The Mountain Schools Road Trip: What Can Stanford Learn?

Warren Grimes

Stanford returned from what on paper should be its roughest road trip of the season with one victory and one loss. 

Stanford hung on to defeat Utah 66-64.  Utah was the preseason selection for #1 and is the best three-point shooting team in the conference.  Against Stanford, Utah played without its best three-point shooter and without its starting point guard.   Still, Utah made things tough, shooting 40.6% from distance.  The game was tied 7 times until Stanford took the lead in the second quarter.  Utah rallied in the fourth and the game went down to the wire.  Kiki Iriafen led Stanford with 25 points and 16 boards.

In Boulder, Stanford could not overcome Colorado’s aggressive focus and lost 71-59.  Particularly harmful was Colorado’s 22-11 third quarter point margin.  Colorado’s aggressive and physical defense disrupted the Stanford offense with 11 steals and 28 points off 18 Stanford turnovers.  Kiki Iriafen was once again Stanford’s leader with 19 points and 19 rebounds.  Stanford won the rebounding battle and shot 100% from the charity stripe, but too few fouls were called against Colorado’s physical defense. 

Colorado is now the only undefeated team in the conference, while Stanford, UCLA, and USC have one defeat each.  Utah, the preseason favorite, now has 3 losses and sits in sixth place behind Oregon State’s two losses.  Next weekend should be interesting with the LA schools visiting Colorado and Utah.  Colorado’s road to the championship remains a challenge, with 2 games each against UCLA and USC.

So what lessons can Stanford learn from the weekend? 

Let’s begin with Cameron Brink, who remains critical to the team’s offense and defense.  Brink got into first half foul trouble in both mountain games, playing just 27 minutes against Utah and 24 minutes against Colorado.  In four conference games, Brink is averaging just 24 minutes and 12.5 points.  Her fouling ways are not just due to defensive blocks – Brink has learned how to swat shots while minimizing physical contact.  Instead, in recent games, offensive fouls have put Brink on the bench.  Opponents have learned to step in front of Brink’s post moves, generating offensive fouls.  Against Utah, in a questionable call, Brink drew another offensive foul for setting up a screen.  With the proper focus, Brink’s first half game strategy should be able to minimize physical contact on offense, at least until the team has a sense of how the referees are calling the game.  Brink has fall back jumpers or other interior moves that are less likely to generate fouls.

Talana Lepolo, who had put up lots of points in earlier conference games, scored only 4 points against Utah and 2 points against Colorado.  On multiple occasions, Lepolo would dribble into the key, see a clogged middle, then dripple out again.  If Lepolo could make the pull up jumper part of her arsenal, she could score more points and perhaps unclog the middle for an assist to an interior player.

Turnovers in the back court are particularly harmful because they often generate uncontested layups by an opponent.  That happened too often against Colorado.  A pass to the interior may be stolen or go out of bounds but would be less likely to facilitate an opponent’s fast break offense.

Jzaniya Harriel has seen more minutes since the conference games began, and for good reason. In four conference games, she’s 5-8 (62.5%) from distance.  Harriel could be even more valuable if she demonstrates creativity off the dribble, perhaps a pull up jumper. 

Indeed, can anyone hit a pull up jumper?  This is one area in which Haley Jones is sorely missed.  Against a team like Colorado, a bit more creativity could enhance Stanford’s offense.  Iriafen’s fall back shots have become a critical part of the offense and explain why she has been the team’s leading scorer since conference play began.

The team will have extra motivation this weekend to put Coach VanDerveer atop the list of all-time winningest coaches.  But a steady focus will be required for every single upcoming conference game.  It’s going to be a brutal season with the conference winner likely, my hunch, to have 2 or more conference losses.

Little Things from a Deep Roster – A Winning Formula

Opposing coaches know about Stanford’s top three scorers: Cameron Brink, Kiki Iriafen and Hannah Jump.  If these are the only defensive challenges that Stanford poses, Stanford could still win against lesser opponents, but it would lose many a game against top-ranked opponents.  When Brink and/or Iriafen are on the bench, someone else must step up to provide the points.  And Stanford’s defense loses a great deal.  Indeed, the lack of credible interior defense played a role in the loss to Gonzaga when Brink and Iriafen played only a combined 35 minutes.  

 

The loss against Gonzaga and the win against Cal presents an interesting contrast.  In both road games, Stanford scored 78 points, losing to Gonzaga by 18 points and defeating Cal by 27 points.  The defensive difference is striking.  Gonzaga managed 98 points against Stanford, almost twice Cal’s 51 points.  To be sure, Gonzaga’s offensive potential was doubtless greater (Gonzaga shot three balls at a 41.7% clip while Cal was a miserable 12.9% from distance).  Still, Stanford’ perimeter defense is better when Brink and/or Iriafen can guard the interior.   For more than half of the 80 minutes against Cal, Brink, Iriafen, or both were in the game.

 

On offense, Stanford must threaten with a more diversified scoring.  To achieve this, starters such as Elena Boscana and Talana Lepolo must command the defense’s attention.  Players off the bench such as Brooke Demetre, Nunu Agara, Courtney Ogden, Jzaniya Harriel, and Chloe Clardy must be offensive threats.

Below, I take a look at each of these seven players who can make a difference, each of them averaging 12 minutes or more per game.  I begin with the two starters, Lepolo and Boscana.

