An Exciting and Hungry Team: Some Forward-Looking Propositions

Warren Grimes

This young and relatively untested Stanford women’s team is off to a promising start.  Preseason, the team was unranked nationally; in a coaches poll, Stanford was picked for seventh place in the ACC.   Ignoring these predictions, the team decisively won three home games in seven days.  The margin of victory ranged from 64 points (against Le Moyne) to 29 points (against Washington State). 

The team has the motivation and talent to substantially outperform preseason predictions.  Indeed, they are likely to enter the top 25 when the next rankings are announced. 

Below I offer some optimistic propositions about this season’s team.   Are they too bold?  You decide. 

I.                    Kate Paye is positioned to become a world class coach and a worthy successor to Tara VanDerveer.

Tara VanDerveer was honored on Sunday for her historic achievements as the college game’s most winning coach.  VanDerveer has three NCAA titles, demonstrated repeated dominance in the ranks of the Pac 12 conference, and won respect for her outreach and support of women’s hoops nationally.  Her achievements are linked to her ability to communicate, to strategize, to teach, and to build lasting respect and friendship with her players and fellow coaches.  One classic Tara trait was her focus and intensity.

In passing the torch to her long-time deputy, VanDerveer has praised Kate Paye for her bandwidth.  Before Paye earned her first nickel in coaching, she already had on her resume her experience in playing in a national championship game at Stanford, playing in the pros, and receiving three degrees from Stanford, including a J.D. from the law school and an MBA from the business school.  As VanDerveer’s deputy, Paye helped Stanford through several final fours and the 2021 NCAA championship.

More than anything else, Paye’s three academic degrees demonstrate the focus and intensity of this coach.  Sound familiar?  Paye checks all the boxes that VanDerveer checked.  She’s a hard worker, dedicated, a great communicator, motivator, and teacher.  If the season’s first three games are any indication, Paye has put together a team strategy that makes the best use of player talent.   The team has limitations and will likely take some losses, but should easily outperform pre-season predictions.   Paye has motivated this team, which carries with it great team chemistry.

II.                  This year’s squad will be the best three-point shooting team in the team’s history.

Stanford graduated Hannah Jump, the team’s most prolific three-point shooter ever.  She’ll be hard to replace.  Yet, in its first three games, Stanford was on fire, with three consecutive games averaging 15 three-pointers (18 against Le Moyne, 14 against Washington State and 13 against Gonzaga).  A major reason for this was that so many different players were converting efficiently from distance.   They included Nunu Agara, Elena Bosgana, Brooke Demetre, Talana Lepolo, and Jzaniya Harriel, all starters, and three players from off the bench (Chloe Clardy, Courtney Ogden, and Tess Heal).  Of these players, the one with the lowest conversion percentage is Ogden, shooting threes at a mere 40%.  Two more tall players have come off the bench to convert threes: Mary Ashley Stevenson and Harper Pederson

It’s not unusual for shooters to excel in early home games against weaker opponents.  Conversion percentages are certain to go down in road games against tough opponents.  Still, the early games are encouraging.  Stanford no longer has Hannah Jump, but it has an extended list of shooters, including Jzaniya  I’m-not-throwin-away-my-shot Harriel, who was the highest percentage distance shooter on last year’s team (and was 11 for 16 in the first three games).  Add to this list Tess Heal, the Australian super-shooter who entered the Washington State game and converted all 4 of her three-point shots.  Heal appears fearless, the type of player who will launch Caitlin Clark shots from the parking lot.  Perhaps the most surprising addition to the three-point club is Chloe Clardy, an athletic and explosive guard who excels all over the court but shot only 10% (2 for 20) from distance last year.  Clardy shot 70% (7 for 10) in her first three games.  Clardy has changed the mechanics of her shots – with great results so far.

III.                Stanford will be a difficult scout.

This proposition is easy to defend.  Against last year’s team, an opponent could focus on Stanford post players Cameron I-am-throwin-away-your-shot Brink and Kiki Iriafen while always being mindful of where Hannah Jump was.  But this time, Stanford may have four or five players on the floor at any given moment, all of whom can shoot the three-ball with ruthless efficiency.  That means extending the perimeter defense, opening opportunities for interior passing, driving, and pick and roll moves.   

In the first three games, nine players averaged 14.9 or more minutes per game.  Two of the team's top five scorers (Chloe Clardy and Tess Neal) came off the bench.  There is real depth to the perimeter offense, making for a challenging scouting report. 

Stanford has its weaknesses, but its offensive game will be difficult to defend. 

IV.               Nunu Agara will end the season as the top scorer.

This is a more vulnerable proposition.  Agara is an all-American caliber player who can shoot the three ball and power opponents in the interior.  In any given game, she may not be the top scorer, but game in and game out, she is likely to be near the top in point production.  After three games, Agara has the top scoring average of 17.3 points.   Still, in each of the first two games, Elena Bosgana scored more points than Agara.  Bosgana in her senior season is showing leadership and intensity, converting threes and scoring off creative drives. 

In the Le Moyne game, Jzaniya Harriel outscored everyone else (24 points on 6 for 7 shooting from distance).  This illustrates a fundamental about this year’s team – the offense is likely to be more perimeter and guard-oriented.  Another likely top scorer could  be unafraid-to-launch Tess Heal, who was the high scorer at Santa Clara for the past two years.  Against Washington State, Heal scored 14 points in less than 20 minutes on the floor.  If she stays healthy, Heal’s floor time is likely to increase and place her in contention for top scoring honors.

