An Exciting and Hungry Team: Some Forward-Looking Propositions

Warren Grimes

This young and relatively untested Stanford women’s team is off to a promising start.  Preseason, the team was unranked nationally; in a coaches poll, Stanford was picked for seventh place in the ACC.   Ignoring these predictions, the team decisively won three home games in seven days.  The margin of victory ranged from 64 points (against Le Moyne) to 29 points (against Washington State). 

The team has the motivation and talent to substantially outperform preseason predictions.  Indeed, they are likely to enter the top 25 when the next rankings are announced. 

Below I offer some optimistic propositions about this season’s team.   Are they too bold?  You decide. 

I.                    Kate Paye is positioned to become a world class coach and a worthy successor to Tara VanDerveer.

Tara VanDerveer was honored on Sunday for her historic achievements as the college game’s most winning coach.  VanDerveer has three NCAA titles, demonstrated repeated dominance in the ranks of the Pac 12 conference, and won respect for her outreach and support of women’s hoops nationally.  Her achievements are linked to her ability to communicate, to strategize, to teach, and to build lasting respect and friendship with her players and fellow coaches.  One classic Tara trait was her focus and intensity.

In passing the torch to her long-time deputy, VanDerveer has praised Kate Paye for her bandwidth.  Before Paye earned her first nickel in coaching, she already had on her resume her experience in playing in a national championship game at Stanford, playing in the pros, and receiving three degrees from Stanford, including a J.D. from the law school and an MBA from the business school.  As VanDerveer’s deputy, Paye helped Stanford through several final fours and the 2021 NCAA championship.

More than anything else, Paye’s three academic degrees demonstrate the focus and intensity of this coach.  Sound familiar?  Paye checks all the boxes that VanDerveer checked.  She’s a hard worker, dedicated, a great communicator, motivator, and teacher.  If the season’s first three games are any indication, Paye has put together a team strategy that makes the best use of player talent.   The team has limitations and will likely take some losses, but should easily outperform pre-season predictions.   Paye has motivated this team, which carries with it great team chemistry.

II.                  This year’s squad will be the best three-point shooting team in the team’s history.

Stanford graduated Hannah Jump, the team’s most prolific three-point shooter ever.  She’ll be hard to replace.  Yet, in its first three games, Stanford was on fire, with three consecutive games averaging 15 three-pointers (18 against Le Moyne, 14 against Washington State and 13 against Gonzaga).  A major reason for this was that so many different players were converting efficiently from distance.   They included Nunu Agara, Elena Bosgana, Brooke Demetre, Talana Lepolo, and Jzaniya Harriel, all starters, and three players from off the bench (Chloe Clardy, Courtney Ogden, and Tess Heal).  Of these players, the one with the lowest conversion percentage is Ogden, shooting threes at a mere 40%.  Two more tall players have come off the bench to convert threes: Mary Ashley Stevenson and Harper Pederson

It’s not unusual for shooters to excel in early home games against weaker opponents.  Conversion percentages are certain to go down in road games against tough opponents.  Still, the early games are encouraging.  Stanford no longer has Hannah Jump, but it has an extended list of shooters, including Jzaniya  I’m-not-throwin-away-my-shot Harriel, who was the highest percentage distance shooter on last year’s team (and was 11 for 16 in the first three games).  Add to this list Tess Heal, the Australian super-shooter who entered the Washington State game and converted all 4 of her three-point shots.  Heal appears fearless, the type of player who will launch Caitlin Clark shots from the parking lot.  Perhaps the most surprising addition to the three-point club is Chloe Clardy, an athletic and explosive guard who excels all over the court but shot only 10% (2 for 20) from distance last year.  Clardy shot 70% (7 for 10) in her first three games.  Clardy has changed the mechanics of her shots – with great results so far.

III.                Stanford will be a difficult scout.

This proposition is easy to defend.  Against last year’s team, an opponent could focus on Stanford post players Cameron I-am-throwin-away-your-shot Brink and Kiki Iriafen while always being mindful of where Hannah Jump was.  But this time, Stanford may have four or five players on the floor at any given moment, all of whom can shoot the three-ball with ruthless efficiency.  That means extending the perimeter defense, opening opportunities for interior passing, driving, and pick and roll moves.   

In the first three games, nine players averaged 14.9 or more minutes per game.  Two of the team's top five scorers (Chloe Clardy and Tess Neal) came off the bench.  There is real depth to the perimeter offense, making for a challenging scouting report. 

Stanford has its weaknesses, but its offensive game will be difficult to defend. 

IV.               Nunu Agara will end the season as the top scorer.

This is a more vulnerable proposition.  Agara is an all-American caliber player who can shoot the three ball and power opponents in the interior.  In any given game, she may not be the top scorer, but game in and game out, she is likely to be near the top in point production.  After three games, Agara has the top scoring average of 17.3 points.   Still, in each of the first two games, Elena Bosgana scored more points than Agara.  Bosgana in her senior season is showing leadership and intensity, converting threes and scoring off creative drives. 

