Stanford's Nice Place in a Wonderfully Chaotic Conference

 

Warren Grimes

The women's hoops Pac-12 season, now at the halfway point, is wonderfully chaotic.  The preseason rankings are already a misfire; bottom half teams are winning games against top teams (as in Washington and Washington State’s victories in Southern California last weekend); and the quality of basketball, although uneven, is very high. 

Stanford, picked to finish third, leads the conference with an 8-1 record.  Colorado, picked to finish fourth, is in second place with a 7-2 record.  Oregon State, picked to finish tenth, is in third place with just three losses.  Meanwhile, Utah, picked to finish first, has four losses. while UCLA, picked to finish second, has three losses. 

Injuries and health have had an impact.  Utah lost its best three-point shooter and (for a time) a starting point guard.  UCLA has played its last couple of games without Lauren Betts.  And Arizona and Washington State have lost key players for at least a few games.  Stanford (fingers crossed) lost Cameron Brink for most of a two-game weekend but has been relatively unaffected. 

The wonderful chaos will continue this weekend as the Southern California schools visit Maples in key matchups.  With Stanford’s rise to the top of the standings comes extra motivation for opponents.   Expect USC and UCLA to bring their very best games to Maples on Friday and Sunday.

Having lost two #1-ranked high school recruits (Haley Jones and Lauren Betts) as well as Fran Belibi, Ashten Prechtel, Indya Nivar, and Agnes Emma Nnopu, there is no wonder that the media did not make Stanford the favorite for this season.  The three transferring players are starters for their new teams (Betts for UCLA, Emma-Nnopu for TCU, and Indya Nivar for North Carolina).

Stanford is exceeding preseason expectations for several reasons, mostly named Kiki Iriafen and Talana Lepolo.  Both players continue to improve as the season progresses. In the nine conference games played so far, Iriafen has assumed the role as the team’s highest scoring player, averaging 22.6 per game and shooting at a team-leading 52.6% clip.  She is tied with Brink in rebounding, averaging 12.4 per game.  And she’s converting 87.5% of her free throws.   A small part of Iriafen’s success can be attributed to being in the game while Cameron Brink is distracting defenses.  If you believe that Iriafen is leaning on Brink, however, consider the Oregon State game where Iriafen scored a career high 34 points while an injured Brink sat on the bench.

In the nine conference games, Lepolo has also moved beyond her earlier performances.  For the entire season, Lepolo’s three-point conversion rate is an excellent 42%.  But since conference games began, Lepolo has converted 17 of 30 three-point attempts for an amazing 56.7% rate.  Her assist to turnover rate is 2.77 for the entire season but is 3.06 in conference play. 

Iriafen and Lepolo are not the only players who have improved.  Coming off the bench, Jzaniya Harriel has made 9 of 16 three-point attempts (56.3 %) and substantially leads the team in steals per minute.  In the Arizona game, Chloe Clardy came off the bench for 21 minutes to score 6 points, get 4 assists and 2 steals to steady the team against Arizona’s aggressive and theft-oriented defense.  Brooke Demetre remains the first player off the bench and scores field goals at a 47.3% clip while maintaining an impressive 2 to 1 assist to turnover ratio.  Both Nunu Agara and Courtney Ogden continue to contribute, playing 10 plus minutes per game.

During all of this, Cameron Brink continues her leadership and statistical dominance in many areas.  Since the conference games began, Iriafen has scored more points than Brink (.74 points per minute compared to Brink’s .67 points per minute) and has a higher conversion precentage (52.6% versus Brink’s 47.9%).  But Brink continues to lead the team in other ways.  Brink is number one in free throws (93%) and in blocks (4 times as many blocks per minute as Iriafen).  In rebounds, Brink has .55 per minute compared to Iriafen’s .41 per minute.  And Brink gets more assists per minute (.099) than Iriafen (.067).

Together, Brink and Iriafen are a formidable duo.  Last weekend in games against the Arizona schools, they scored 53% of Stanford’s points and grabbed 60% of Stanford’s rebounds.  May that pattern continue.

What's Next: Thoughts on Tara VanDerveer's Coaching Strategies

 

Warren Grimes

En route to Coach VanDerveer’s record breaking total wins, Stanford dominated Oregon 88 to 63 and, playing without Cameron Brink, fought to a 65 to 56 victory over Oregon State.

Two players stood out in these victories.  Kiki Iriafen had a phenomenal weekend, scoring 21 points with 15 boards against Oregon and a career high 36 points with 12 rebounds against Oregon State.   To put things in perspective, Iriafen scored over 55% of the team’s points in the pivotal game against Oregon State.  She did that despite the absence of Brink, allowing both opponents to focus on defending Iriafen.    She did that despite being guarded by players who were as tall as or taller than she was.  She did that by converting many shots from the outside including her first two ever three-pointers against OSU. 

The second highest scorer in both games was Talana Lepolo, who averaged 13.5 for the two games.  Stanford’s point guard was 5 for 9 (55%) from distance and had 14 assists with an amazing 7 to 1 assist/turnover ratio.   

Both players did what was needed at critical points.  Other players stepped up as well, with Brooke Demetre starting her first game ever (against OSU) and contributing 10 points in each of the matchups.  Jzaniya Harriel came off the bench to score 2 three pointers against Oregon; against OSU, Harriel had 3 steals that took the wind out of OSU’s second-half attempted comeback.     