V.                 Stanford’s ability to enter the elite ranks will depend on the evolution of offensive and defensive post play.

Stanford’s perimeter game has never looked better.  There is depth, talent, and opportunity for growth from a player like Shay Ijiwoye, a freshman who has played limited minutes so far but seems likely to make her mark with speed and athleticism. 

A potential weak point for Stanford is its depth and talent in the interior.  Nunu Agara is likely to perform well with her strength and inside-outside game.  No one, however, can replace the offensive and defensive prowess of Cameron Brink and Kiki Iriafen.  Stanford could have difficulty defending teams with powerful inside players.   Rebounding could be an issue against opponents who have powerful post players (Although losing by 31 points, Gonzaga outboarded the Cardinal 36 to 34). 

So making the leap to elite status will require other interior players to step up.  That includes veteran Brooke Demetre, transfer Mary Ashley Stevenson, and freshman Kennedy Umeh.  Stevenson is a savvy player getting major minutes off the bench.  At 6 foot 4, Umeh is tall and strong, but relatively inexperienced.  Inexperience is one quality most likely to change as the season progresses.

Stay tuned.  

Exceeding Expectations: This Season with WBB

 

Warren Grimes

This year’s Stanford WBB team is unranked at the start of the season.   That’s unusual for Stanford. 

The media’s assessment is not without reason.  Stanford lost two All American post players, one the leading shot blocker in Stanford history and the other the team’s leading scorer.  And they lost the team’s third leading scorer as well, an outside shooter with a 37.2% three-point average.

The team also lost Tara VanDerveer, a coach that won three national championships and more collegiate basketball games than any other coach.  And, if that wasn’t enough, the team must adjust to playing in a different league with a lot of cross-country travel and perennial top-25 teams.

There is, however, one advantage to starting the season unranked.   There is more room for the upward climb.  Getting into the top 25 will be a challenge – and a top ten ranking more so.  That said, the coaching staff and the players are excited by the challenge.  As a fan, I share that excitement and look forward to seeing what the team can do. 

The team just won an exhibition game against Cal State LA by a twenty-one point margin (91-70).  The game offered hints of where the team’s strengths may lie.   Three sophomore players showed the anticipated second year leap.  Nunu Agara played the post and had double digits in points (25) and rebounds (13).  Courtney Ogden put up 10 points and 6 boards.  And Chloe Clardy shared point guard responsibilities and scored 11, including 2-5 shooting from three-point land. 

Two seniors offered meaningful contributions.  Reliable and steady Brooke Demetre added 10 points while teammate Elena Bosgana put up 11.  And junior Jzaniya Harriel added another 11 while sharing the point guard position.   That makes 6 players who scored in double digits, all of them team veterans.  Therein lies one of the potential strengths of this team – unselfish basketball that allows different players to step up when opportunity and need arise.

Two other veterans played substantial minutes in the exhibition.  Both are transfer players.  Tess Heal, an Australian guard by way of Santa Clara, played 25 minutes and added 7 points.  Heal was the top scorer on last year’s Santa Clara team.  Mary Ashley Stevenson, a New Yorker who transferred from Perdue, added 4 points while playing 18 minutes.  Of note is that all eight of these players can shoot the three ball, and, in the exhibition, six of them converted a total of 10 three point shots at a 34.5% clip.

This year's team should have depth at the guard position, with a lot of outside shooting and, if the defense moves out, options for pick and roll and driving to the hoop.

So what’s missing?  Perhaps some defensive strategy and intensity to limit opponents’ scoring.   Also, two players likely to be in the Stanford rotation did not play in the exhibition.  Point guard Talana Lepolo was held back.  She was an assist leader and one of the two veterans in last year’s starting lineup.   And freshman Shay Ijiwoye is still recovering from an injury.  Ijiwoye is said to be both quick and fast and could be a disrupting defender who racks up a lot of steals.

Two other freshmen, Kennedy Umeh and Harper Peterson, played less than 2 minutes each but offer the team additional inside depth.  At 6”4”, Umeh is said to be the strongest player on the team.  Peterson at 6’3” can play both in the interior and on the perimeter.

Coach Paye anticipates a 9 or 10 player rotation.  Her coaching acumen will be tested this season, but she has already won my vote for her smooth handling of the media and press conferences.  And the players love her high energy in practices. 

This team is poised and hungry to move out of the world of unranked teams.

Welcome to the ACC: How NC State Eliminated Stanford

 

Warren Grimes

If you’d watched just the first half, you would have been optimistic about the outcome of the sweet sixteen game against third-seeded North Carolina State.  Stanford led by 10 points, notwithstanding Kiki Iriafen’s foul trouble that kept her out of most of that half. 

Things turned in a hurry in the disastrous third quarter.  Iriafen picked up her third foul early in that quarter.  By the end of the quarter, Cameron Bink was on the bench, having picked up her second, third, and fourth fouls in short order.  Meanwhile, NC State began converting inside and out at a 60% clip, also adding 7 for 9 freethrows.  NC State outscored Stanford by 18 points in the quarter.  When Brink fouled out early in the fourth quarter, Stanford could not respond. 

