Stanford Finds Its March Offense: A Seven Player Juggernaught?

 

Warren Grimes

Last year, on Sunday, December 14, Stanford defeated California in its first conference game of the season.  Stanford was 9-2 overall.  Preseason predictions had Stanford finishing the season in 6^th place in the ACC.  That seemed an overly cautious prediction given Stanford’s recruiting class that included three high school All Americans.  An NCAA tournament birth seemed assured.  The freshmen, two of whom had started all 11 games, seemed destined to get even better.

If someone had told me then that Stanford would finish the conference season in 13^th place, I would have been quite disappointed – and a bit incredulous. 

There’s another side to this story.  If, on December 14, I had settled down for a long Winter’s nap – I mean a Rip Van Winkle-type nap that lasted for weeks – only to wake up at Maples in time to see the March 1 game against Clemson, I would have slept through all of the Sturm and Drang of the mid-conference season.  Watching the Clemson game, I would have thought, just as predicted, that Stanford had become an elite, top-ten team.   Stanford methodically dismembered Clemson, winning by 35 points and racking up 87 points against a team that had held opponents to an average of 58 points per game.    

If someone next to me told me that in the previous game, Stanford had bested SMU by 30 points, I would have nodded and said to myself, “Yup, just as expected.”  If the same person happened to mention that freshman Lara Somfai had four times been selected for conference freshman of the week, my thought would have been “yes, that’s not surprising.”

Of course, once I had fully awakened from my Rip Van Winkle-sleep, I would have realized that the journey to the last two games was vastly different, and much more of a Cinderella story.  Stanford, after losing Nunu Agara and Talana Lepolo to injury, had lost 8 of the last 9 conference games before winning the last three.  Stanford had finished with an overall losing record in the ACC (8-10).

Stanford found its offensive rhythm in the final conference games thanks to a seven-player rotation that included its three top scoring juniors (Agara, Chloe Clardy, and Courtney Ogden) and the team’s next three highest scorers (freshmen All-Americans Lara Somfai, Hailey Swain, and Alexandra Eschmeyer) plus sophomore Shay Ijiwoye.   Crisp interior passing and lots of movement led to many uncontested layups.  That’s Stanford’s March basketball pedigree.  A notable change for the last three games was Ijiwoye’s insertion into the starting lineup as the point guard.  Against Clemson, Ijiwoye had only 4 points, but garnished that with 4 boards, 5 assists and a steal against only 2 turnovers.  Another positive was Hailey Swain's 20 points, the most a freshman had scored this season.

All of this looks good for the ACC tournament.  To be a true Cinderella story, Stanford has to get to the Big Dance.  You can’t lose your glass slipper unless you go to the dance.  

Preview of the Miami and Florida State teams

Miami is the higher ranked team but both teams have similar ACC records.  With Nunu in the rotation we have a much better chance of winning these two road games.  Miami has played FSU twice and they each won at home.  The condensed game highlights from the game played in Miami is included below.

Feb 18 at 5 pm PST vs Miami

Miami Website

Miami is 13-12 and 5-9 in league play. Their net ranking is #56 vs Stanford at #43.

Ra Shaya Kyle, 6-6 Grad Student Center,  is averaging 16 points and 10 rebounds.

Gal Raviv, 5-9 Soph Guard,  is averaging 13 ppg. 

Amarachi Kimpson, 5-8 Jr Guard,  is averaging 12 ppg.

Miami shoots 30% from three. 

10:56 Condensed Game in Jan - Miami 89 FSU 73 at Miami

For Miami, Ra Shaya Kyle scored a career-high 30 points to go with 10 rebounds. Gal Raviv finished the game with 13 points, nine assists, and two rebounds. Amarachi Kimpson made four three-pointers and scored 17 points. For Florida State, Sole Williams had 19 points, four rebounds, three assists, and a steal.

 

Feb 22 at 11 am PST vs Florida State.  

FSU Website

Florida State is 9-17 and 4-10 in league play.  Their net ranking is #108.

Sole Williams is, 5-9 Jr Guard, is averaging 15 ppg. 

