New Season Optimism: How Much?

Warren Grimes

Best Year Ever!

That’s the slogan for this year’s Stanford women’s basketball team in the final year of Pac-12 play.

Can that happen?  Here are two takes on the prospects for this year’s team.  The first lists some reasons why optimism should be guarded.   The second examines why the team could substantially outperform its preseason ranking of 15 (AP poll).

Reasons for Guarded Optimism

Stanford has lost versatile All-American Haley Jones.   A point forward who could lead the fast break, Jones led the team in assists and steals; she was a close second to Cameron Brink in points and rebounds.  She was a go-to player able to create her own shot in a crowded interior.. 

Jones was one of two #1 ranked high school recruits that left the team.  The other was promising post Lauren Betts, who transferred to UCLA.  Another transfer loss was Indya Nivar, an athletic and versatile guard who left to play at North Carolina.

The loss of Betts, Ashten Prechtel and Jones means Stanford has lost depth and rebounding in the post positions.  Once the conference’s leader in post depth, Stanford is now a bit thin in these positions.

Meanwhile, the road to a conference championship is as difficult as it’s ever been.  The conference’s top five rivals for Stanford have maintained a solid roster or even improved (UCLA being a primary example).  UCLA and Utah are ranked #4 and #5 in the preseason AP poll and three more Pac-12 teams are ranked behind Stanford in the top 25 (Colorado, USC and WSU).  Arizona, Oregon, and Washington also received votes.

Reasons Stanford May Exceed Expectations

Stanford brings back four of its five starters from last year.  Those four, and other veterans, will be better, more experienced players. Cameron Brink and Kiki Iriafen are probably the best four-five combination in the conference.  Brink is a candidate for the Naismith award.  Iriafen is an improving strong and athletic post player with solid moves and rebounding skills.  In addition, Hanna Jump, who has improved every year, will be back as a three-point shooting guard as good as any in the conference. 

Talana Lepola also returns as the team’s starting guard with a good handle and an excellent 2:1 assist/turnover ratio.  Lepola can increase the team's offensive diversity if she asserts herself from the three-point line. 

To replace Jones, there are several prospects, including veteran Elena Boscana.  Last year, Boscana shot at a 44% clip overall and 32% from distance.   Her defense is improving, and she can create shots.  Against Dominican, Boscana started and scored 19 points, including 2-4 from distance.  Three-point shooting is a skill that Jones did not demonstrate in her last year at Stanford.  If Jones’ replacement is a three-point threat, this could help open up the inside.    

Last season, Brooke Demetre had more minutes off the bench than any other Stanford player.  Demetre may or may not start, but she is destined again for major minutes.  She is steady, with 2:1 assist-turnover ratio, and can shoot from the outside (33% last year).  Against Dominican, Demetre had an off night shooting but pulled down 12 boards in 21 minutes on the floor.  Expect Demetre to be playing the post positions much more than last year when she was used mostly on the perimeter.  A post player who can shoot from the outside is always a major plus. 

In conference play, Stanford could also benefit from scheduling.  This season, Stanford plays only a single game against four of its top-five ranked opponents.  Stanford has only one home game each against UCLA and USC and only one away game each against Utah and Colorado.

The Role of the Three Freshmen

Its risky to draw too many conclusions from the exhibition game against overmatched Dominican, but the 126 point-performance is a positive.  With Elena Boscana in the starting lineup along with last year’s starters, that group scored 66 points while averaging just over 16 minutes each on the floor.  The group was scoring at .80 points per player per minute.  Not to be forgotten, Stanford’s three freshmen (Nuna Agara, Courtney Ogden, and Chloe Clardy) came off the bench for an average of just over 17 minutes each and contributed 40 points (or .78 points per player per minute).   That's exciting.  The full  story of these freshmen has yet to be written, but all seem destined for major minutes.  Ogden added 10 boards and 2 assists to her 16-point total, all in just 14 minutes on the floor.  Ogden’s ability to score inside and out while rebounding well makes her another promising replacement for Haley Jones. 

We will know more in two weeks, after four more games in a two week period, including one against higher ranked Indiana and another against highly respected Duke.

I'm excited.