N C State is a fine team, one of the top performing squads in the ACC that includes Virginia Tech, Baylor, Duke, and Notre Dame.  NC State, a deserving final four team, was runner up in the conference and in the conference tournament.  They have balanced scoring and quick and creative guards.  That fact alone suggests a major challenge for Stanford, which lost several games to teams with strong guards (twice to USC and once to Arizona).  In the second-round win against Iowa State, Stanford was sorely challenged by Iowa State’s guard play.

In the post-game press conference, Tara VanDerveer noted that Stanford plays best when both of the team’s outstanding posts can play together, often finding one another with interior passes.  That simply did not happen in the NC State game, where Brink played 23 minutes and Iriafen 22 minutes.  For most of the game, and in the second half when it mattered most, only one of these two was on the floor. 

There was a second reason why Stanford lost this game.  NC State shot 41% from distance while Stanford was a disappointing 20%.  Of Stanford’s three-point conversions, three belonged to Hannah Jump and one each to Brink and Brooke Demetre.  Elena Bosgana, Talana Lepolo, Jzaniya Harriel, Nunu Agara, and Chloe Clardy could have stepped up.  Each, except for Clardy, had season averages well above 30% in three-point shooting.  In the NC State game, they were collectively zero for ten.  That’s not going to win sweet sixteen games. 

The loss was disappointing.  Stanford could have won this game if its dual-post game had clicked or if it had found outside shooting.  That said, this team exceeded preseason expectations.  It won the conference and made the conference tournament final.  It defeated top notch opponents, including Oregon State (three times), UCLA, Utah, and Indiana.  Fans saw some exciting basketball with Brink setting blocking records and the Brink-Iriafen combination executing at the highest level.  The second-round tournament victory against Iowa State was a game to remember.

At the end of the post-game press conference, VanDerveer challenged her returning players (and the incoming freshmen) to show the kind of one-season growth that Kiki Iriafen has demonstrated.  Iriafen scored 41 points against Iowa State.  Then, in the sweet sixteen, she had 26 points, 10 boards and 3 assists in just 22 minutes on the floor.  The NC State performance, on a per minute basis, was even better than what she achieved in the second round game.  Had Iriafen played the same number of minutes as against Iowa State, she was on pace to get more than 18 boards and more than 48 points.  In both of these games, she excelled even when Brink was not on the floor.

That's something to look forward to as Stanford enters the uncertain world of ACC basketball. Just think what Iriafen could achieve next year if she were complemented by players who could execute from the perimeter the way Kiana Williams, Anna Wilson, and Lexi Hull did.  It's up to the returning veterans and the incoming freshmen to provide that missing element.

 

Stanford Juniors Play Key Role in Stanford's Hard-Fought Advance to the Sweet Sixteen

 

On Friday evening, Stanford, by a comfortable margin, beat height-impaired Norfolk State in the First Round of the NCAA tournament.  On Sunday evening, against seventh seeded Iowa State, it was an entirely different matter.  That game was a hard-fought, nerve-wracking, overtime win that tested the mettle of players on both sides.

Bill Fennelly has coached Iowa State for 28 years and has a history of coaching NCAA tournament games against Stanford.  In the 2009 tournament, fourth seeded Iowa State had upset the #1 regional seed and faced off in the elite eight against #2 seed Stanford.  Jayne Appel scored 46 points, her career high and still the highest single-game point total of any Stanford player.  Stanford won.

Fast forward 15 years to Sunday night’s game against the Cyclones.  Jayne Appel was not around, but another amazing post player was.  Kiki Iriafen scored 41 points, her career high, and Stanford won.

Parallels with the 2009 game end at this point.  The earlier game was a comfortable victory that took Stanford to the final four.  The recent encounter was a gut-wrenching second-round game with 18 lead changes and 12 ties, including at the end of regulation.  Stanford’s victory was uncertain until the last few seconds of overtime.

Stanford managed a victory despite being out boarded (42 to 36); Stanford won notwithstanding Iowa State’s amazing 63.2% three-point percentage, including 3 for 3 in overtime.  Stanford prevailed despite foul trouble from Cameron Brink that allowed her to play only 22 minutes, none of them in overtime.  Stanford came out on top despite a phenomenal effort by Iowa State guard Emily Ryan (a career high 36 points on 6 for 9 shooting from distance and 9 boards). 

How did Stanford pull this off?  The Cardinal had the advantage in points off turnovers (21 to 12), assists (17 to 8), blocks (10 to 3), and steals (9 to 5) while shooting 13 for 14 from the foul line.  Despite poor three-point shooting in regulation, Stanford made both three-point attempts in overtime and scored more points in the five-minute overtime (21) than it had in any of the eight-minute quarters.  Hannah Jump was in double figures (15) and Nunu Agara came in to play solid defense.  And two Stanford juniors came up big, making critical plays when it mattered most.

There are three Stanford juniors on the roster, and each contributed substantially to last weekend’s success.  In Friday’s win over Norfolk State, Elena Boscana scored a career-high 18 points on 4 for 6 shooting from three-point land.  She added 4 boards and 2 assists. 

Kiki Iriafen’s contribution was solid against Norfolk State (17 points and 9 boards) and nothing short of mind-boggling against Iowa State (41 points, 16 boards, 4 assists, 3 blocks, and a steal).  She, along with Brink, held Audi Crooks (the Cyclone’s powerful conference freshman of the year) to 10 points on 3 for 21 shooting.