 

Talana Lepolo is averaging 25.6 minutes per game, second only to Hannah Jump’s 31.8 minutes.  She leads the team in assists with a commendable 2.26 assist to turnover ratio.  With a modest 5.3 points per game, she is only the team’s seventh highest scoring player despite her many minutes.    

But consider this.  Lepolo scored a team and career high 20 points against Cal, going 6 for 10 from the three-point line.  In the previous game against UC Davis, Lepolo made both of her three-point shots.  When left unguarded on the perimeter, it is critical that Lepolo make the opponent pay – and she did exactly that against Cal.  If opponents continue to pack the interior, Lepolo will get lots more chances.

 

Elena Boscana is fearless in driving the basket or in taking the outside shot.  She is just below 30% from the three-point line.  She is a much-improved rebounder, averaging 5.7 boards per game.   She gets assists on offense and steals on defense.  Boscana is a substantial contributor to the offensive and defensive balance that the team needs.

 

Nunu Agara is one of the first players off the bench and rightly so.  She is the team’s number four scorer (8.8 points per game).  She drives the basket strongly and creatively and draws fouls (second only to Brink in foul shot attempts).  At the line, she is 92.5%, second only to Brink’s 94.4%.  The two players’ combination of drawing the fouls and converting the shots makes Stanford the top foul-shooting team in the conference.  Agara also battles inside and averages 4.1 boards per game.

 

Brooke Demetre gets more minutes than any other bench player and averages more minutes than Boscana.  She is an interior player with a shooter’s touch, averaging 32.4% from distance.  Against Cal, she drained a three from the parking lot in the last seconds of the first quarter.  She is an assist leader and an improving rebounder as she has moved to playing post positions.  She needs to continue to shoot from inside and out.

 

Courtney Ogden is the team’s top-ranked freshman recruit and showing it with a 33% three-point shooting rate.  She is a team player and contributes assists on offense and steals on defense.  She made  13 points in the Gonzaga loss.   After missing two recent games (injury related), Ogden is on a track to success.

  

Jzaniya Harriel also missed two recent games but has shown a shooter’s touch from the distance (38.7%) and a defensive mindset, leading the team with 10 steals while averaging only 12.6 minutes per game.  She has demonstrated her value on court.

 

Chloe Clardy is the last of the three promising freshman.  Her outside shooting could improve, but Clardy does not hesitate to drive the basket.  Her quickness on both ends of the court is an asset, with 17 assists and 16 defensive boards. 

 

One or more of these seven players could make Stanford’s season.

After Gonzaga - What Next?

 

Evening talk-show host Jimmy Kimmel has repeatedly joked that Gonzaga doesn’t exist.  The Stanford women’s basketball team knows better. 

With a commanding physical presence, the Zags decisively bested then number 3 Stanford 96-78 on an early December Sunday afternoon.  When was the last time anyone scored 96 points against Stanford?  When was the last time anyone scored 32 points on Stanford in a single quarter?

The Zags did both of those things, adding 44 points in the paint (compared to Stanford’s 34) and an overall 31-29 rebounding advantage.  Gonzaga used motivation, sound preparation, and talent to play its best game of the season.

Stanford now goes on a break to focus on final exams, with its next games at home against Portland and UC Davis before the Christmas holiday.  In the meantime, the team must take what it can from this loss and regroup for the conference season.

Maybe it won’t take that much.  There were extenuating circumstances associated with the loss to Gonzaga.  Cameron Brink was ill and played only 11 minutes.  Her post mate Kiki Iriafen got in foul trouble and played only 24 minutes.  Iriafen picked up her fourth foul early in the third quarter and had to watch from the bench as the Zags outscored Stanford 32-16 in that quarter.  With the Zags holding a 20-point lead, Iriafen returned to play most of the fourth quarter but the team could reduce the margin by only 2 points.

Viewing the contest on video, my impression was that Stanford’s defensive game plan fell apart in the third quarter.  With both Brink and Iriafen out, the Zags started getting productive in the interior.  Stanford tried to bolster interior defense but, in the process, left more three-point shooters open (the Zags were deadly from inside (62%) and outside (56%) during their third quarter blitz.  If one leaves out the third quarter, the game was closely contested and could have been won by either team.

So what’s to be done about the defensive collapse?  Iriafen has run into foul trouble twice in recent games and should learn from this game the importance of staying on the floor.  Still, during a long season, there are sure to be other games in which both Brink and Iriafen have to sit for more than a few minutes.   Their substitutes, primarily Brooke Demetre and Nunu Agara, have to learn what they can about defending against strong post players.  Rebounding from these subs could also improve.  The team should prepare for a help defense that still leaves the opponent’s primary three-point shooters closely guarded. 

Stanford’s offensive performance showed promise even with Brink (and often Iriafen) not on the floor.  The three top scorers (each with 13 points) were Hannah Jump and freshmen Nunu Agara and Courtney Ogden.  Ogden was 3-6 from distance.  Brooke Demetre was 2-3.  Stanford shot threes at a 45% clip, adding 27 points to its 78-point total.  In the interior, Stanford suffered on the boards and clearly missed the scoring dominance that Brink and Iriafen typically bring.  The team’s two other shortcomings were the 53% shooting from the foul line and the 16 turnovers (the Zags had only 7).