Jasmine Shavers, 5-8 Sr Guard, is averaging 12 ppg.  

8 of the 10 players are transfers. 

Amaya Bonner transferred from Cal and is averaging 6 ppg. 

Nunu brings energy and drive – and Stanford suffers tough Loss

 

Warren Grimes

In late January, Nunu Agara went out with her injury late in the Cal game and missed the next five games. Without Agara, Stanford rotated just 7 players and went 1-4.  Pittsburgh was the only W.  Making the Big Dance seemed a foregone conclusion before Agara went out.  Now, even with Agara back, it seems doubtful.

Agara came back for the Virginia game and played with energy and intensity.  It wasn’t enough.  It was a one possession game at the end.   But Stanford’s late fourth-quarter scoring draught sealed the team’s fate.

There were some things to like about the Virginia game.  The return of Agara is at the top of the list.  She scored 21 points while playing for 38 minutes.

Hailey Swain had a great all-around game with a team-leading 6 boards, 5 steals, and 13 points.  The steals stand out – more of those could contribute to a strong season’s end.

Ogden (10 points) and Clardy (12 points) were also in double digits.

The Stanford team, which seemed to have lots of depth at season’s outset, no longer does.  Stanford played four players for 31 minutes or more, with Agara, Swain, and Clardy all playing 35 or more.  Compare that to Virginia, which had only one player on the floor for more than 25 minutes (Kymora Johnson played for 37 and was Virginia’s top scorer).  Virginia had 36 points from the bench, compared to Stanford’s 6. 

The lack of depth was more of a factor because of Lara Somfai’s foul difficulties.  She had her first foul with just over 2 minutes gone in the first quarter.  She sat down, then came back in the second quarter only to draw her second.  Coming back at the end of the second quarter, she drew her third.  These issues might not matter except that Stanford really needs Somfai in the game.  Somfai is a strong candidate for conference rookie of the year, for good reason.  She managed to play for 25 minutes, but one wonders whether her contribution in the fourth quarter was constrained by the four fouls hanging around her neck.  Virginia, a physical team, outrebounded Stanford 37 to 27, a stat that might have looked different if Somfai had been in the game for more minutes.

Stanford shot under 20% from distance, another reason the team came up short. 

So what is the prognosis for the rest of the season?  I can’t comfortably predict an NCAA bid, but I very much want this team to show its best side in the next three weeks.  The team is hard-working, seems to have good chemistry, and is capable of winning its last four conference games.  Add one or two wins in the ACC tournament and you have an almost  Cinderella ending to a tough season. 

After Four Losses, What Will February Bring?

 

Warren Grimes

Stanford has lost four in a row, including the last two at Maples.  Fans may understandably ask, is this just a repeat of last year?   

Last season, Stanford began with a winning record, then hit the down button once the conference season began.  

Last season, Stanford was struggling in ACC competion, then, in mid-season, lost Nunu Agara, the top scorer and rebounder.

Last season, Stanford struggled in frustration against the ACC’s top teams.

Not much difference this year.

Well, there are some differences.  For one, this season, Stanford beat North Carolina in overtime, on the road.

This season, Stanford has started two freshmen from the get-go, and, in the last two games, has had three freshmen starters.  All three are on an improvement curve and are likely, barring injury, to play their best basketball in February.  Lara Somfai has struggled in her last two outings, but she is still a candidate for conference freshman of the year.

Call them explanations or excuses, but all four losses were against very good teams.  Louisville was #1 in the conference and #7 in the national poll.  Stanford played the last two games with a 7-player rotation (Haley Swain played 40 minutes in the last game). The game against Hidalgo & Friends (aka Notre Dame) featured a 37-point performance for Hidalgo (47% of the team’s points).  The Irish also had a seven-player rotation, but Hidalgo’s presence was like an extra player on the floor. 

How much were the last three games affected by Nunu Agara’s absence?  There’s no point in sugarcoating it: Agara has been a critical player for Stanford.  She tops the list in points and offensive boards.  When she is in lineup, opposing coaches must plan their defense to hold Agara in check.  That gives other players, including Somfai and Eschmeyer, more options to score.   It was no accident that, playing without Agara, Stanford got out-boarded by both Louisville and Notre Dame. 