Brooke Demetre, the last of the juniors on the roster, had a modest stat line – 8 points, 3 boards, and 2 steals.  The numbers do not fairly describe her contribution.  Demetre had an inauspicious first half-- she came off the bench but was quickly forced to sit with two fouls.  Her contributions came late.  With Brink benched with five fouls and just 1:18 left in regulation, Stanford had fallen behind the Cyclones.  With nerves of steel, Demetre, who had yet to attempt a three-pointer, uncorked a shot from the right side. When it swished, the bench erupted in celebration.   That shot gave Stanford momenturm to hold on for a tie in regulation.  

There’s more.  The teams continued to exhange the lead in overtime, scoring a collective 36 points in five minutes.  With just 31 seconds left, Iowa State converted a three-pointer to take a one-point lead. Stanford brought the ball up court for what might have been its last offensive opportunity.  With just 18 seconds left, the ball was passed to Demetre who, from well outside the key, launched another three-pointer.  When it swished, Stanford had a two-point lead.  The bench went wild.  

When Iowa State called time out, Cameron Brink ran out to give Demetre a congratulatory hug.  Demetre was still in the moment.  She resolutely walked to the bench without a smile.  Refusing to lose focus, she simply said that there's still game to play.  In the remaining seconds, Stanford played smart and intensive defense; Demetre collected a defensive board in traffic, was fouled, and added two free throws to essentially put the game out of reach.  

The Stanford juniors played their roles to near-perfection in these opening round games.  Basketball is a team sport that requires everyone to understand and execute their role.  Juniors Iriafen, Boscana and Demetre seized their opportunities and made sure that Cameron Brink and Hannah Jump did not end their Stanford careers in Maples with a second round NCAA loss.

The coaches deserve some credit for the results.  Coaching tasks include maintaining team chemistry and deciding who to play when. 

During Friday’s game, one of the TV commentators offered this: the difference between men’s and women’s hoops is that the women win when they play joyfully while the men are joyful when they win.  Along the same line, I’ve heard it said that women want to win to enhance the team and team cohesion whereas men use teamwork and cohesion as a tool to win games. 

A high school basketball coach, who had coached teams for both genders, told me that a common tactic for coaching boys was to come down hard on a player who wasn’t performing.  He went on to explain that this tactic would backfire when coaching girls – the team would rally around the player and fault the coach. 

These generalities may have validity, but I think the genius of a top coach for any gendered team is the ability to coach flexibly based on the team or the personality of individual players.  Coach VanDerveer once told me that she could not coach at Stanford the same way as Pat Summitt coached at Tennessee.  At that point, Summitt had locked her players out of a new locker room, using that as an incentive to get players to work harder in practice.  That tactic, VanDerveer said, would not work at Stanford. 

Elena Boscana’s team-leading 18 points were critical in Friday night’s opening round victory. In the next game, it was Brooke Demetre who coolly sank two critical three-point shots.  In the tournament, well coached opponents will focus on Stanford’s most prolific scorers.  For a deep run, the team needs to show balance and depth on offense, something that VanDerveer allows and encourages her auxiliary players to provide.  Oh, and there's Kiki Iriafen's All American gifts.

The Last and Extraordinary Pac-12 Tournament – and What’s Next

 

Warren Grimes

In a tournament that was physical and unprecedented in numerous ways, USC won the championship over top-seeded Stanford.  That was a disappointment for a Stanford team that plays with unselfish chemistry.  The game did not seem that close, as Stanford lost every quarter except the third (where the teams tied in points). 

The tournament was very seedy – the higher seeded team won each of the first ten games.  That’s never happened before.   By way of contrast, in last year’s tournament, seventh seeded Washington State won the championship by upsetting 3 higher seeded teams.

The tournament broke records such as for double overtime games.  There had been none before, but now there are two in the record books (OSU over Colorado and USC over UCLA).

There were stirring comebacks – OSU came back in the fourth quarter to tie Colorado and win in double overtime.  Stanford came back in the second half to defeat both Cal and OSU.

In the tournament’s first game, Colorado set a record by winning with a 40-point margin against bottom-seeded Oregon.

USC can now claim to be the best team in the conference.  The Trojans are 4-1 against their biggest rivals (Stanford and UCLA).  USC this year has become a powerhouse.  Freshman phenom Juju Watkins may be the best player ever to wear a USC uniform.  She’s backed up by 4 other starting players who have length, athleticism, and experience.   Three of the other starters are 5^th year seniors who transferred from Ivy League schools. 

Stanford managed to hold Watkins to 9 points (2 for 15 shooting) in the title game.  Multiple player defense worked well to hold down Watkins output, but allowed other USC players to shine (McKenzie Forbes, who had transferred from Harvard, had 26 points). The Stanford defense of having multiple players converge on a driving Watkins also contributed to USC’s rebounding dominance (48 to 28).  An interior defender focused on a driving Watkins cannot simultaneously block out for the rebound. 

Shooting well from the outside, Brink and Iriafen contributed 19 and 18 points respectively but were unable to stop USC from grabbing 18 offensive rebounds.