Leaving aside neutral court games, Stanford is 1 for 2 in away games.  The road percentage must improve if Stanford is to contest the conference championship.  Despite the disappointing loss to Gonzaga, Stanford still has the talent, chemistry and motivation to win every game it plays and contest for the conference championship.    

A Great Team in the Making? Chemistry and Intensity

 

  Warren Grimes

After scoring a mere 87 points against unranked Hawaii, Stanford put up 96 against 9^th ranked Indiana.  Indiana coach Teri Moren described Stanford as “terrific.”  Maybe she was right. 

Indiana met Stanford at Maples on a Sunday mid-November afternoon.  Stanford looked like a formidable final four team.  Indiana scored 64 points but trailed massively early on, with Stanford holding a 54-26 lead at the end of the first half.  The final margin of victory was 32 points.

Indiana is a very good team, likely to compete for a big-10 championship, but Stanford brought intensive defense and unselfish inside-outside play on offense that the Hoosiers could not match.  Is Stanford better than last year?  A bit early to say, but things are looking pretty good.

The loss of All American Haley Jones was big, but that loss is being offset.  This year’s team brings an intangible team chemistry, led by leaders like Cameron Brink.   Brink, and others, bring experience, intensity, and unselfish team play.  In addition to chemistry, there are at least two other notable strengths to this team that contribute to its inside-outside dominance.  First, the returning veterans are improved.  Second, the three freshmen, led by Nunu Agara, are impressive. 

Kiki Iriafen’s improvement, while perhaps expected, is noteworthy.  Last year, Iriafen averaged 6.7 points and 3.8 boards per game.  This year, after two games, the average is 21.5 points and 12 boards.  Last year, Iriafen shared a lot of minutes with Lauren Betts, but the combined total of those two players was 12 points and 7.3 boards.  I expect Iriafen’s totals will moderate as the season progresses, but she is now a part of the best post duo in the conference.  I expect double-doubles will be frequent in Iriafen’s junior season.

The other half of that duo is All American Cameron Brink.  Brink has benefitted from playing 3 on 3 basketball over the past Summer.  Her post moves are quicker than ever, and she has hit 2 of her 4 three-point attempts so far.  She leads the team in boards with 12.5 per game despite playing an average of just 22.5 minutes so far.  Against Indiana, she had 20 points, 17 boards, and 4 blocks (2 against Indiana’s All American center Mackenzie Holmes).  Stretching back to last season, Brink has made over 50 consecutive free throws, and she gets lots of opportunities.

Other starters are also showing improvement.   Fifth year senior Hannah Jump leads the team in minutes played and has converted three-point shots at a 50% rate.  She seems more active in give and go moves, scoring six of her nine baskets inside the three-point line.  Elena Bosgana has started two games and is averaging 10 points per game on a combination of threes and interior moves.

Starting point guard Talana Lepolo continues with major minutes as a ball handler (and swishing 2 of 3 three-point attempts against Indiana).

I’ve not mentioned Brooke Demetre, who once again with her steadiness and outside shooting may lead the team in minutes off the bench.  She can help out in the post positions, as she did late-game against Indiana.

Jzaniya Harriel is a veteran guard also likely to get more minutes this season.  Harriel is averaging 15 minutes and 3 points per game so far. 

Now let’s talk about the freshmen, starting with Nunu Agara.  The preseason hype on 6’2” Agara was that she could play the shooting guard position well and help elsewhere.  That was an understatement, particularly with respect to her inside game.  So far, Agara is averaging 15.5 points (second highest on the team) and 5 boards in an average of just 18 minutes per game.  Wow!  Agara turns out to be quick, strong, and creative on the inside.  She can also shoot from distance (1 for 2 so far).  Although not the highest ranked of the three incoming freshmen (Agara was ranked no. 37 by ESPN Hoopgurlz), she may get more minutes (and a starting assignment) more quickly than her classmates.  Her teammate Cameron Brink says Agara can play any of the 1-5 positions.

Courtney Ogden, ranked no. 10 by Hoopgurlz, is a shooter, but at 6’1” also someone who can battle inside. Ogden is averaging 13 minutes and 3.5 points.  I see an upward curve for Ogden as she adjusts to the faster collegiate game. 

Chloe Clardy, a guard ranked no. 39 by Hoopgurlz, has a great handle and three-point shooting skills, also averaging 3.5 points in just under 13 minutes.  She can play the point and shoot the three (3-8).  Her future looks bright.

The chemistry seems exceptional.  The players play with intensity and support for one another.  The future looks bright for a team that has superior inside-outside potential.   

New Season Optimism: How Much?

Warren Grimes

Best Year Ever!

That’s the slogan for this year’s Stanford women’s basketball team in the final year of Pac-12 play.

Can that happen?  Here are two takes on the prospects for this year’s team.  The first lists some reasons why optimism should be guarded.   The second examines why the team could substantially outperform its preseason ranking of 15 (AP poll).

Reasons for Guarded Optimism

Stanford has lost versatile All-American Haley Jones.   A point forward who could lead the fast break, Jones led the team in assists and steals; she was a close second to Cameron Brink in points and rebounds.  She was a go-to player able to create her own shot in a crowded interior.. 

Jones was one of two #1 ranked high school recruits that left the team.  The other was promising post Lauren Betts, who transferred to UCLA.  Another transfer loss was Indya Nivar, an athletic and versatile guard who left to play at North Carolina.