In the Le Moyne game, Jzaniya Harriel outscored everyone else (24 points on 6 for 7 shooting from distance).  This illustrates a fundamental about this year’s team – the offense is likely to be more perimeter and guard-oriented.  Another likely top scorer could  be unafraid-to-launch Tess Heal, who was the high scorer at Santa Clara for the past two years.  Against Washington State, Heal scored 14 points in less than 20 minutes on the floor.  If she stays healthy, Heal’s floor time is likely to increase and place her in contention for top scoring honors.

V.                 Stanford’s ability to enter the elite ranks will depend on the evolution of offensive and defensive post play.

Stanford’s perimeter game has never looked better.  There is depth, talent, and opportunity for growth from a player like Shay Ijiwoye, a freshman who has played limited minutes so far but seems likely to make her mark with speed and athleticism. 

A potential weak point for Stanford is its depth and talent in the interior.  Nunu Agara is likely to perform well with her strength and inside-outside game.  No one, however, can replace the offensive and defensive prowess of Cameron Brink and Kiki Iriafen.  Stanford could have difficulty defending teams with powerful inside players.   Rebounding could be an issue against opponents who have powerful post players (Although losing by 31 points, Gonzaga outboarded the Cardinal 36 to 34). 

So making the leap to elite status will require other interior players to step up.  That includes veteran Brooke Demetre, transfer Mary Ashley Stevenson, and freshman Kennedy Umeh.  Stevenson is a savvy player getting major minutes off the bench.  At 6 foot 4, Umeh is tall and strong, but relatively inexperienced.  Inexperience is one quality most likely to change as the season progresses.

Stay tuned.  

Exceeding Expectations: This Season with WBB

 

Warren Grimes

This year’s Stanford WBB team is unranked at the start of the season.   That’s unusual for Stanford. 

The media’s assessment is not without reason.  Stanford lost two All American post players, one the leading shot blocker in Stanford history and the other the team’s leading scorer.  And they lost the team’s third leading scorer as well, an outside shooter with a 37.2% three-point average.

The team also lost Tara VanDerveer, a coach that won three national championships and more collegiate basketball games than any other coach.  And, if that wasn’t enough, the team must adjust to playing in a different league with a lot of cross-country travel and perennial top-25 teams.

There is, however, one advantage to starting the season unranked.   There is more room for the upward climb.  Getting into the top 25 will be a challenge – and a top ten ranking more so.  That said, the coaching staff and the players are excited by the challenge.  As a fan, I share that excitement and look forward to seeing what the team can do. 

The team just won an exhibition game against Cal State LA by a twenty-one point margin (91-70).  The game offered hints of where the team’s strengths may lie.   Three sophomore players showed the anticipated second year leap.  Nunu Agara played the post and had double digits in points (25) and rebounds (13).  Courtney Ogden put up 10 points and 6 boards.  And Chloe Clardy shared point guard responsibilities and scored 11, including 2-5 shooting from three-point land. 

Two seniors offered meaningful contributions.  Reliable and steady Brooke Demetre added 10 points while teammate Elena Bosgana put up 11.  And junior Jzaniya Harriel added another 11 while sharing the point guard position.   That makes 6 players who scored in double digits, all of them team veterans.  Therein lies one of the potential strengths of this team – unselfish basketball that allows different players to step up when opportunity and need arise.

Two other veterans played substantial minutes in the exhibition.  Both are transfer players.  Tess Heal, an Australian guard by way of Santa Clara, played 25 minutes and added 7 points.  Heal was the top scorer on last year’s Santa Clara team.  Mary Ashley Stevenson, a New Yorker who transferred from Perdue, added 4 points while playing 18 minutes.  Of note is that all eight of these players can shoot the three ball, and, in the exhibition, six of them converted a total of 10 three point shots at a 34.5% clip.

This year's team should have depth at the guard position, with a lot of outside shooting and, if the defense moves out, options for pick and roll and driving to the hoop.

So what’s missing?  Perhaps some defensive strategy and intensity to limit opponents’ scoring.   Also, two players likely to be in the Stanford rotation did not play in the exhibition.  Point guard Talana Lepolo was held back.  She was an assist leader and one of the two veterans in last year’s starting lineup.   And freshman Shay Ijiwoye is still recovering from an injury.  Ijiwoye is said to be both quick and fast and could be a disrupting defender who racks up a lot of steals.

Two other freshmen, Kennedy Umeh and Harper Peterson, played less than 2 minutes each but offer the team additional inside depth.  At 6”4”, Umeh is said to be the strongest player on the team.  Peterson at 6’3” can play both in the interior and on the perimeter.

Coach Paye anticipates a 9 or 10 player rotation.  Her coaching acumen will be tested this season, but she has already won my vote for her smooth handling of the media and press conferences.  And the players love her high energy in practices. 

This team is poised and hungry to move out of the world of unranked teams.