Texas Two-Step: For Stanford, the Second Step's the Best

 Warren Grimes

Stanford Women’s Hoops faced Texas twice this year.  Stanford lost in November, but won in the Elite Eight when it mattered most.  Hard to script it better.  The revenge came in Sunday’s hard fought regional final.  The game was physical and intense from start to finish.

But it was almost a déjà vu.

Stanford had 20 turnovers in the November game.  Had to improve, right? 

Sorry, same 20 turns in the March game.

Stanford converted only 4 of 27 three point attempts (14.8%) in the November game.  That couldn’t happen again, right? 

Actually, it didn’t happen again, but in some ways got worse.  In the Elite Eight, Stanford converted one less shot and barely improved the percentage -- only 3 of 17 three point attempts (17.6%).

Despite these miserables, Stanford won a hard fought game. 

Stanford won because the team defended better and held the Longhorns to just 50 points, 11 fewer than Texas scored in the November game. 

Stanford won because, despite the 20 turns, Stanford gave up ZERO fast break points to Texas (compared to 12 fast break points in the November contest).

Stanford won because, despite the turns, they improved assist/turnover ratio from a miserable .35 in November to a markedly less miserable .70 in March.

Stanford won because Lexie Hull defended with focus and intensity while scoring 20 points, including a key fourth quarter three-point shot.

Stanford won because Cameron Brink swatted away 6 Texas shots, limiting Texas to 16 points in the paint (compared to 24 points in the November contest).

Stanford won because Haley Jones had a double-double (18 points and 12 boards) and converted 10 of 11 free throws.

Stanford won because Lacie Hull played 40 minutes, scoring no points but contributing intense defense, a positive assist/turnover ratio (4/3) along with 5 boards and 2 blocks. 

Stanford won because Fran Belibi came off the bench and grabbed 11 boards and added 7 points.

Arguably, Stanford, of the #1 regional seeds, faced the most challenging opponent.  Yes, the North Carolina/Connecticut game put two top teams against one another, but neither of those teams could match the Texas 14-game winning streak. 

Getting to the final four saves a bit of face for the Pac-12 Conference.  The Conference tournament record was, uhm, . . . awful.  Of the six Pac-12 teams in the tournament, three were upset in the first round (Colorado, Oregon, and Washington State).  Fourth seeded Arizona was upset in the second round by fifth seeded North Carolina.  That meant that only one Pac-12 school (other than Stanford) played to seed (Seventh seeded Utah lost in the second round to second seeded Texas).

Another measure of the status of the Pac-12 conference is the recruiting successes for next year’s incoming class.  Schools like UCLA, Oregon State, and USC that did not make the tournament all have very strong incoming classes.  The Conference has great potential, but it will have to prove it in the coming seasons.

Meanwhile, Stanford’s very special team has at least one more game to play.  The talent and chemistry of this year’s team make it unique.  Coach VanDerveer was quoted as saying that making the Final Four is always special, but added a superlative for this year’s squad.  

 I’m looking forward to watching this gifted team this weekend.

A Better and More Balanced Team - Appreciating Stanford Excellence

 Warren Grimes

During her press conference after the Pac 12 tournament championship game, Utah Coach Lynne Roberts declared the Stanford team “better” and “more balanced” than last year’s NCAA championship-winning team.  According to Roberts, when the shot clock is winding down, opposing coaches don’t know who will be given the ball.  The loss of Kiana Williams, she conceded, was a big loss for Stanford, but the team has now learned to more than compensate for that loss.

It's difficult to argue with Roberts.  While Haley Jones may be the top “go to” player in a crunch, any player on the floor could be counted on to convert when it matters.  That includes the five starters and at least another five who saw substantial minutes during the Pac-12 tournament (Belibi, Jump, Iriafen, Prechtel, and Emma-Nnopu). 

This year’s team is exceptional for running off 20 non-stop victories since the beginning of January. This includes the entire conference season and the conference tournament.  It is a remarkable achievement, something last year’s team could not muster.  All the while, Stanford has shown steady improvement throughout the season.

Early in the season, a Stanford vulnerability was bringing the ball up the court.  Turnovers generated easy baskets for opponents.  The team, however, did not stand still.  Here are three measures of the team’s assist turnover ratio as the season progressed.

A/T for all games: 1.16

A/T for conference games: 1.22

A/T for the three Pac-12 tournament games: 1.91

Using a similar metric, one can chart the progress of the team in other offensive and defensive areas.

                                                      All Games           Conference Only       3 tourn. Games

Opp Total Points/Game              56.9                        58.67                                     45.67

Scoring Margin                           +16.9                     +18                                         +21.33

3 point FG %                                35%                        36.7%                                    46%

3 point FG % defense                 32%                        34.1%                                    29.23%

Field Goal % defense                 35%                        36.8%                                    30.77%

These statistics do not always flow in a positive direction.  During conference play, Stanford managed to up its free throw percentage to 72.6%, only to see it drop to 69% for the three tournament games.  Still, the overall picture painted by these statistics is a positive one for Stanford.  In the Pac-12 tournament, the team showed the ability to up its game for single elimination, post-season play.  Each of Stanford’s three opponents had won at least one previous matchup (Utah had won three in a row).  Stanford achieved its three-game statistical superiority against very good teams.

What the statistics don’t show is the chemistry that this team possesses.  With the Hulls leading the way, there is a special edge to this team that sets it apart from other Stanford teams.  These players play for each other, and do it with unprecedented focus, talent, and resilience.  Stanford will be a difficult out – actually a very difficult out -- for any opponent in the NCAA tournament.