The loss of Betts, Ashten Prechtel and Jones means Stanford has lost depth and rebounding in the post positions.  Once the conference’s leader in post depth, Stanford is now a bit thin in these positions.

Meanwhile, the road to a conference championship is as difficult as it’s ever been.  The conference’s top five rivals for Stanford have maintained a solid roster or even improved (UCLA being a primary example).  UCLA and Utah are ranked #4 and #5 in the preseason AP poll and three more Pac-12 teams are ranked behind Stanford in the top 25 (Colorado, USC and WSU).  Arizona, Oregon, and Washington also received votes.

Reasons Stanford May Exceed Expectations

Stanford brings back four of its five starters from last year.  Those four, and other veterans, will be better, more experienced players. Cameron Brink and Kiki Iriafen are probably the best four-five combination in the conference.  Brink is a candidate for the Naismith award.  Iriafen is an improving strong and athletic post player with solid moves and rebounding skills.  In addition, Hanna Jump, who has improved every year, will be back as a three-point shooting guard as good as any in the conference. 

Talana Lepola also returns as the team’s starting guard with a good handle and an excellent 2:1 assist/turnover ratio.  Lepola can increase the team's offensive diversity if she asserts herself from the three-point line. 

To replace Jones, there are several prospects, including veteran Elena Boscana.  Last year, Boscana shot at a 44% clip overall and 32% from distance.   Her defense is improving, and she can create shots.  Against Dominican, Boscana started and scored 19 points, including 2-4 from distance.  Three-point shooting is a skill that Jones did not demonstrate in her last year at Stanford.  If Jones’ replacement is a three-point threat, this could help open up the inside.    

Last season, Brooke Demetre had more minutes off the bench than any other Stanford player.  Demetre may or may not start, but she is destined again for major minutes.  She is steady, with 2:1 assist-turnover ratio, and can shoot from the outside (33% last year).  Against Dominican, Demetre had an off night shooting but pulled down 12 boards in 21 minutes on the floor.  Expect Demetre to be playing the post positions much more than last year when she was used mostly on the perimeter.  A post player who can shoot from the outside is always a major plus. 

In conference play, Stanford could also benefit from scheduling.  This season, Stanford plays only a single game against four of its top-five ranked opponents.  Stanford has only one home game each against UCLA and USC and only one away game each against Utah and Colorado.

The Role of the Three Freshmen

Its risky to draw too many conclusions from the exhibition game against overmatched Dominican, but the 126 point-performance is a positive.  With Elena Boscana in the starting lineup along with last year’s starters, that group scored 66 points while averaging just over 16 minutes each on the floor.  The group was scoring at .80 points per player per minute.  Not to be forgotten, Stanford’s three freshmen (Nuna Agara, Courtney Ogden, and Chloe Clardy) came off the bench for an average of just over 17 minutes each and contributed 40 points (or .78 points per player per minute).   That's exciting.  The full  story of these freshmen has yet to be written, but all seem destined for major minutes.  Ogden added 10 boards and 2 assists to her 16-point total, all in just 14 minutes on the floor.  Ogden’s ability to score inside and out while rebounding well makes her another promising replacement for Haley Jones. 

We will know more in two weeks, after four more games in a two week period, including one against higher ranked Indiana and another against highly respected Duke.

I'm excited.

Can the Non-Football Sports Recover From Chaotic Realignment?

 

Warren Grimes

Coach Tara VanDerveer has spoken of the grief of seeing the storied Pac-12 conference abruptly disintegrate.  As the conference’s number one WBB proponent, VanDerveer can rightly lament the undoing of what was probably the nation’s number one WBB conference. 

This was a money and football driven event.  Football provides the money, the money comes from big sports networks, and the networks care about their own bottom line and not much else.  Among college women’s sports, women’s hoops generates the most revenue, but it is a pittance compared to football.  Neither VanDerveer nor any of the other non-football college coaches had a meaningful say in what transpired.

Realignment is about the rich getting richer.  Schools fortunate enough to join the Big Ten or the SEC will get more revenue.  Those with the least leverage, such as Washington State or Oregon State, are likely to end up with less revenue. 

Realignment is a particular threat to many non-football college sports.  Instead of regional-based conferences, many of these teams (some playing 2 or 3 times as many games as football) now must reckon with the extensive travel involved in a national conference.  According to the Stanford press release, 14 sports will have to deal with significant scheduling changes. That likely includes major non-football sports such as basketball, volleyball, soccer, swimming, track and field, and gymnastics.

That hurts.

That hurts the student athletes.  They must spend substantially more travel time.  Their lives as students are more disrupted; stress and mental health issues could worsen.   

That hurts coaches and staff, who in addition to enduring expanded travel, must also reckon with more  complex scheduling.

That hurts fans, who lose traditional rivalries and have greater difficulty travelling to away matches. 

That hurts athletic departments that must pay costs for more expensive travel (perhaps chartering planes for some of this travel). 

That hurts recruiting for schools that lose out on revenue or prestige, and perhaps for schools that must endure the most disruptive travel.

And it even hurts the environment as hundreds of athletes log more time on planes travelling cross country on multiple occasions.

So what’s to be done?

