January 29, 2020

Loss, Opportunity, and Deep Depth

Warren Grimes

Stanford’s mid January weekend in Oregon did not turn out well.  On Friday, the team suffered a 32 point humiliation to Oregon.  Worse was to come.

On Sunday, the team bested Oregon State, but lost Haley Jones to what is likely a season-ending knee injury.  Losing Jones is a big deal.

Haley “Versatility” Jones was the country’s number one ranked high school recruit, and in the running to win freshman of the year awards.  She had started 13 games for Stanford and seemed to be improving fast.  In conference play, Jones had moved up to be the team’s second leading scorer.  Had trends continued, Jones could well have been the team’s top scorer by season’s end. 

Not the best three point shooter, Jones seems to do everything else very well.  Jones was second only to Kiana Williams in generating assists.  She steals the ball, blocks opponents’ shots, blocks out, and gathers many a rebound, including offensive put backs.

Jones often played the power forward position.  At six foot one, Jones is still strong enough to occupy space and effectively guard taller players.  Using Jones in the four position allowed the team to place five very effective defenders and offensive players on the floor.  On offense, Jones is a creator.  When the shot clock is winding down, Jones can drive the basket, make pull up jumpers, execute spin moves, and often find a passing lane to assist a teammate’s shot. 

No other player has this valuable skill set.  Still, after the Oregon weekend, Stanford went home to Maples and bested Colorado (barely) and Utah (decisively).  Stanford won despite playing without four injured players.  Three of them were high school All Americans and regular starters (Jones, Maya Dodson, and Dijonai Carrington).  The fourth has played on Canadian national teams (Alyssa Jerome).  With all of this injured talent, how did Stanford pull off the wins?

Baseball great Yogi Berra said his team had “deep depth.”  Well, Berra’s Yankees aren’t alone.  Stanford women’s hoops has its own deep depth.  Last weekend, Stanford started a team with three high school All Americans: Nadia Fingall, Kiana Williams and Ashten Prechtel.  The other two starters had won high school POY honors for the State of Washington (the Hull twins).  Three more high school All Americans came off the bench (Fran Belibi, Anna Wilson, and Jenna Brown).  The team, despite the injuries, had a strong nine player rotation for these games, including Hannah Jump, who dazzled from the three point line against Utah. 

None of this can make up for Jones’ loss.  Still, the learning curve is rapid for three of the freshmen (Prechtel, Belibi, and Jump).  Prechtel is now a starter and delivered in crunch time against Colorado.  Belibi scored a team and career high 20 points against Utah.  Jump made three long distance shots against Utah, and had 14 points in all against Utah.  These players can help make Stanford a feared and fearsome team at season’s end.

Can Stanford duplicate Notre Dame’s achievement two years ago (winning the national championship despite being riddled with injuries)?  Perhaps not.  But the rest of the season is sure to be interesting.  The loss of Jones, who was frequently playing the four, leaves an opportunity for Prechtel (already blossoming) and particularly Belibi.  And, of course, there is still the possibility of getting Carrington, a strong perimeter player who can battle underneath, and Dodson, a strong inside defender and rebounder, back in the rotation. 

Stanford still has deep depth!

