The Ionescu Massacres of 2020

Two separate massacres, in two distinct locations, occurred during an eight week period in the Winter of 2020.  The perpetrators were the same six individuals, led by a charismatic young woman named Sabrina Ionescu.  Her fellow assailants were five other young women, all bearing the “Ducks” logo.  

A strange moniker for participants in a double massacre?  Indeed!  But those were no ordinary ducks.  They were an elite group of athletes that had carefully selected and scouted their intended victim: the Stanford women’s basketball team.

An obscure nineteenth century statistician, Covid Ardvaark, developed a measurement for assessing the severity of these sports-related massacres.  The unit of measurement might have been called a “Covid-Aardvark”, but that label was awkward.  So folks just settled on the term “points.”  By this measure, the January 16 massacre in Eugene, Oregon was a 32 point disaster.  Eight weeks later, a 33 point debacle occurred in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Just who are these massacre-perpetrating Ducks?  

Sabrina Ionescu might be the best female basketball player in the world today.  If the WNBA were to start over, with each team building a completely new roster from all available pro and amateur players, Ionescu could well be the first player drafted.  I can’t think of anyone I’d pick ahead of her.

In this year’s WNBA draft, Ionescu will be the first selected, but two other Oregon players (Satou Sabally and Ruthy Hebard) could also be among the top five selected.  If that happens, it would suggest that three of the five best draft eligible college players in the country played for the same team.  The Ionescu-Sabally-Hebard trio does not include another player with draft potential, Minyon Moore, who in Las Vegas laid 21 points on Stanford while shooting 4 for 5 from three point land.  Nor does it include Erin Boley and Taylor Chavez, both among the top three point shooters in the country.  

Yes, the Ducks are a pro quality team, and probably a superior pro-quality team.  In the preseason, Oregon convincingly defeated team USA, made up of some of the best pro players in the WNBA.  The Ducks should be the odds on favorite to win the national championship.  

The best defense against Oregon?  Maybe the Covid 19 virus.  This edition of the Ducks is the best team ever to play at that school, and could be the best women’s college team of the decade.  To definitively establish this, however, Oregon must win six more games.

If the Pac-12 conference really is the best, it’s time for the conference to win a national championship, something that has not happened for 28 years (Stanford won it in 1992).  Five Pac12 schools are projected to be top four seeds in the various regionals: Oregon #1, Stanford #2, UCLA #2, Arizona #4, and Oregon State #4.  More than one of these teams could make the final four.  But Oregon, by far, has the best chance of taking home the bacon.

Looking beyond next year, Oregon will likely continue to be a class act, with an excellent recruiting class coming in the Fall.  But they will lose four of five regular starters, among them Ionescu and two other All Americans.  

Meanwhile, the season is not over for Stanford.  They are a projected number two seed in the NCAA tournament.  Stanford is actually a very good team this year, having lost only six games, three of them to Oregon.  The team has performed well despite losing two of its very best players to long term injuries.  Both Dijonai Carrington and Haley Jones would have diversified and increased offensive output.  What if Jones or Carrington, or both of them, had been available in the tournament final?  Oregon may still have been the better team, but no more losses by 33 point margins.

Did Stanford make a mistake in its game plan against Oregon?  That plan called for Maya Dodson to guard Hebard - an approach that worked well in last year’s upset tournament victory over Oregon and in this season’s game at Maples.  The plan also called for sagging off Minyon Moore to pack the interior against other Oregon scorers.  The plan obviously didn’t work.  Minyon scored 21 points and Hebard 24 points.  

There is no evident defensive strategy that would likely have unravelled a team with such gifted and diverse offensive potential.  Ashten Prechtel played for 19 minutes and made two of three long range shots in the process of chalking up 14 points.  Her presence for more minutes might have increased Stanford’s offensive output, but Prechtel seemed no more effective in stopping Hebard than Stanford’s other post players.

Oregon’s statistical dominance over Stanford is clear.  In the two massacres, Oregon averaged a 32.5 point margin, more than the Ducks’ season average 28.1 margin built up against lesser opponents.  Oregon clearly played its best in these contests. 

As humbling as these statistics are, it is worth noting that Stanford was, at season’s end, the second best team in the most competitive conference in the country.  Over the course of the season, Stanford had victories over #9 Mississippi State, #10 UCLA, #11 Gonzaga, and #25 Arizona State, not to mention three victories over #14 Oregon State.  Stanford’s only loss to a non top 15 school was on the road against Texas, another NCAA tournament-bound team.  

Further proof of Stanford’s mettle?  Stanford took down #10 UCLA in the semi-final game.  In that game, UCLA was held to 51 points, well below its season average.  Michaela Onyenwere was held to 16 points on 6 for 16 shooting.  Onyenwere got six rebounds, not enough.  These were very good numbers for the Stanford defense.

To make a deep run in the tournament, Stanford must continue playing defense the way it did against UCLA.  And the team must find a way to share the scoring burden with Kiana Williams and Lexie Hull.  Ashten Prechtel and friends need to step it up.

Regular Season Roundup: What’s Surprising, What’s Not?