Facing this challenge, the non-football coaches and staff should fight for their programs.  They should pressure their own athletic departments to make adjustments that will protect the integrity of their sport.  Doing so in coordinated fashion will increase their leverage.  The big winners among the Pac-12 schools are UCLA and USC, which have the most lucrative payouts from joining the Big Ten.  But the non-football sports at these schools face burdens similar to everyone else.   They are in this together.

The women’s basketball coaches of the soon to be former Pac-12 know each other and care about the future of their sport.  As VanDerveer leads her team through the final Pac-12 season, she can interact with her colleagues from other schools about how best to preserve the values of their sport.  Other non-football coaches will have a similar opportunity.  They have several points of leverage to influence future developments.

Let’s start with economics.  Since money is driving realignments, why shouldn’t budget-conscious administrators also seek to cut travel budgets by scheduling more regional games.  Of course, the advantages go well beyond money, as coaches know well the toll extensive travel takes on them and on their student athletes. 

The big sports networks probably don’t have much money in this game.  Yes, they would want to televise many of these non-football contests, but some of the best matchups will involve regional rivalries and schools that don’t necessarily excel at football (U Conn’s or Gonzaga’s men’s and women’s basketball teams, for example). 

The Pac-12 coaches will soon be split asunder (presumably in four separate conferences), but they can build a network with their colleagues in future conferences.  The interests of non-football coaches in the Big Ten, the Big 12, or the ACC are no different than those of the Pac-12 schools.

Coordinated appeals should focus on several ways of improving the sport and lessening travel burdens.

I.                     Football conference alignments could be separated from the conference alignments of other collegiate sports.  This would be the cleanest solution. Football is unique not simply because it generates the most revenue, but also because of the relatively small number of games played. Freeing the non-football sports from the link to football would allow more regionally based alignments.

II.                   To the extent that non-football sports remain in the same conference with football, several mitigating reforms could lessen the travel burdens.  The conference schedule, for example, could be reduced so that teams have discretion to schedule more regional games.  The conference championship would be based on fewer intra-conference games, perhaps placing greater emphasis on an end-of-season conference tournament. 

III.                 Another variation on this theme would allow each conference member to schedule a set number of games against worthy regional opponents that are not members of the same conference (these games could still count in the conference championship). 

IV.                Inter conference agreements could establish a system of cross conference games that would count toward the conference title, with these games designed to favor regional rivalries.

Realignments are unlikely to end with the demise of the Pac-12.  Other vulnerable conferences, including the Atlantic Coast Conference, are likely to see schools such as Florida State or Creighton bolt for greener (as in the color of money) pastures.  These moves are selfish, even to the point of being ugly, and certainly disrespectful of traditional alignments.  These developments have already sparked negative stories and commentary, including from Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Times, PBS, and NPR. 

Do non-profit educational institutions really want to be seen as cut-throat money grubbers who place the dollar above the interests of their own student athletes?  The selfish and decidedly unsavory conduct of schools raises the possibility that one or more committees of a dysfunctional Congress may decide to hold hearings on the realignments.  Members of Congress may disagree on a solution, but they could join hands in holding a hearing that will generate national publicity.  They have done so in the past and it is not unlikely that they will do so again.

A member of Congress from a state or district where a school has suffered revenue or prestige loss from realignment would enthusiastically support such a hearing.  While perhaps unlikely to result in legislation, a hearing could shine a light on the issues and generate indirect pressure for universities to rethink how they deal with each other and with their student athletes.

Realignment Chaos: Can the Non-Football Programs Preserve Traditional Rivalries?

 

Warren Grimes

With conference realignment foremost on our minds, it is appropriate to ask what will befall the non-football programs – programs that are central to Stanford regularly winning the Directors Cup and supplying the Olympics with gifted athletes.  A focus on football money streams is, unfortunately, unlikely to adequately address the interests of non-football programs and their student athletes.   

Stanford’s realignment has yet to be resolved, but most possible outcomes will raise concerns for Stanford Women’s Basketball as well as 30 plus other non-football programs, including men’s basketball, baseball, softball, women’s volleyball, and men’s and women’s soccer, tennis, swimming, gymnastics, and track and field.  Realignments may force time-consuming and expensive travel and the loss of traditional rivalries that motivate fans and players. 

Dismantling the Pac-12 conference will make it difficult to preserve regular contests with traditional opponents.  Stanford has decades of storied contests with the three other California-based Pac-12 members: California, UCLA, and USC.  And four other Pacific Coast schools (each a member of the old Pac-8) are regular rivals (Oregon, OSU, Washington, and WSU).  

Why is it important to maintain these traditional rivalries? 

Well, for one, the fans and the players value these rivalries.  Historical ties make for sharper focus and more intense competition.  The regional rivalries also make economic and environmental sense.  Why spend the time and money on long-distance cross-county treks when the competition is as good or better close to home.  Finally, there is the recruitment value of playing in a region where Stanford finds most of its recruits.

To be sure, Stanford recruits nationally and internationally.  For WBB, all three of our incoming freshman recruits are non-West Coast people.  Two others on the roster are from Greece.  That said, seven of the team’s upperclassmen are West Coast people – one from Oregon and six from California.  This season’s starting line up could well be made up solely of Pacific Coast players (Brink from Oregon and Iriafen, Demetre, Lepolo and Jump from California). 

There is an advantage in recruiting players who feel at home on the West Coast.  Was it an accident that all three players who transferred out of the program last year were non-West Coasters?  I can’t answer that, but it’s simply good advertising to have Stanford perform in areas where most potential recruits live.  Southern California has long been a key recruiting ground for Stanford WBB.