January 17, 2020

How Stanford Can Play Better Against Oregon


Stanford suffered another lopsided loss to Oregon on Thursday, only slightly less humiliating than last year’s loss at Maples.  Give Oregon lots of credit.  But Stanford can do better.
Oregon can be beaten.  It’s already happened twice this season, once to a then unranked ASU team.  When Oregon is on its game, however, they are a formidable team.  They have amazing chess pieces to work with.  They bested team USA; and they played with the same relentless energy in dispatching Stanford on Thursday. 
Sabrina Ionescu should win the national MVP award and will likely be the first player drafted by the WNBA.  Ruthy Hebard is a world class post player.  Hebard can be doubled, but only by leaving other players open.  And Satau Sabally is power forward who, when her game is on, can play with the very best.  She too will be a high draft choice.
Stanford has to do two things (at least) to improve the odds in the next matchup.  First, Stanford has to cut way down on turnovers.  Stanford had 18 turns, 10 of them during the second half massacre.  A turnover is the absolute worst way to end a possession.  I’d prefer a shot clock violation to a turnover.
To be sure, shot clock violations are frustrating and worthy of some head banging.  But shot clock violations take a full 30 seconds off the game clock, time that the opponent cannot score.  And when the shot buzzer sounds, play stops and the opponent must inbound the ball.  This gives the defense time to organize and tends to negate any transition offense by the opponent.
Turnovers invite transition offense.  There’s no more fearsome sight than Ionescu heading down court in transition mode.  Just for the record, Oregon scored 22 points off turnovers (Stanford had only 2).  Of course, defensive rebounds can also lead to a transition offense, but turnovers are the absolute worst because they are unexpected and often occur in the back court.
When Oregon was in its half court offense, their productivity was impressive, but their offensive efficiency fell short of their transition offense.  In the second half, for example, Ionescu, on her way to a career high 37 points, was merely 2-5 from the three point line, but 7-8 inside the arc.  She was converting pull up jumpers and acrobatic layups, many of them in transition.
The other thing that Stanford must change is its own half court offense.  Stanford in transition can be the equal of Oregon.  Kiana Williams can be awesome, and other mobile players like Jones, the Hull sisters, and even the posts (Fingall and Prechtel) can run the court and score in transition.  Stanford had no transition offense against Oregon, partly because Oregon was making so many shots.  That left everything on the half court offense, and that was pretty miserable in the last 18 minutes of the game.
The last two times Stanford has bested Oregon, in the Pac 12 tournament last year and in Eugene two seasons back, Stanford had fewer turnovers and a more than respectable half court offense.  In the first of those wins, Brittany McPhee went wild in the second half and humiliated the Ducks.  Her offense was largely off the dribble, with the help of some well-placed screens.  In last season’s victory, Alanna Smith, DiJonai Carrington, and Kiana Williams took productive turns in the half court sets.  Of course, when Stanford scored, the Ducks lost transition opportunities and had to generate their own half court game.
In this most recent loss, Stanford lost patience in the second half, attempting to force interior passes that simply weren’t there.  That led to turnovers and Oregon’s formidable transition offense.  Give the Oregon defense credit.  They were ready for Stanford’s interior passing and cuts to the basket.  The Stanford team, however, has to be sufficiently flexible to adjust to that kind of defensive pressure.  The team can rely more on screens, but it also needs a go to player like Brittany McPhee or Alanna Smith: a player who can consistently create in the paint.  Stanford has players with these capabilities, including the absent Dijonai Carrington, but they will have to step up when Stanford next plays Oregon.
Actually, Stanford can’t wait that long.  The team will have to step up its game for all the remaining conference games, starting with Oregon State on Sunday.  Learn from the loss, and move on!

January 06, 2020

Stanford WBB: Scoring by Committee?

Warren Grimes

Stanford finished the first days in January with an overall 13-1 record.  With over one-third of the season already behind us, it’s worth a look back and a peek forward.

Losing only one of the first 14 games is an achievement.  This was not a soft preseason schedule.  The wins were accomplished without any one player consistently leading the scoring.  The wins came, in words of Tara VanDerveer, through “scoring by committee.”  In the fourteen games, seven different players were the leading scorers for the game.  The team’s top three scorers (Lexie Hull - 13.2 average; Kiana Williams - 12.4 average; and Haley Jones - 10.8 average) each had team highs in three games, but Nadia Fingall (in two games) and Lacie Hull, Ashten Prechtel, and Hannah Jump (in one game each) also achieved team highs.  That’s impressive.  None of these players may receive an MVP award at the end of the season.  But collectively, they are vital parts of a teamwork offense that creates nightmares for the defense.