Coaches don’t play the game, but they deserve credit for teaching and motivating their players to perform at their best.  Tara VanDerveer has been doing that for almost half a century.  She started when she was 24 years old and, at 70, she’s still going strong.  Hard work, dedication, and love of her players are part of the formula. 

A coach’s record of past wins is, in some ways, an overrated statistic.  Van Derveer lives for the present and thinks of the future.  Dwelling on the past is a guaranteed pass to oblivion.  Fans and athletic administrators want performance now and, while respecting the past, won’t tolerate a coach who can’t bring the Ws.  The reason for VanDerveer’s impressive victory chain is that she is focused on the now.

No matter how talented a coach and how gifted the players, injuries occur.  Utah has learned that the hard way, losing three early season conference games after losing its best three-point shooter and, at least in the short term, its starting point guard.  The loss of Cameron Brink early in the Oregon game and for the entire OSU game could have changed results.  Other injuries are likely among the key Pac-12 teams and could affect who wins the conference. 

Coaches can’t stop injuries.  Coaches do have some control, however, over defensive strategies and physicality.  A team such as Colorado plays in-your-face defense and generates turnovers, often leading to uncontested lay ups.  Watching Colorado over the past decade, that team has a reputation for starting fast and strong but losing some of its momentum toward season’s end.  Will that be true this season?  Colorado’s Jaylyn Sherod had 4 steals in Colorado’s victory over Stanford, but her physicality probably does raise risks of injury to her and to opposing teams.  Will Sherod and her teammates be fit and motivated at season’s end?   

Injuries may be a wildcard in basketball, but a coach who emphasizes positional defense over in-your-face physicality may have a better chance of keeping players healthy over a long season. 

The hoopla over total coaching wins is over.  With some uncertainty over Brink’s return and the continued fitness of other players, Stanford’s quest for a conference title continues, one game at a time.

The Mountain Schools Road Trip: What Can Stanford Learn?

Warren Grimes

Stanford returned from what on paper should be its roughest road trip of the season with one victory and one loss. 

Stanford hung on to defeat Utah 66-64.  Utah was the preseason selection for #1 and is the best three-point shooting team in the conference.  Against Stanford, Utah played without its best three-point shooter and without its starting point guard.   Still, Utah made things tough, shooting 40.6% from distance.  The game was tied 7 times until Stanford took the lead in the second quarter.  Utah rallied in the fourth and the game went down to the wire.  Kiki Iriafen led Stanford with 25 points and 16 boards.

In Boulder, Stanford could not overcome Colorado’s aggressive focus and lost 71-59.  Particularly harmful was Colorado’s 22-11 third quarter point margin.  Colorado’s aggressive and physical defense disrupted the Stanford offense with 11 steals and 28 points off 18 Stanford turnovers.  Kiki Iriafen was once again Stanford’s leader with 19 points and 19 rebounds.  Stanford won the rebounding battle and shot 100% from the charity stripe, but too few fouls were called against Colorado’s physical defense. 

Colorado is now the only undefeated team in the conference, while Stanford, UCLA, and USC have one defeat each.  Utah, the preseason favorite, now has 3 losses and sits in sixth place behind Oregon State’s two losses.  Next weekend should be interesting with the LA schools visiting Colorado and Utah.  Colorado’s road to the championship remains a challenge, with 2 games each against UCLA and USC.

So what lessons can Stanford learn from the weekend? 

Let’s begin with Cameron Brink, who remains critical to the team’s offense and defense.  Brink got into first half foul trouble in both mountain games, playing just 27 minutes against Utah and 24 minutes against Colorado.  In four conference games, Brink is averaging just 24 minutes and 12.5 points.  Her fouling ways are not just due to defensive blocks – Brink has learned how to swat shots while minimizing physical contact.  Instead, in recent games, offensive fouls have put Brink on the bench.  Opponents have learned to step in front of Brink’s post moves, generating offensive fouls.  Against Utah, in a questionable call, Brink drew another offensive foul for setting up a screen.  With the proper focus, Brink’s first half game strategy should be able to minimize physical contact on offense, at least until the team has a sense of how the referees are calling the game.  Brink has fall back jumpers or other interior moves that are less likely to generate fouls.

Talana Lepolo, who had put up lots of points in earlier conference games, scored only 4 points against Utah and 2 points against Colorado.  On multiple occasions, Lepolo would dribble into the key, see a clogged middle, then dripple out again.  If Lepolo could make the pull up jumper part of her arsenal, she could score more points and perhaps unclog the middle for an assist to an interior player.

Turnovers in the back court are particularly harmful because they often generate uncontested layups by an opponent.  That happened too often against Colorado.  A pass to the interior may be stolen or go out of bounds but would be less likely to facilitate an opponent’s fast break offense.

Jzaniya Harriel has seen more minutes since the conference games began, and for good reason. In four conference games, she’s 5-8 (62.5%) from distance.  Harriel could be even more valuable if she demonstrates creativity off the dribble, perhaps a pull up jumper. 

Indeed, can anyone hit a pull up jumper?  This is one area in which Haley Jones is sorely missed.  Against a team like Colorado, a bit more creativity could enhance Stanford’s offense.  Iriafen’s fall back shots have become a critical part of the offense and explain why she has been the team’s leading scorer since conference play began.

The team will have extra motivation this weekend to put Coach VanDerveer atop the list of all-time winningest coaches.  But a steady focus will be required for every single upcoming conference game.  It’s going to be a brutal season with the conference winner likely, my hunch, to have 2 or more conference losses.