Football and men’s basketball provide most of the revenues for college athletics, but the bulk of an athletic department’s personnel are involved in non-football sports.  These coaches and staff are not just potted plants.  For any given sport, coaches have close ties to others in their sport, especially their in-conference colleagues.  These non-football coaches, while acknowledging the need for football generated revenues, will push for what is best for their sport and their program.   One might expect that they will push in the direction of freeing their sport from the ties of football conferences.  Failing that, if a conference schedule requires long and expensive journeys to faraway places, they will push to lighten the conference schedule, broadening their discretion to schedule nearby rivals.  These coaches and administrators already have substantial control over scheduling non-conference contests.

What’s good for Stanford is also good for our rival schools.  UCLA and USC, for example, doubtless see advantage in maintaining a non-football sport rivalry with Stanford, including the relatively short one-hour flight from Los Angeles to the Bay Area.  It is likely that every school leaving the Pac-12 will share Stanford’s interest in maintaining regularly scheduled contests among Pac-12 rivals.

Taking one additional step, it may be in the non-football programs’ interest to formalize these rivalries in a way that can ensure their long-term survival.   Schools in different conferences could still agree to regularly schedule games with one another.  For example, UCLA and USC could still agree to play one women’s BB game against Stanford each year, alternating home and away.  More broadly, an agreement between women’s BB programs could keep all the original Pac-8 schools on a once-a-year contest schedule.  Assuming Stanford was in a different conference from each of the other seven schools, this would mean 7 non-conference games each year, each against a traditional rival and each involving relatively manageable travel (If Cal, OSU, and WSU end up in the same conference with Stanford, that will mean only four non-conference games). 

This kind of agreement would preserve longstanding relationships among the schools and their coaches.  The agreements should be sport specific.  Baseball or women’s soccer, for example, would have to work out scheduling arrangements suitable for their sport. 

Stanford could take the lead in proposing such agreements, which arguably are in the interests of all the Pac-8 schools (and could even be broadened to include all schools currently in the Pac 12).  Cooperation among the Pac-12 coaches and administrators in non-football sports, in the longer term, could pave the way for separating football and non-football conferences.  There is precedent for that separation.  Stanford sports such as men’s volleyball, soccer, and water polo are part of conferences that have participants not conforming with Pac-12 membership. 

Demise of the Pac-12 and Other Off-Season Events

Warren Grimes

For women’s hoops fans, it’s been an interesting summer – not to mention the spring that preceded it. 

We learned at season’s end that the two top-ranked recruits from last year’s freshman class were transferring.  Lauren Betts, the #1 ranked high school recruit from last year, decided she preferred to play at UCLA.  Indya Nivar, another top 20 recruit, wanted to play closer to home in North Carolina.  On top of that, rising senior Agnes Emma-Nnopu opted to transfer to Texas. 

If there was a positive to be found anywhere in the off-season events, it was that Talana Lepolo, well behind Betts and Nivar in high school ranking, had become Stanford’s starting point guard and started for the U19 USA team that won the championship this summer.  Oh, and Cameron Brink – yes thank goodness for Brink – was the MVP of the champion USA team in the three-on-three WBB world competition in Vienna.

But in terms of what’s happened lately, it’s all about the disintegration of the Pac-12 conference.  After USC and UCLA announced their intention to join the Big Ten last year, the future of the conference was uncertain at best.  It’s worth noting, however, that even without UCLA and USC, the conference still could have been the best women’s hoops conference in the country.  

Three-time NCAA champion Stanford, with the winningest coach in BB history, was still there.  So was Arizona, which played in the NCAA championship game against Stanford in 2021.  Oregon could have won it all in 2020 if the NCAA tournament hadn’t been cancelled.  Then there was Utah, which shared the conference title with Stanford in 2023.  And not so lowly WSU, which pulled the most startling upset by winning the conference tournament last March (WSU still hasn’t bested Stanford in women’s hoops).  And that leaves out Colorado, which has become a no-nonsense team capable of beating Stanford and anyone else in the conference. 

So why take apart the best women’s hoops conference in the country? 

Well, the demise of the Conference had absolutely nothing to do with women’s hoops. 

It was all about money, money, money, and that money came primarily from football.  Each school that has chosen to leave the Pac-12, and that includes eight of the twelve members, has done so for a selfish reason – to maximize its television revenues.  In doing so, the schools showed little or no concern for the remaining conference members.  Nor have they paid much attention to women’s basketball or to any of the other non-football sports.  My hunch is that none of the eight women’s hoops coaches from the departing schools, while they will make the best of their opportunities, would have found this decision to be in the best interests of their program. 

So, the remains of the “Pac-4 Conference” are Stanford, California, OSU, and WSU.  The athletic directors at these schools can understandably ask: “what did we do wrong?” 

I cannot predict what will happen next.  A four-school conference is untenable, although the schools could agree to continue to cooperate in the short term, or even attempt a collective negotiation that would allow all four to join another conference.  The school with the most leverage may be Stanford, in part because of its storied record in many sports (winning the Director’s Cup consistently).  Stanford and California also have leverage because of their location in a populous Bay Area media market. 

