Stanford's Unprecedented and Exceptional Janurary

 

Warren Grimes

On the last Sunday of the month, Stanford finished its January schedule with a hard fought 75-69 victory over #8 Arizona.  With only 8 games played in the month, Covid had subtracted from a 10 game schedule.  The string of 8 January victories was nonetheless an extraordinary accomplishment.

So what's such a big deal about a string of 8 victories?  Well, to begin with, it's the way it was done.

Let’s begin with Arizona.  This was a rematch of the NCAA championship game 10 months ago.  The Wildcats lost their high scoring point guard, but showed impressive offensive balance in scoring 69 points (Arizona had only 53 points in the NCAA championship game last year).  Stanford took an early lead, but that lead was never more than 12.  Single digit leads were vulnerable to back and forth scoring runs.  Cate Reese was a major contributor for the Wildcats, with 17 points on 3 for 6 shooting from beyond the arc.  The game was not decided until the last minute.

Haley Jones had hurt Arizona badly back in March 2021, so Arizona coach Adia Barnes worked to  control Jones.  Barnes succeeded in keeping Jones away from the basket, limiting her to 4 points on 2 for 12 shooting (Jones still had 7 boards and 6 assists).  Defending Stanford, however, is like a whack-a-mole game.  You stop one player, and up pops another to make your life miserable.  In this case, Cameron Brink had a career game with 25 points and 15 boards.  And the real and unexpected pop up player was Jana Van Gytenbeek, who came off the bench to score 18 points on 6/8 three point shooting.

That’s really Stanford’s January story.  It’s an exceptional story about depth and the ability of different players to step up and make a difference when their mates are stymied.  Opponents can stop some but not all of Stanford’s offensive options.

Take a look at each of the last eight games to see who has been the top scorer.  Four different starters (Haley Jones 4 times, Cameron Brink 2 times, Lexie Hull and Hannah Jump once) have been the top scorer in one or more of these eight games.

If one broadens the metric to see which players have been among the top three scorers in each game, Stanford’s diversity and depth becomes even more apparent.  In six of the eight January games, players from off the bench have been among the top three scorers for the team.  Fran Belibi has been among the top three in four games while Kiki Iriafen has achieved that goal in two games.  Three other substitutes have been a top three scorer in one of the last eight games: Anna Wilson, Ashten Prechtel, and Jana Van Gytenbeek.

With that sort of breadth and depth, one could honestly view the five starters, plus another five substitutes that have made substantial point contributions, as a formidable, whack-a-mole rotation. And it's not just points.  Players such as Anna Wilson come off the bench to contribute on defense.  Indeed, I would argue that the actual rotation is larger, and includes Jordan Hamilton, Agnes Emma Nnopu, and Brooke Demetre.   Each of these players played in critical moments in January.

Both Emma Nnopu and Hamilton played vital minutes in the opening half against California, when the Bears were threatening.  And Demetre was brought in as a substitute for Jones in the critical first half against Arizona.  Each of these players has her own strengths and can be used situationally.  For example, Demetre did not score a lot of points in January, but is a consistent and focused player who makes few mistakes, plays smart defense, and can be a deadly jump shooter from long and mid-range.  She’s a player who can break down a zone defense.

Doing the addition, Stanford’s situational rotation includes 13 players (at least) who can be called upon in critical moments of a game.  If one or more of these players has an off night, bring in someone else.

What else can be said about the eight game January run?   Resilience, of course, is high on the list.  Opponents in the toughest conference in the country regularly bring their A game against Stanford.  Even California, which is so far winless in conference, played Stanford tough in the second quarter, ending the half with a tie score.  Stanford’s defense – and its whack-a-mole offense -- made the difference in six hotly contested January games.  Only against Washington State and ASU did Stanford assert a comfortable first half lead and maintain it in the second half. 

Two other common themes were evident in the January games.  The first is improved free throw shooting.  For the season, the team is shooting just 67% from the charity stripe, but exceeded that percentage in every one of the last eight games (from a low of 70% against Colorado to a high of 83.3% against Oregon).