Warren Grimes

Stanford ended the regular season with a 25-5 record, and a tie for second place in the conference.  UCLA gets the higher seed in the tournament based on the head-to-head win, but Stanford’s three seed avoids a potential Oregon match before the final.  

Looking back to the season’s start in November, how much of this was predictable?  What are the surprises?  The disappointments?  The unexpected triumphs?

It’s not a surprise to this writer that Oregon won the conference title, nor that Stanford got second place.  Having to share that place with UCLA is a bit of a surprise, as was the loss to UCLA at Maples.  

Still, the biggest disappointments, by far, were the loss of two key players to serious injuries.  Both were potential all conference or even all American players.  In the five games that DiJonai Carrington played, she established the highest points per minute rate on the team (.507).  That number might have gone down a bit as opposition intensified.  But Carrington was a go to player who could score points creatively as the shot clock wound down.  She was also an astonishing rebounder.  At .35 boards per minute in the first five games, Carrington would have been the team’s most efficient rebounder had she kept up this pace.

Haley Jones?  She had worked herself into the starting lineup based on her creative scoring and assist making.  She ends the season with an 11.4 points per game average, third highest on the team.  She was on an upward trajectory, and could well have finished as the team’s top scorer.  Jones was fun to watch on the fast break.  She was also a strong defender, chalking up many blocks and steals.  Jones would have been a strong candidate for conference Freshman of the Year.  

The loss of both Jones and Carrington has meant a greater burden on Williams and Lexie Hull, who have been the two go to players for the second half of the season.  To a considerable extent, opponents have been able to focus defensive strategy on these two. 

As for triumphs, the team has shown resilience and the ability to survive in close games.  Stanford fell short against Arizona in a one possession game, but came out on top against Oregon State and against Colorado in two games that were wonderful comeback stories.  The team is at its best when the three point shots are falling, and Stanford’s season 36.1% rate is more than respectable.  The team leaders in percentage are Hannah Jump at 41 % and Lexie Hull at 39 %, but there’s not much fall off when the ball is in the hands of Williams, or Fingall, or Prechtel, or Lacie Hull, or Jerome.  When the threes are falling, Stanford is capable of beating anyone.  

Team defense is a standard feature of a VanDerveer team, and this year is no exception.  Opponents have averaged 59.6 points per game, a figure that is all the more impressive in the context of a Pac 12 conference that is loaded with offensive firepower.  Stanford is out stealing its opponents (235 to 214), a result not achieved by many Stanford teams of the past.  

Kiana Williams is Ms. Clutch Performer.  That’s not a surprise.  She had already done this in two previous seasons.  Williams leads the team in both points and assists.  Her 1.77 assist/turnover ratio is the best on the team.  With Williams, the raw stats don’t tell the full story.  She converts when it matters most.  In Boulder, she scored 6 points in less than 13 seconds to overcome a deficit and win the game, including a last second three pointer launched from the parking lot.  A memory worth savoring.

In different ways, the Hull twins have both triumphed.  They both excel on defense.  Lacie typically draws the opponent’s best scorer. The twins lead the team in steals per minute (Lacie has a team leading .055 thefts per minute, with Lexie not far behind at .51 per minute).  Lacie has the lowest points per game average of any starter, but cannot be left alone.  She converts threes at over a 36% rate.  Lacie takes care of the ball and generates assists (her 1.76 assist to turnover ratio barely trails Williams’ team leading 1.77).

Lexie Hull is the team’s second leading scorer.  Lexie is tied with Williams for the most three point shots, and her conversion rate (39%) is second only to Hannah Jump.  Although troubled with turnovers in some recent matchups, Lexie’s assist total is second highest on the team.  My thought is that Lexie has pushed a bit to score in the interior when the shots weren’t there.  But even on off days, Lexie is present for every moment of the game, getting boards, stealing the ball, and always a pest to the player she’s guarding. She’s invaluable.

Let’s talk about the freshman class.  Back in November, there was speculation about how many of the four outstanding freshmen would be starting by season’s end.  We now have the answer.  In the last half dozen games, the answer is ZERO.  That number, however, is misleading.  Haley Jones had a substantial run of starts before her knee injury.  If healthy, she would almost certainly be a regular starter.  Two of the other three freshmen have started 6 games (Belibi and Prechtel), and all three are part of an extraordinarily deep rotation.  Ten players, not counting Carrington, have averaged more than 10 minutes per game.  

So yes, the freshman class is pivotal to the success of this team.  On a boards per minute basis, Prechtel (at .333) and Belibi (.331) are the team leaders.  Blocks?  Prechtel leads the team with .069 per minute.  In points per minute, Prechtel’s .493 is second only to Carrington.  And Belibi leads the team in field goal percentage (59%).  Prechtel gets my vote as the biggest surprise.  Her interior game, while still a work in progress, is already formidable.  She boards, she blocks out, she blocks shots, and she scores consistently down low.   Then, just for fun, she moves out beyond the three point line, where she converts at a 32% rate.  

Even without Jones, the three freshmen will have a chance to make a difference in this weekend’s Pac-12 tournament.  May they continue to refine their games for the Big Dance!