Rather than try to predict, let me end by just suggesting what kind of a solution would be best--best for Stanford, but also best for the other three schools and college athletics generally.   That would be to separate football from the other sports.  As the UCLA football coach has suggested in an LA Times interview, there could be further consolidation of football conferences, perhaps even to the point of having a single national conference for football (with various regional divisions).  That conference could then negotiate lucrative media coverage contracts.  Other sports could be left to organize in smaller regionally based conferences (bring back a Pac-8 of the four schools in Washington, Oregon, and California?).  They could still sell media rights and bring in revenue, but money would no longer dominate decisions about what is in the best interests of the athletes and fans.  

Putting the Pieces Together

 

Warren Grimes

I find it difficult to write after a tough loss.  And the second-round loss to Mississippi, on the Maples home court, was as tough as they come.  It was not wholly unexpected, but nonetheless a gut punch for the Stanford players, coaches, and fans.   It ended the Stanford career for at least some of the four extraordinary seniors, each of whom played key roles in Stanford’s first national championship in over two decades.   Going out in the second round was not how Haley Jones and her mates wanted to write the script.

My immediate response to the loss was to be sad, even a bit depressed, and to spend a sleepless night wondering what if.  Others responded differently.   Over on the Cardboard, a few posters unleashed harsh criticism of Coach Tara VanDerveer, some of it in angry and disrespectful tones. 

VanDerveer has coached more teams to victory than any coach in WBB history.  She has three national championships to her credit, long strings of sweet sixteen and final four appearances, and numerous conference and conference tournament titles.  VanDerveer is not above criticism, but she’s entitled to respect because she is a person of principle and because of her amazing and durable record.

One of the criticisms on the Cardboard is that VanDerveer did not use and develop the right players.  As an example, one critic argued that the coach should have played Indya Nivar and Elena Bosgana more because of their superior offensive potential.  I am high on both players, but respectfully disagree.  Nivar, for example, could have seen more minutes by replacing Talana LePolo or Agnes Emma-Nnopu.  But VanDerveer and her staff watch these players every day in practice.  They are going to know far more than outsiders how consistently and intently each of them performs.  The coaches are not wearing blinders – if a player excels in practice, that player is going to get more minutes. A coach who does not follow these rules should switch to coaching nursery school dodgeball.

The season stats also do not support the critic’s views.  For one, Indya Nivar DID get substantial playing time: Nivar was tied with Emma-Nnopu for the sixth most minutes on the floor and ahead of 8^th place Kiki Iriafen.  When on the floor, Nivar was at times impressive, but shot threes at a modest 23% rate.  Emma-Nnopu, playing the same number of minutes as Nivar, shot threes at a 42% rate.  Emma Nnopu also was equal or better than Nivar in rebounding, free throw shooting percentage, and in steals. 

Lepolo, who had roughly twice as many minutes on the floor as Nivar, shot threes at 37% and had a superior assist to turnover ratio (2:1 compared to Nivar’s 1;1).  The truth is, none of these three players (Lepolo, Emma-Nnopu, or Nivar) was the kind of offensive threat that would challenge defensive schemes that collapsed around the team’s key scorers. 

Perhaps the statistics provide a somewhat stronger case for more minutes for Bosgana, who was the 11^th ranked player in team minutes.  Bosgana is a player ready and willing to put up shots and she shot threes at a respectable 32 % and field goals at an overall 44%.  Bosgana, like the other three, was not a consistent difference maker in key games.  Perhaps each of these players needs more time to develop, and that’s a reason for hope for next year.

Another criticism of VanDerveer is said to be her failure to recruit a top ranked point guard.  It’s easy to provide a list of highly ranked point guards who were recruited by Stanford but chose other schools, including Skylar Diggins, Paige Bueckers, and Kiki Rice.  These were indeed recruiting disappointments, but the picture is not fully revealed by focusing only on failures.  Over her career, there is a long list of star point guards that VanDerveer has brought to Stanford, including Jennifer Azzi, Sonja Henning, Susan King Borchardt, Jamila Wideman, Amber Orrange, and Kiana Williams.  Nonetheless, I would agree that Stanford has had difficulty in consistently filling the point guard position with top-flight talent, often forced to turn the position over to talented but not natural point guards, including Lacie Hull (last year) or Jeanette Pohlen or Nicole Powell in years past.   Indeed, Haley Jones has been performing point guard functions during her entire four years at Stanford.

A top ranked high school point guard is a valuable commodity for every college basketball team in the country.  It should surprise no one that Skylar Diggins or Kiki Rice was intensely recruited.  Those two candidates, in particular, were major disappointments because Stanford seemed to have a recruiting advantage.  Diggins had already tentatively committed to Stanford, only to be won over to Notre Dame at the end.  But Diggins had a natural South Bend connection, so maybe that should be less surprising.    As for Rice, we had the Susan King Borchardt family connection, but that turns out not to be decisive in many recruitments (Bonnie and Karlie Samuelson chose Stanford, but their even more highly regarded sister, Katie Lou, chose the evil empire).

I see no basis for concluding that Stanford, under Coach VanDerveer, is somehow inherently disadvantaged in recruiting top point guards.   One theory about this is that the Stanford style of offense tends to cripple the freedom of action of freewheeling point guards.  This theory is 90% hooey.   All coaches put limits on point guard behavior.  It’s true that some offenses emphasize fast break creativity while others focus more on a half court set up.  But VanDerveer has always taught her teams to run whenever possible.  Since Haley Jones joined the team, fast break creativity has been a focus.   