Not knowing Agara’s status, what will Stanford do in February with its seven-player rotation, starting Eschmeyer in place of Agara and Clardy in place of Lepolo?   Stanford still has options.  Various players stepped up in all three of the Bay Area losses.   All three of the freshmen scored double digits against Cal (Somfai 16, Eschmeyer 16, and Swain 10).  Somfai’s last second three-pointer took the game into overtime.  Eschmeyer, coming off the bench, had a career-high 16 points and 7 boards.  Against Notre Dame, she had a similar line. 

Agara’s junior classmates have continued to contribute, with Ogden offering 23 points and 10 boards against Notre Dame.  Ogden had 16 points against Louisville.  Clardy is always there, averaging 15.3 points in the last three games.

Replacing Lepolo is a challenge because of her steady leadership and defense, but Swain and Ijiwoye have stepped up.  Swaine has been in double figures each of the last three games, averaging 10.3 points.  Ijiwoye had 15 points against Louisville. 

So, Agara’s return would be a major plus, but Stanford in February will learn to adjust and be competitive in all its games, with (at least) seven players fighting to make it a winning month.  

The Coach as a Cheer Leader – How to Respond to Tough Losses

 

Warren Grimes

I’m a career teacher.  I’ve learned that enthusiasm is a key to good teaching.   If I announce that today’s class will be a yawner, students won’t be optimal learners.  Being a cheer leader is even more important for a coach.  Win or lose, staying optimistic and focused is vital if the coach hopes to motivate players to continue to work hard and develop their skills. 

In the past two weekends, Stanford split games, winning two against relatively weak opponents, and losing two hard-fought games against more elite teams.  The losses came against Duke (home) and Syracuse (away).  Both losses were deflating, in part because anyone watching those games could see the intensity of Stanford players.  That was evident, for example, in the rebounding statistics.  Stanford outboarded Duke 43-37 and had a 40-32 advantage against Syracuse.  Stanford players played with heart and focus and still came up short.

So what does a coach say to her team after difficult losses?  Anyone who has watched a losing coach’s press conference knows the drill.  The coach talks about what players can learn from the game and how to improve for the next one.   The goal is always to get the team to peak by season’s end. 

So is this Stanford team getting better?   There are obvious signs that it is.  Take rebounding.  Stanford continues to win rebounding battles, but with a difference.  Coming off the bench, Alexandra Eschmeyer had 11 boards against Wake Forest and 6 against Duke.  And the guards are seizing opportunities to grab loose balls while the bigs are blocking one another out.  Shay Ijiwoye has darted in from the perimeter to grab 5 boards against both Wake Forest and Boston College.  Chloe Clardy had 4 boards each against Duke and Syracuse.

Another example of improvement is Lara Somfai.  She had an off game against Duke, shooting 1 for 9 and playing less than 17 minutes.  Perhaps learning to take what the defense gives you, Somfai scored a team-high 17 points against Syracuse.  If the Syracuse defense is focusing on Nunu Agara, take advantage.  Somfai did exactly that.

Freshmen, with more to learn, generally have the fastest learning curve.  Hailee Swain had 15 points, 7 boards, 2 steals and an assist against Boston College.  The coaches deservedly gave her the most minutes of any player.  The next game against Syracuse was not so good – 0/6 shooting and 1 rebound in 22 minutes.  Swain will learn from these back-to-back experiences.  Her evolution will be critical for Stanford’s late season performance.

Alexandra Eschmeyer is still up and down as a freshman performer, but she too is showing signs of being a force.   Against Duke, she played 28 minutes, scored 10 points, had 6 rebounds, and is credited with 5 solo or assisted blocks. 