There is no shame in losing to USC.  I can easily see USC getting to the Final Four and possibly taking down the other USC (undefeated University of South Carolina).  Both USCs are talented, well-coached, and appear to have great chemistry.  Lindsay Gottlieb does not quite have the resume of Dawn Staley but watch out. 

As for Stanford, the team has its own special chemistry and can make a strong run to the final four.  They can learn from the defeat the importance of preventing an opponent from dominating the boards.  A question mark is the point guard position, where Talana Lepolo is said not to be 100 percent.  Against USC, Chloe Clardy came in for 15 minutes, scoring 4 points with 2 assists, a steal, and 0 turns. 

It is quite possible that the Conference’s top three teams will get two number one seeds (Stanford and USC) and one number two (UCLA).  Oregon State seems suited for a number four seed, allowing them to play first and second round games on their home court.  I will be cheering first for Stanford, but second for all the other Pac-12 teams in the tournament.  All Pac-12 players and coaches appear to be unified in their dislike of the conference’s demise.  Here’s hoping the Pac 12 teams are ready to show the world that this vanishing conference is going down with flags flying.

Weekend Oregon Tales: Von Oelhaffen vs. Brink; Rueck vs. Vanderveer; Kelly Graves vs. Himself

 

Warren Grimes

Stanford finished off conference play with an on-the-road flourish.  The team won a hard-fought game against then second-place Oregon State on Thursday.  On Saturday, they followed up with a W against Oregon.

The OSU game might best be described as Oregon guard Talia Von Oelhaffen vs. Stanford’s Cameron Brink.  Von Oelhafen had a career high of 27 points – that’s almost 43 percent of her team’s total.  Like her team, Von Oelhaffen refused to give up, continuing to score fourth-quarter points despite being hobbled near the end.  Brink had 25 points (37% of her team’s total) along with a career high 23 rebounds (48.9% of her team’s total).  She played 38 minutes for the Cardinal, fouling out with less than 10 seconds left in the game.

There was drama to the OSU game, as the Beavers closed to within 2 points late in the fourth quarter but could not overcome the last gap.  Kiki Iriafen had 14 points and 7 boards; no one else was in double figures, but seven of the other eight Stanford players who had minutes scored between 2 and 7 points each.  It was a Brink-led team victory.

The coaching stand-off between Tara VanDerveer and Scott Rueck guarantees that both teams were well prepared.  Rueck took over a demoralized OSU program in 2010 and has produced excellent results, including a final four performance in 2016 and three conference championships (2015-2017). Stanford has won 14 straight games against OSU, but Thursday’s win was a nail biter.  Rueck has great respect for Van Derveer (the respect is mutual), indicating that he learns from coaching against well-prepared Stanford teams. 

 Rueck has had some success in recruiting top high school players but has been very successful in developing talent.  Like VanDerveer, Oregon State uses a careful scouting report defense.  This year, Rueck’s team was predicted to finish tenth in the conference.  They have outperformed that prediction, finishing fourth, and rising to a nationally top-10 ranked team until recent losses (with the injury to star Raegan Beers).  Based on that record, Rueck should be a candidate for conference coach of the year.

On Saturday, Stanford pulled away to defeat last place Oregon thanks to another exceptional Brink performance (18 points, 17 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 blocks).  Brink seems to thrive when playing in her home state.  She’s a shoe-in for the conference’s best defensive player; given her overall performance (points, boards, assists, blocks, free-throw shooting), she has a solid case for conference PoY.  

Against Oregon, Stanford put up 76 points with three other players in double figures (Kiki Iriafen -16, Hannah Jump 12, and Brooke Demetre 11).  Stanford achieved this with Talana Lepolo resting up for the tournament.  There was barely a hitch.  Jzaniya Harriel played the point, garnering 6 points with 4 assists and only 1 turnover. 

So what’s with Oregon coach Kelly Graves?  This is a man with a sterling record at Gonzaga before coming to Oregon.  This is a man who coached a Sabrina Ionescu led team to a co-favorite position to win the 2020 NCAA tournament, only to have that opportunity thwarted when Covid 19 forced cancellation of the tournament.

After that year, Graves continued to attract top talent to Oregon, but has now been forced to watch many of those players transfer to other schools (talented guard Te-Hina Paopao is now starring for South Carolina).  As much as Stanford may have been disappointed by transfers at the end of last season, Oregon has suffered much more.  Kelly Graves is too good and too experienced a coach to allow his team to continue as a conference last place team. 

Now it’s on to the tournament.  Stanford has the top seed, probably destined to play California in the quarterfinals.  Stanford would not have to face either of the most formidable opponents (UCLA or USC) until the finals.  With Lauren Betts back in the lineup, UCLA has won its last 5 games, several against top-flight opponents.  A story book end game would be for Stanford to face off against a Betts led UCLA team.  But I should know better than to assume that the higher seeded team will win any given game in this wonderfully chaotic conference.

Weekend Update: After Demoralizing Loss, Conferce Chaos to the Rescue

 

Warren Grimes

For those who slept through the weekend, there were upsets of each of the top three teams in Pac-12 play.  First place Stanford lost on Friday to seventh place Arizona, leaving the Cardinal with only a one game lead over the tied second place teams.  On Sunday, conference chaos produced upset losses for each of the second-place teams.  Playing on the road in L.A., sixth place Utah upset USC.  Playing at home in Seattle, tenth place Washington upset Oregon State.