Are fans frustrated when Kiki Rice chooses to attend UCLA?  Of course.  But laying the blame on the coach for most of these individualized decisions is suspect, particularly when VanDerveer has succeeded in recruiting so many other top-flight players.

The focus of Stanford coaches is (and ought to be) next season.  With Haley Jones gone, the team urgently needs balanced perimeter scoring to complement Cameron Brink and Lauren Betts.  Anything that Stanford can do to enhance player development is a top priority.   And there’s lots to work with, even if none of the four seniors return for a “Covid” year (yet to be determined). 

Eight of the eleven players with the most minutes are underclassmen and should be returning.   Brink is obviously pivotal.  One other player who will be back is perhaps a diamond in the rough.  She is a player who, although yet to start a game, had the 5^th largest number of minutes on a per game basis.  She shot 36% from three-land and had an enviable 2:1 assist to turnover ratio.

Who is it?  

Brooke Demetre. 

 Lets hope that Demetre can diversify her offensive skills and become a major scoring threat.

The Pac-12: The Nation's Best WBB Conference, But Is There a Dominant Team?

 

Warren Grimes

The Pac 12 is the best WBB conference in the land, but with a major question mark.  There is talent, depth, and balance in the conference.  That was illustrated by the recently completed topsy turvy conference tournament.  Here are some of the difficult-to-get-your-head-around facts of that tournament.

Of the 11 games played in the tournament, 7 were won by the lower seed (that’s 63% of the games)

Counting only the 7 games played starting with the quarter finals, 5 of those games were won by the lower seed (that’s 71% of the games).

Stanford did not make the final.  That’s not unprecedented, but it is unusual.

Stanford was not alone.  None of the other top 4 seeds made the final.

Seeded number 7, Washington State was the lowest seed to make the final and the lowest to win the tournament.

The champion team, Washington State, has never (as in never-ever) defeated Stanford in WBB.

In the first tournament game, the lowest seed in the tournament, Arizona State, took finalist UCLA to overtime before bowing to the Bruins.

Conference Co-Champions Stanford and Utah collectively lost 2/3 of the 3 tournament games they played.

 

All of this suggests balance in the league.  And the out-of-conference records of these teams suggest their relative superiority over other conferences.  But is there a dominant team in the conference capable of winning it all?

If there is such a team, a prime candidate would be Stanford.   But Stanford lost 2 of the last 3 games it played, hardly an indicator of dominance.  And Utah, in the conference tournament, couldn’t get beyond its game-one loss to number-7 seeded Washington State.

All of this presents intriguing questions for the upcoming NCAA tournament.  I expect the Pac-12 to do quite well in representation (7 or 8 teams?).  And these teams should do well in the first 2 or 3 rounds.  But will any of them make the Final Four?  The Pac 12 could plausibly land 3 teams in the Final 4, but it could also end up not sending anyone.  The up and down performances of every one of the conference’s teams makes one pause.

As for Stanford, the season-ending games exposed vulnerabilities that last season’s team did not have.  This year’s Stanford team lost three of its late season starters with the graduation of the Hull twins and Anna Wilson.  Collectively, those three players provided last year’s team with 28.4% of its points, 41% of its three pointers, and an impressive 58% of its steals.

Four different players have stepped in to fill most of the minutes played by last year’s triumvirate.  They are Lepolo, Demetre, Emma-Nnopu, and Iriafen.  Collectively, playing slightly fewer minutes than last year’s graduated trio, these replacements have put up roughly the same number of team points (28.4%), but fewer of the team’s 3-pointers (37%) and a lot fewer of the team’s steals (30%).  Of these four players, only one (Lepolo) is averaging over 20 minutes per game.  Demetre, Emma-Nnopu and Iriafen are all in the 12 to 14 minute range (so is Nivar).  That could mean amazing depth.  Less optimistically, it means that the coaching staff has not found a player that consistently contributes and scores the way last year’s trio did.  Although each of the four replacement players has had very productive offensive games, none so far can consistently and productively occupy the fifth spot on the floor.     

When you compare this year’s with last year’s stats, the current team is shooting free throws much better, is averaging a few more points per game, and also has the edge in field goal shooting percentage (thanks to the “B” players – Brink, Betts, and Belibi – all shooting near or above a 50% rate).  Last year’s team was shooting threes a bit better, had a substantially higher average of steals (3 more per game) and had a more consistent record that brought them both an undefeated conference season and a conference tournament championship.  One reason for last year’s success is that Lexie was a creative and effective inside-outside scorer (third highest on the team) while her sister and Anna Wilson were threats from the three-point line.   Collectively, those three players were averaging 37% from three-point land.  Wilson proved extremely deadly from distance in tournament play.  Any team that based its defense on sagging to the middle would pay a heavy price. 

To get to the Final Four, Stanford must find someone other than the big three (Haley Jones, Cameron Brink, and Hannah Jump) to be a consistent offensive threat.  Probably that player must show inside-outside scoring ability to make a sagging offensive team pay the price.  Indeed, impressionistically, the comparison of this season with last season leads to this: last year Stanford excelled at perimeter guard offense.  This year’s team, with the addition of Butts, has superior inside play, but probably needs improved perimeter play from the guards to have a chance to win it all.

Stanford can still be a dominant team, but it must prove it.