's All American gifts.

The Last and Extraordinary Pac-12 Tournament – and What’s Next

 

Warren Grimes

In a tournament that was physical and unprecedented in numerous ways, USC won the championship over top-seeded Stanford.  That was a disappointment for a Stanford team that plays with unselfish chemistry.  The game did not seem that close, as Stanford lost every quarter except the third (where the teams tied in points). 

The tournament was very seedy – the higher seeded team won each of the first ten games.  That’s never happened before.   By way of contrast, in last year’s tournament, seventh seeded Washington State won the championship by upsetting 3 higher seeded teams.

The tournament broke records such as for double overtime games.  There had been none before, but now there are two in the record books (OSU over Colorado and USC over UCLA).

There were stirring comebacks – OSU came back in the fourth quarter to tie Colorado and win in double overtime.  Stanford came back in the second half to defeat both Cal and OSU.

In the tournament’s first game, Colorado set a record by winning with a 40-point margin against bottom-seeded Oregon.

USC can now claim to be the best team in the conference.  The Trojans are 4-1 against their biggest rivals (Stanford and UCLA).  USC this year has become a powerhouse.  Freshman phenom Juju Watkins may be the best player ever to wear a USC uniform.  She’s backed up by 4 other starting players who have length, athleticism, and experience.   Three of the other starters are 5^th year seniors who transferred from Ivy League schools. 

Stanford managed to hold Watkins to 9 points (2 for 15 shooting) in the title game.  Multiple player defense worked well to hold down Watkins output, but allowed other USC players to shine (McKenzie Forbes, who had transferred from Harvard, had 26 points). The Stanford defense of having multiple players converge on a driving Watkins also contributed to USC’s rebounding dominance (48 to 28).  An interior defender focused on a driving Watkins cannot simultaneously block out for the rebound. 

Shooting well from the outside, Brink and Iriafen contributed 19 and 18 points respectively but were unable to stop USC from grabbing 18 offensive rebounds.

There is no shame in losing to USC.  I can easily see USC getting to the Final Four and possibly taking down the other USC (undefeated University of South Carolina).  Both USCs are talented, well-coached, and appear to have great chemistry.  Lindsay Gottlieb does not quite have the resume of Dawn Staley but watch out. 

As for Stanford, the team has its own special chemistry and can make a strong run to the final four.  They can learn from the defeat the importance of preventing an opponent from dominating the boards.  A question mark is the point guard position, where Talana Lepolo is said not to be 100 percent.  Against USC, Chloe Clardy came in for 15 minutes, scoring 4 points with 2 assists, a steal, and 0 turns. 

It is quite possible that the Conference’s top three teams will get two number one seeds (Stanford and USC) and one number two (UCLA).  Oregon State seems suited for a number four seed, allowing them to play first and second round games on their home court.  I will be cheering first for Stanford, but second for all the other Pac-12 teams in the tournament.  All Pac-12 players and coaches appear to be unified in their dislike of the conference’s demise.  Here’s hoping the Pac 12 teams are ready to show the world that this vanishing conference is going down with flags flying.

Weekend Oregon Tales: Von Oelhaffen vs. Brink; Rueck vs. Vanderveer; Kelly Graves vs. Himself

 

Warren Grimes

Stanford finished off conference play with an on-the-road flourish.  The team won a hard-fought game against then second-place Oregon State on Thursday.  On Saturday, they followed up with a W against Oregon.

The OSU game might best be described as Oregon guard Talia Von Oelhaffen vs. Stanford’s Cameron Brink.  Von Oelhafen had a career high of 27 points – that’s almost 43 percent of her team’s total.  Like her team, Von Oelhaffen refused to give up, continuing to score fourth-quarter points despite being hobbled near the end.  Brink had 25 points (37% of her team’s total) along with a career high 23 rebounds (48.9% of her team’s total).  She played 38 minutes for the Cardinal, fouling out with less than 10 seconds left in the game.

There was drama to the OSU game, as the Beavers closed to within 2 points late in the fourth quarter but could not overcome the last gap.  Kiki Iriafen had 14 points and 7 boards; no one else was in double figures, but seven of the other eight Stanford players who had minutes scored between 2 and 7 points each.  It was a Brink-led team victory.

The coaching stand-off between Tara VanDerveer and Scott Rueck guarantees that both teams were well prepared.  Rueck took over a demoralized OSU program in 2010 and has produced excellent results, including a final four performance in 2016 and three conference championships (2015-2017). Stanford has won 14 straight games against OSU, but Thursday’s win was a nail biter.  Rueck has great respect for Van Derveer (the respect is mutual), indicating that he learns from coaching against well-prepared Stanford teams. 

 Rueck has had some success in recruiting top high school players but has been very successful in developing talent.  Like VanDerveer, Oregon State uses a careful scouting report defense.  This year, Rueck’s team was predicted to finish tenth in the conference.  They have outperformed that prediction, finishing fourth, and rising to a nationally top-10 ranked team until recent losses (with the injury to star Raegan Beers).  Based on that record, Rueck should be a candidate for conference coach of the year.

On Saturday, Stanford pulled away to defeat last place Oregon thanks to another exceptional Brink performance (18 points, 17 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 blocks).  Brink seems to thrive when playing in her home state.  She’s a shoe-in for the conference’s best defensive player; given her overall performance (points, boards, assists, blocks, free-throw shooting), she has a solid case for conference PoY.  

Against Oregon, Stanford put up 76 points with three other players in double figures (Kiki Iriafen -16, Hannah Jump 12, and Brooke Demetre 11).  Stanford achieved this with Talana Lepolo resting up for the tournament.  There was barely a hitch.  Jzaniya Harriel played the point, garnering 6 points with 4 assists and only 1 turnover. 

So what’s with Oregon coach Kelly Graves?  This is a man with a sterling record at Gonzaga before coming to Oregon.  This is a man who coached a Sabrina Ionescu led team to a co-favorite position to win the 2020 NCAA tournament, only to have that opportunity thwarted when Covid 19 forced cancellation of the tournament.

After that year, Graves continued to attract top talent to Oregon, but has now been forced to watch many of those players transfer to other schools (talented guard Te-Hina Paopao is now starring for South Carolina).  As much as Stanford may have been disappointed by transfers at the end of last season, Oregon has suffered much more.  Kelly Graves is too good and too experienced a coach to allow his team to continue as a conference last place team. 

Now it’s on to the tournament.  Stanford has the top seed, probably destined to play California in the quarterfinals.  Stanford would not have to face either of the most formidable opponents (UCLA or USC) until the finals.  With Lauren Betts back in the lineup, UCLA has won its last 5 games, several against top-flight opponents.  A story book end game would be for Stanford to face off against a Betts led UCLA team.  But I should know better than to assume that the higher seeded team will win any given game in this wonderfully chaotic conference.