The upshot was that Stanford players were donning conference champion t-shirts at Maples.  By defeating Arizona State, and with a little help from short term friends Utah and Washington, Stanford had guaranteed itself at least a share of the championship.

The story has more drama than a brief synopsis can impart.  Going back to Maples last Friday evening, one team achieved a come-from-behind Cinderella result while the other suffered a gut-wrenching loss.  Last Friday, it was Stanford that suffered the demoralizing and frustrating defeat. 

Stanford led Arizona from the get-go and did not give up that lead until there was only 1:56 left in the fourth quarter.  An Iriafen lay up tied the game again, but with just 31 seconds on the clock, Arizona guard Jada Williams banked in a three-pointer.  Stanford did not score again. 

The fourth quarter was a disaster for Stanford.  Beginning with an 8-point advantage, Stanford gave up 31 points to Arizona while scoring only 16 of their own.  The Arizona run was punctuated by lots of turnovers and some exceptional shooting from Arizona guard Williams.  All of Arizona’s three-point conversions (4 of them) occurred in the fourth quarter. 

Emblematic of Stanford’s fourth quarter trials was an offensive foul on Talana Lepolo.  Arizona had tied the game on a lay-up following a Stanford turnover.  Talana Lepolo rushed down the court to accept the inbounds pass, in the process obliterating an Arizona defender whom she had not seen.  Lepolo was called for an offensive foul and Stanford had turned the ball over before even attempting an inbound pass.

The Arizona win was an upset, but less so because Stanford was Brinkless.  Cameron Brink was recovering from a tough case of the flu and did not play on Friday.  Is that a big deal?  Brink has a unique and potent set of tools.  On defense, she blocks, alters shots, and steals.  On offense she scores, boards, and shoots free throws with ruthless efficiency.  Her unavailability is a difference maker. 

Stanford, however, still played to win.  Kiki Iriafen stepped up with more than usual stats:  21 points, 15 boards, 4 assists, and 3 blocks.  Booke Demetre replaced Brink in the starting line up and generated 15 points, 4 boards, and 2 blocks of her own.  Hannah Jump contributed 13 points on 3 for 5 shooting from distance.  And for the second time in conference play against Arizona, Chloe Clardy clocked major minutes as a ball handler.  In 20 minutes, Clardy contributed 7 points and 2 assists.   Clardy also was credited with 2 steals that were critical in a late third quarter Stanford run.

Going into Sunday’s game against ASU, Stanford knew that its lead against second-place USC and OSU was down to one game.  The big question was: could Brink play?  

Play she did.  Although she later conceded feeling only 60%,  in just 23 minutes on the court, her stats were the usual exceptional: 14 points, 9 boards, 7 assists, and 5 blocks.  Iriafen, perhaps benefiting from Brink’s presence, had an All American performance with 22 points, 20 boards, and 4 assists.  There is, however, more drama to this game.

Talana Lepolo, Stanford’s stalwart point guard, was held out of the game pending further medical input on an injury.  Her point guard role was filled by Jzaniya Harriel, who started her first game at Stanford.  Harriel contributed just one assist but led the offense with only a single turnover and added 12 points on 4-8 shooting from distance.  In her final conference home game, Hannah Jump added 11 points and 4 assists.  Nunu Agara added her own 11 points on some impressive offensive boards and putbacks. 

Stanford is a team with very good chemistry.  When Agara comes in off the bench for just 13 minutes and contributes 4 offensive boards and 11 points (on 4 for 5 shooting), that’s a sign that she has learned how to contribute to team success.  Players who learn to play their role, and play it well, add to team strength and generate more good chemistry.  

Tara VanDerver has been a leader of the soon to disappear Pac-12 conference.  She frequently reminds the world that the conference’s competitive schedule is a major plus in preparing Stanford and its rivals for the big dance.  The results of last weekend demonstrate the conference’s high level of play from top to bottom.  Tenth place Washington brought down second place Oregon State.  Eleventh place ASU lost on the road to first place Stanford, but the game was competitive from start to finish.  ASU is unlikely to be chosen for the big dance.  It is still a very good team that has a non-conference record of 8 wins and 4 losses.   Given a chance, ASU could certainly defeat some of the 64 teams that will play in the NCAA tournament.

As a fan of Stanford and the game, I am excited about Stanford’s chances in the tournaments ahead.  I am also disgusted that the economics of college athletics have produced the demise of a wonderful conference, not just for women’s hoops, but for most of the other sports in which Stanford competes.

Was this Year’s Pac-12 Schedule Fair? Why Unfairness Issues Will Be Exacerbated by Conference Realignments

 

Warren Grimes

The Pac-12, in its last year, is a peculiarly strong conference: one in which virtually all its 12 teams had a winning record against non-conference opponents; one in which Washington, tied for tenth place in the conference, was able to take the first-place team (Stanford) to overtime.  It is also, however, a conference in which the top six teams, each of whom at one point in the season has been rated among the top 10 or 11 teams nationally, have created a substantial gap with the bottom six teams.   

Pac-12 scheduling provides for 18 conference games.  That’s not enough for a home and away game against every opponent (that would require 22 games).  Each team is matched with a rival (Stanford with Cal, UCLA with USC, etc.).  On a rotating basis, each pair of rivals is scheduled to play 4 opponents only once.   This season, for example, Stanford and Cal played the Mountain schools only once (on the road) while playing the LA schools only once (at Maples).  That can be an advantage or a disadvantage depending on the strength of opponents. 