The second theme is rebounding.  Stanford won the rebounding battle in each of the last eight games.  The margin was close against Oregon (33-29), but more one-sided against other opponents.  Stanford out boarded Arizona by a 34 to 26 margin.   The rebounding advantage helps to offset Stanford turnovers, where January opponents continued to exploit the team (Stanford had 18 turns against Arizona while Arizona yielded just 11). 

What’s ahead is the second half of the conference schedule, including possible make up games.  Stanford may be favored in each of these games, but will be sorely tested by Oregon in Eugene and by every other conference opponent who can bring their A game.   This weekend, those opponents will be a very talented but short-handed UCLA and USC.

High Altitude Resilience

 

Warren Grimes

Stanford coach Tara VanDerveer has often spoken of the resilience of last year’s championship-winning team.  Is that still true this year?  Even at high altitude?

Boulder, Colorado, where Stanford played Colorado on last Friday evening, is more than a mile (5328 feet) above sea level.  The Huntsman Arena in Salt Lake, in the hills above the city, is almost that high (4803 feet above sea level).

I can’t say that the altitude didn’t matter.  But yes, Stanford definitely proved it’s still resilient this year, even at high altitudes.  In both contests Stanford was challenged by a motivated and very good team.  Colorado came into the game ranked no. 22 and the last undefeated team in Division IA.  Utah was 9-3 with some exciting new freshmen and an attitude.

Both opponents played great in the first half and had a lead at halftime.  Both opponents, especially Colorado, played inspired defense.  In the first quarter, Colorado’s aggressive defense generated double digit turnovers.  The Buffaloes had a 15 to 8 point advantage at the end of the first 10 minutes.  The turns were less frequent as the game progressed, but Colorado generated a humbling 22 turns against Stanford. 

Stanford, however, was resilient, winning every subsequent quarter.  It was an 8-point margin (60-52) at the end, but the outcome was in doubt until the last minutes.  The Stanford starters were there, particularly Haley Jones with 11 points, 8 boards, and 5 assists.  Stanford dominated the boards to at least partially offset the turns (Brink, Belibi, and Prechtel had 7 boards each, and Iriafen played just 3 minutes, but got 3 boards and 2 points in that time).

So what is the takeaway from the Colorado game?  Teams with high energy and quickness on defense can wreak havoc with Stanford’s offense.  But can they do it for a full 40 minutes?  Colorado succeeded splendidly for the first 8 minutes of the game, building an 11 point margin in the first quarter.  But a combination of better ball control by Stanford and a gradual decrease in focus and intensity on the part of Colorado was enough to turn this game.  The game was very physical, but Stanford was able to answer with its own physicality.  On that note, Ashten Prechtel has always played great against Colorado, and did that again with her 10 points and 7 boards (Prechtel was 2/4 from long distance).

Utah was a different story.  But like Colorado, the Utes were an inspired opponent that took a substantial first half lead against Stanford.  This time, the opponent’s deluge came in the second quarter when the Utes blitzed Stanford from the three point line and took, at one point, a 13-point lead.  The half ended with Utah enjoying a 7 point margin (37 to 30).  Utah’s secret wasn’t so much its aggressive defense.  They generated 12 Stanford turns, but really it was the Utes efficient half-court offense that generated more points against Stanford (73) than any other opponent this season.  Maryland and Gonzaga managed 68 points in losses to Stanford.  Even in its three losses, Stanford did not give up more than 65 points.  Against Stanford, the Utes shot 39% from distance, and 40% overall. 

That efficiency fell off in the fourth quarter, when Utah got only 10 points (against Stanford’s 23 points).   So, once again, Stanford’s fourth quarter defense won the game.  The game was still up for grabs late into the quarter, but the momentum for Utah was squelched by Stanford’s defense.  The other story of this game is that Stanford was able to put on its own offensive display, led by Cameron Brink’s 24 points and 11 boards, and Lexie Hull’s 21 points (5 three pointers).  The third highest scorer for Stanford?  Anna Wilson had 12 critical points, including two three pointers and two midrange jumpers that were real difference makers.