I never have liked committees.  Meetings are too long and too tedious, with some members talking just to hear themselves talk.  But that’s not what VanDerveer meant by committee scoring.  She meant sharing the scoring burden, and doing it through teamwork.  Teamwork can be measured in part through assists, and Stanford excelled in this category.  In the fourteen games, Stanford had 220 assists to opponents’ 119.  Perhaps not surprisingly, the top three scoring players were also the top three in assists (Williams 53, Jones 32, and Lexie Hull 28).  When your top scorers are also your top assist makers, that spells excellence in basketball at any level.

Stanford is team oriented not only on offense, but also on defense.  Stanford’s carefully scouted help defense has long been a trademark for VanDerveer.  But this team, even with inexperienced freshmen, seems destined to play the help defense with aplomb.  Low opponent scores, numerous steals, and a lot of blocks are all measures of an efficient help defense.  On scoring, Stanford has an average 20.8 scoring margin (good but not great), has out-stolen oppenents 113 to 103 (better than Stanford teams of the past) and has out blocked opponents by a very impressive margin (81 to 22).

For the steals, Lexie Hull has been most impressive, with 23 steals, but five other players have double digit steals in the first 14 games.  There’s a lesson here.  Hold onto your wallet when the Stanford players are around.  And beware: this theft racket is definitely a team effort.

Its time to talk about the freshmen.  When, if ever, has Stanford brought in four recruits, all of whom, in their first year, have either found their way into the starting lineup (Jones has started nine games and Belibi has started four) or are getting meaningful minutes (Jump has averaged 12.8 minutes and Prechtel 12.5 minutes)?  I can’t recall that ever happening.  A “Fab 4" for the Stanford women! Both Jump and Prechtel have been team high scorers in one game.  Who has the highest points per minute average for the team?  None other than Hannah Jump with .563 per minute.  I noticed that Jump is learning to fake a shot and then drive the basket.  She’s also learning to better utilize screens.  Watch out!

On a blocks per minute tally, it is Ashten Prechtel that leads the team, slightly ahead of her freshman teammate Belibi.  Prechtel is also the second most efficient rebounder (on a per minute basis).  The wildcard is her three point shooting, which gives the defense fits.  Prechtel has a lot to learn about playing the help defense and defending the post, but she, like the other freshmen, will improve with seasoning.

Haley Jones has been the high scorer in three separate games.  Her performance is on the rise. If current trends continue, by the end of the season, Jones will be the team’s top scorer in many, many games (and the second highest in assists).  Jones has size, deceptive speed, basketball smarts and the competitive spirit to contribute inside and out, defensively and offensively.  Jones is showing why she was the #1 ranked high school recruit in the country.  No need to say more.

Then there’s Belibi.  She’s had adjustments, including issues with turnovers, fouling, and learning the scout defense.  But Belibi has started the last three games, for good reason.  Belibi is the team’s leading rebounder on a per minute basis.  She’s also the team leader in field goal percentage, primarily because of her under the basket performance.  Belibi gets boards that other players on the team would not get (a healthy DiJonai Carrington might be an exception).  Belibi is not yet a reliable and creative shot maker when the shot clock is running down, but the potential is there for her to be that and more.

Finally, not enough is written about the team’s critical upperclassmen.  Seniors Nadia Fingall and Anna Wilson are playing the best basketball of their careers.  Fingall was known for her post skills on offense and defense, but surprised WSU with her three point shooting.  When Fingall is in the game, the defense cannot ignore her outside shooting.  All the more likely that a zone defense will be problematic for the opponent.  Anna Wilson is a defensive stalwart with 11 steals.  Her 24 assists, because of her more limited minutes, are on a par with Kiana Williams’ assist per minute performance.  She can spell Williams without any noticable offensive loss, or play with Williams to tighten the defense.

Kianna Williams is one of the conference’s (and nation’s) top point guards.  She’d had some down games recently, but against Washington, Williams took over the game in the second half with her game high 20 points and multiple assists.  Williams is a team leader who steps up when it matters most.

After Friday’s home game against Cal, Stanford will be on the road for the next three games, including games in Oregon where the top five ranked home teams will be favored.  Really tough assignments, but I look forward to watching this young and talented Stanford team take on the very best.