This season, the conference results may be skewed more than usual because of the strong demarcation between the top six and the bottom six teams.  In the conference standings, UCLA and Utah are tied for fifth with 9 wins and 5 losses.  Both have been among the top 5 in the country and have largely stayed among the nation’s top 20 teams.  UCLA, once ranked #2 in the country, has victories over U Conn and Ohio State.  Just below them is the seventh ranked team, Arizona, which has 8 losses and 6 wins in conference.  Arizona is a good team with an overall 14-12 record but not deserving of the national recognition that UCLA or Utah have.  The top six teams, collectively, have won 64 conference games with just 24 losses.  Almost all those losses have come in contests against one another.  For example, Colorado, Oregon State and UCLA had losses this last weekend, in each case to another top six team. 

The conference champion is determined by total won/loss record in the conference, with no adjustments for the strength of the conference opponent.  Any team forced to play one of the top six teams more than the bottom six has a disadvantage.  By this measure, among the six contenders, Stanford has the easiest schedule and Oregon State the toughest.

Stanford – Plays top six conference teams a total of six times (Oregon State twice and the LA and Mountain schools only once each).

Oregon State – Plays top six teams a total of ten times (each of the five other contenders twice).

Mountain and LA Schools – Play top six teams a total of nine times (play each other and Oregon State twice but Stanford only once). 

By this measure, Stanford has an advantage and OSU (and the other four contenders) a disadvantage.  That, of course, does not mean Stanford, should it win the championship, is not the best team.  It just means that the road to the championship was somewhat easier than it was for Oregon State and the other four top ranked teams. 

Conference results matter for seeding in the conference tournament.  In this year’s Pac-12 tournament, being either a one or a two seed is a substantial advantage – the top two seeds will not meet any of the other top six teams until the semifinals at the earliest.  In contrast, the three and four seeds may face another of the top six teams in the quarterfinals. 

Next year, scheduling unfairness will be exacerbated by conference realignments that increase the size of conferences – it becomes more and more difficult to schedule home and away contests against everyone in the conference.  One way of adjusting for this is to weigh the value of a win more heavily when the opponent has a strong national standing.  Adjusting the value of a win can reduce unfairness, but the messiness of this solution is another reason that creation of huge conferences is not in the interests of women’s basketball and most other college sports.

So, who is the conference’s best team?  Stanford has only 2 losses, putting it two games ahead of Oregon State, Colorado, and USC in the loss column.  To be fair, would Stanford have only 2 losses had it faced, as Oregon State has, the mountain and Southern California schools in four additional games?  That’s a question with no certain answer.  Whatever the scheduling inequities, Stanford would prove something if it can win its last four games.  One of those would be a road game against an impressive Oregon State team, currently tied for second place, that has faced the roughest conference schedule of any of the six contending teams. 

Against California, Stanford impressively held California to its lowest point total of the season (49 points).  No other conference team has bested Cal by a 35-point margin.  There were 5 players in double figures, led by Kiki Iriafen with 23 points.  Cameron Brink had 14, as did Hannah Jump.  Elena Boscana and Brooke Demetre had 11 points each.  The team converted three-point shots at a 45.5% clip with 36 points in the paint.  One of the most impressive facets of the game was the solid physical defense, helped by player-to-player communication and the interior strength of Cameron Brink and Iriafen.  Perimeter defenders can face three-point shooters more aggressively when they know there is backup near the basket.  That physical and in your face perimeter defense threw Cal off its otherwise proficient offense.   

If Stanford can retain its focus and play the way it did against California, it can capture the conference championship and credibly claim to be the conference’s best team.

The Stanford Bench: Who’s on the Court in Crunch Time?

 

Warren Grimes

With substantial depth and diversity in the Stanford roster, it’s fascinating to see who Coach VanDerveer calls upon during critical moments.  Crunch time is often in the fourth quarter when the team is fighting to overcome a deficit or to hold on to a lead. The players who play these minutes vary over time as young players settle in, injuries or foul trouble limits availability, and matchups change.  On any given day, a hot hand can earn a player a role in critical minutes.

Four Stanford starters are, assuming they are available, likely to be on the floor in critical moments: Cameron Brink, Kiki Iriafen, Hanah Jump, and Talana Lepolo.  Foul trouble can limit their time.  So who among the bench players is most likely to be in the game when it matters most.

Brooke Demetri is often the first off the bench, and averages 20.5 minutes per game.  She’s an obvious choice in crunch time because of her steady defense, her 2 to 1 assist to turnover ratio and her ability to take and make critical three-point shots.  In the critical overtime win against Washington last Friday, Dimitri shot only once.  She converted a critical three point shot in the fourth quarter that allowed Stanford to hold on to the tie in regulation.   

Last weekend, however, it was not Dimitri who got the most minutes off the bench.  Freshman Courtney Ogden averaged 21 minutes of play against the Washington schools.  She scored 11 critical points against the Huskies, playing the entire overtime.  With 6 seconds on the clock and holding a slim 2-point lead, Stanford was having difficulties inbounding the ball.  Ogden broke free of her defender to take an inbound pass and convert a contested layup.  With just 5 seconds left, the Huskies could not convert, ensuring the Stanford win. 