Speaking of stop-and-pops, Stanford could do more with the midrange jumper.  Opponents can harass our three point shooters, as Colorado did.  They can clog the middle, as both the mountain schools did.  But there are openings in the midrange that Stanford could exploit.  I’d like to see Haley Jones and Lexie and Lacie do more from the midrange.  Brink and Jump too.

Free throw shooting, which plagued Stanford earlier this season, has improved.  Cameron Brink, who had struggled mightily with free throws, was 8 for 11 during the two games.   As a team, Stanford was 32 for 44 during the two games – that’s a respectable 73 percent.

Another note is Stanford’s continuing demonstration of versatility.  The game high scorer has been different for each of the last four games (Lexie Hull – Oregon, Hannah Jump – Gonzaga, Haley Jones – Colorado, and Cameron Brink – Utah).  Different players off the bench have contributed in these games, including Fran Belibi, Ashten Prechtel, Anna Wilson, and Kiki Iriafen.  Stanford is a versatile and talented handful.

Before Stanford moves on to upcoming games against California, you can check off the box for “resilience at high altitude.” 

Washington State: How to Frame the Question

 

Warren Grimes

Going into Sunday’s Washington State game, there were two ways to frame the question.

How could Stanford possibly win?

Stanford was without five very talented players because of the Covid protocol.  Among them were top scorer and shot blocker Cameron Brink.  True, Stanford had defeated number seven-ranked and previously undefeated Tennessee with Brink in foul trouble, playing only 8 minutes.  Against Tennessee, however, Stanford had Ashten Prechtel, a dominant post player who came off the bench and devastated the Volunteers in the fourth quarter.  Prechtel, however, was also out, as was a third veteran post player, Alyssa Jerome.  Yep, Stanford was thin at the post.  The other two missing players – Agnes Emma Nnopu and Brooke Demetre – also had seen significant playing time off the bench.  Things did not look rosy for Stanford.

How could Stanford possibly lose?

Stanford had four of its five regular starters, led by All American Haley Jones and the Hull twins. Close to home country – and with family in the stands – you knew the Hulls were there to play.   To replace Brink at the post, Fran Belibi was and is a player of consequence.  Off the bench, there were players like Anna Wilson and blossoming freshman post Kiki Iriafen.  That is a roster of a top ten team.  This is the deepest team Stanford has ever had, with more than enough talent to take down the Cougars.

So, it turns out, the second question call was the more accurate.  After a struggling first quarter, Stanford turned on the defense and almost doubled Washington State on the score board (82 to 44).  The Hull twins and Anna Wilson led the charge on defense (Lacie Hull played 36 minutes).  As she had against Tennessee, Haley Jones was there with bells on – 24 points, 16 boards, and 3 assists.   Actually, Jones could have had more assists if teammates hadn’t missed some easy conversions.

Also Iriafen came to play, providing a meaningful post presence with 13 points and 8 boards in just 14 minutes.  As did Belibi, who started at the post, scoring 10 points and grabbing 8 boards in her 16 minutes of court time.  If you do the math, that means that for 10 minutes of the game, Stanford played without a regular post player.  Not to worry – Haley Jones can do that too.  True, playing the post against Washington State is made easier because the Cougars don’t have a lot to offer at that position.  Still, with her strength and quickness, Jones can play the post when asked to do so.  

Jones does what the team needs.  Point guard?  Shooting guard?  Power forward?  Post?  Her flexibility, along with her productivity, is why jones should be a consensus first team All American this season.   That result isn’t a given.  When other players (for example, Brink, Lexie Hull, or Hannah Jump) have the hot hand, Jones will back off a bit on the offense.   So far, Jones hasn't done what Ionescu did for Oregon two years ago – constantly lead the team in scoring, assists, and often  boards as well.  Ionescu was a triple double master.  Jones could be that as well, but sometimes, she appears to lose focus.   Is that because Jones lacks the fire, or is it a wise and team-enhancing choice to share the limelight with her teammates? 

So far this season, Jones appears to play best when it is most needed.  She did that in the tournament last year; she did it this year against Tennessee; and, I expect and hope, she will continue to do so,  including against the Oregon schools this weekend..