Meanwhile, the trio of juniors, Nunu Agara, Chloe Clardy, and Courtney Ogden, now occupy the top three spots in season scoring.  To make the offense more potent, each of those three and other players, including the three top-ranked freshmen, must learn how to seamlessly and quickly take what the defense is giving.  A lot of teams have followed NC State in clogging the middle.  Syracuse did that and occasionally used a zone.  By season’s end, the team needs to respond to defensive strategies quickly and without a word spoken.

Stanford now stays in the Bay Area for a road game against Cal and two tough at home matchups against Louisville and Notre Dame.  Here’s to continued improvement and some wins!

Blow-Out Loss -- Then the Best Win of the Season: Stanford in North Carolina

 

Warren Grimes

Coach Paye tells us she really likes this team.  A lot of coaches say that, but some really mean it.  After the bounce-back weekend for this Stanford team, of course Paye means it.  The thing about liking your team is that it’s a mutual kind of thing.  If a coach likes her team, it’s going to be reciprocal.  This Stanford team plays hard for themselves and their coach because the environment is one of mutual respect and appreciation. 

The North Carolina road trip began with a major slap-down, a 74 to 46 loss against NC State.  It was a cold shooting night for Stanford – just 30% overall with 15 straight misses in the second half.  Against a sagging NC State defense, three-point shooting would have been a remedy.  From distance, however, the team converted just 17% of its 23 attempts.   Stanford was decisively out boarded and had only 7 points from the bench.  One reason for that was the absence of Chloe Clardy on concussion protocol.

While the NC State game was being played, Clardy was on a plane to North Carolina to rejoin the team.  Her return was a good sign, and Stanford showed up ready to play on Sunday.  The North Carolina Tarheels did not sag on defense, creating a markedly different challenge.  While Stanford trailed for most of this game, they fought throughout and never trailed by more than 7 points.   They won the fourth quarter, and had a shot at winning in regulation (Clardy missed a last second contested layup). 

In overtime, playing without Nunu Agara, they got the edge and then converted free throws to seal a 77-72 victory.  Agara had foul trouble, was limited to 6 points and 4 boards, and played only 18 minutes.  The win was genuinely a team win, with 9 players playing meaningful minutes.  Ogden had a team high 21 and made lots of critical shots in the fourth quarter and overtime.  Somfai had 13 points and 8 boards.  The third and fourth highest scorers came from the bench – Clardy had 12 points (and a team high 9 boards) while Alex Eschmeyer added 10 points in just under 8 minutes.  Her role was pivotal with Agara on the bench in most of the fourth quarter and overtime.  Overall, the team shot 45% and 35% from distance.  Stanford guards had 18 of the team’s 40 rebounds.  That had to be more than an accident -- the coaches gave the guards a green light to find the gaps between bigs busy blocking one another out.  What a difference from NC State.

Yes, this was a big win, on the road against the 17^th ranked team in the nation.  It was a depressing loss for former Stanford player, point guard Indya Nivar, who led the Tarheels with 3 assists and 4 steals.  North Carolina had leads of 7 points several times and led for almost 34 minutes of this game.  In the fourth quarter and overtime, they could not match Stanford’s intensity and team chemistry.

In a tie game that goes to overtime, every play by every player can be pivotal.  A fair account of this win, however, is not complete without mention of Shay “The Disruptor” Ijiwoye.  She had a very positive stat line: 5 boards, 4 points, 1 assist and 1 steal.  The 5 boards are impressive for the smallest player on the team, but stats don’t tell the full story for this player because her disruptive role often doesn’t show in statistics.   My favorite play?  Late in overtime, Ijiwoye came storming in from the perimeter to grab an offensive board from the bigs on both teams, put up and missed a follow-up shot, then grabbed her own board only to be double-teamed by Carolina players.  She fought off both, barely managed to get the ball to Talana Lepolo, who fed Ogden on the perimeter.  At this point, Carolina defenders were distracted.  Ogden had an open lane for a left-handed layup, giving Stanford a four-point lead that the team padded with last-minute free throw conversions.  That was it.

Yes, Ijiwoye is just one of the nine players who made a difference in this upset win.  But Shay is quick, strong, has hops, and, most of all, non-stop intensity.  She's an important part of Stanford chemistry that makes this team a contender.