Against Washington State two days later, Ogden once again played the most minutes off the bench (19 minutes), making both of her shot attempts (including a three-pointer) and pulling down three boards.  One reason that Ogden is winning this floor time is her solid defense and steadiness under pressure (a 1.3 assist to turnover ratio).  Ogden has learned to let the game come to her and is developing into a valuable crunch-time player. 

Other players have gained the trust of the coaches and earn minutes during critical moments.  After Demetri, Jzaniya Harriel is the highest scoring bench player in conference play.  She is averaging 4.2 points per game while playing defense and shooting 55% from the three-point line.  Nunu Agara is close behind, averaging 4.1 points in conference play.  Agara is most often a replacement for interior standouts Brink and Iriafen.  In the last six games, those two players have largely avoided foul trouble, limiting Agara’s time on the floor.  In conference play, Agara is converting her shots at a 56.8% clip. 

That leaves Chloe Clardy, averaging just 6.8 minutes since conference play began.  That understates her value as a ball handler and assist maker. When Arizona’s pressing guards were disrupting Stanford’s offensive flow, Clardy came in to steady things, scoring 6 points and dishing out 4 assists in 21 minutes of floor time. 

Meanwhile, during the last six games, the MVP award goes to Cameron Brink, who has avoided foul trouble while playing an average of 32.8 minutes, scoring 21 points and hauling in 15 boards per game.  Those numbers don’t adequately describe Brink’s value to the team.  Brink had 28 blocks during the six games, with countless other shots altered or not taken because of Brink’s presence in the game.  That's why Brink is a serious candidate for a league or national MVP award.  

    

Positives From a Weekend Split: WAT-KIN-S-top A Player Like That?

 

Warren Grimes

JuJu Watkins is an amazing player-- the best USC has ever had.  She is more versatile and has more finesse than either Lisa Leslie or Tina Thompson.  She is a wonderful point guard who can battle with the bigs on the inside.  Quite simply a phenom who can shoot inside and out, block, defend, board, and assist.  She emphatically documented this by scoring 51 points against Stanford, a national best for the year.  As a freshman, she is well positioned to be the conference player of the year. 

The disappearing Pac-12 has had some fantastic players, including Washington’s Kelsey Plum and Oregon’s Sabrina Ionescu.  If I get to choose first, it’s an easy choice:  I’ll take Juju Watkins any day of the week.    

Watkins scored all but 16 of USC’s 67 points in the upset win over Stanford on Friday night.  Stanford still won the interior battle:  Brink had 19 points and 15 boards; Iriafen had 16 points and 9 boards.  But both shot poorly – their collective 31% is well below either player’s average.  USC played tough on the inside, in the process fouling out 3 of its interior players.  They had enough, however, to disrupt Stanford’s offense and limit the team to 58 points on 31.6% shooting. 

The game was a disappointment because, Watkins notwithstanding, a team that exploited USC’s defensive choices could have prevailed.  On any given day, USC can challenge anyone.  But a team that relies so heavily on one player is vulnerable when the star has an off day.  We’ll see.

Would Stanford be able to bounce back against number-7 ranked UCLA?  Any doubt seemed resolved when Stanford converted its first six shots.  The team never looked back.  Stanford more than doubled its shooting percentage from the previous game – from 31.6% to 63.5% - the best percentage in a decade.   37 of those points came from Brink and Iriafen, but contributions came from Jump (10) and four other players with 5 or more points.  There were 17 turnovers, always an issue when playing UCLA, but Stanford compensated by blocking 10 UCLA attempts and outrebounding the Bruins 43 to 29.

UCLA played without its pivotal inside player Lauren Betts and missed a bunch of other talented bigs.  Emily Bessoir, a 6 -4 big who can shoot the three, is injured and will miss the entire season.   Izzy Anstey,  6 -4, was also out for medical reasons.  Lina Sontag, 6 -3 and from Germany, started against Cal but left before the Stanford game to join the national team for Olympic try outs.  That left Angela Dugalic, also 6-4 but relatively inexperienced.  She scored 6 points in 22 minutes on the floor (and now leaves for Serbia to play with the Serbian national team). UCLA has superior guards but is quite unexpectedly short of tall talent.  The Bruins desperately need Betts to come back, or at least for Olympic try outs to end.

Stanford is still favorably positioned to win the conference.  They are tied with Colorado, each with two losses.  But Colorado will face Utah, UCLA, and USC, all on the road.  Stanford’s toughest road game, at least on paper, is against Oregon State.  Of course, as VanDerveer constantly reminds her team, any conference team can knock you down.

Brink now has four consecutive games with 15 plus points and 15 plus boards.  Even more critical for the defense, Brink had 15 blocks in the two weekend games.  Her 3.6 block average for conference games makes it easier for Stanford to focus on perimeter defense.  It’s no surprise that Stanford is 1^st in the conference in three-point conversions allowed and second in conference percentage field goal defense.  Brink makes any opponent rethink their offense.  Meanwhile, no Stanford opponent has been able to stop Kiki Iriafen.  The two players make one another better.  Stanford is first in the conference in rebounding margin. 

For Stanford to improve further, the perimeter players must add to the offensive diversity of this team. More than anything else, to win, Stanford must maintain focus and intensity for every minute in every single matchup.