An Exciting and Hungry Team: Some Forward-Looking Propositions

Warren Grimes

This young and relatively untested Stanford women’s team is off to a promising start.  Preseason, the team was unranked nationally; in a coaches poll, Stanford was picked for seventh place in the ACC.   Ignoring these predictions, the team decisively won three home games in seven days.  The margin of victory ranged from 64 points (against Le Moyne) to 29 points (against Washington State). 

The team has the motivation and talent to substantially outperform preseason predictions.  Indeed, they are likely to enter the top 25 when the next rankings are announced. 

Below I offer some optimistic propositions about this season’s team.   Are they too bold?  You decide. 

I.                    Kate Paye is positioned to become a world class coach and a worthy successor to Tara VanDerveer.

Tara VanDerveer was honored on Sunday for her historic achievements as the college game’s most winning coach.  VanDerveer has three NCAA titles, demonstrated repeated dominance in the ranks of the Pac 12 conference, and won respect for her outreach and support of women’s hoops nationally.  Her achievements are linked to her ability to communicate, to strategize, to teach, and to build lasting respect and friendship with her players and fellow coaches.  One classic Tara trait was her focus and intensity.

In passing the torch to her long-time deputy, VanDerveer has praised Kate Paye for her bandwidth.  Before Paye earned her first nickel in coaching, she already had on her resume her experience in playing in a national championship game at Stanford, playing in the pros, and receiving three degrees from Stanford, including a J.D. from the law school and an MBA from the business school.  As VanDerveer’s deputy, Paye helped Stanford through several final fours and the 2021 NCAA championship.

More than anything else, Paye’s three academic degrees demonstrate the focus and intensity of this coach.  Sound familiar?  Paye checks all the boxes that VanDerveer checked.  She’s a hard worker, dedicated, a great communicator, motivator, and teacher.  If the season’s first three games are any indication, Paye has put together a team strategy that makes the best use of player talent.   The team has limitations and will likely take some losses, but should easily outperform pre-season predictions.   Paye has motivated this team, which carries with it great team chemistry.

II.                  This year’s squad will be the best three-point shooting team in the team’s history.

Stanford graduated Hannah Jump, the team’s most prolific three-point shooter ever.  She’ll be hard to replace.  Yet, in its first three games, Stanford was on fire, with three consecutive games averaging 15 three-pointers (18 against Le Moyne, 14 against Washington State and 13 against Gonzaga).  A major reason for this was that so many different players were converting efficiently from distance.   They included Nunu Agara, Elena Bosgana, Brooke Demetre, Talana Lepolo, and Jzaniya Harriel, all starters, and three players from off the bench (Chloe Clardy, Courtney Ogden, and Tess Heal).  Of these players, the one with the lowest conversion percentage is Ogden, shooting threes at a mere 40%.  Two more tall players have come off the bench to convert threes: Mary Ashley Stevenson and Harper Pederson

It’s not unusual for shooters to excel in early home games against weaker opponents.  Conversion percentages are certain to go down in road games against tough opponents.  Still, the early games are encouraging.  Stanford no longer has Hannah Jump, but it has an extended list of shooters, including Jzaniya  I’m-not-throwin-away-my-shot Harriel, who was the highest percentage distance shooter on last year’s team (and was 11 for 16 in the first three games).  Add to this list Tess Heal, the Australian super-shooter who entered the Washington State game and converted all 4 of her three-point shots.  Heal appears fearless, the type of player who will launch Caitlin Clark shots from the parking lot.  Perhaps the most surprising addition to the three-point club is Chloe Clardy, an athletic and explosive guard who excels all over the court but shot only 10% (2 for 20) from distance last year.  Clardy shot 70% (7 for 10) in her first three games.  Clardy has changed the mechanics of her shots – with great results so far.

III.                Stanford will be a difficult scout.

This proposition is easy to defend.  Against last year’s team, an opponent could focus on Stanford post players Cameron I-am-throwin-away-your-shot Brink and Kiki Iriafen while always being mindful of where Hannah Jump was.  But this time, Stanford may have four or five players on the floor at any given moment, all of whom can shoot the three-ball with ruthless efficiency.  That means extending the perimeter defense, opening opportunities for interior passing, driving, and pick and roll moves.   

In the first three games, nine players averaged 14.9 or more minutes per game.  Two of the team's top five scorers (Chloe Clardy and Tess Neal) came off the bench.  There is real depth to the perimeter offense, making for a challenging scouting report. 

Stanford has its weaknesses, but its offensive game will be difficult to defend. 

IV.               Nunu Agara will end the season as the top scorer.

This is a more vulnerable proposition.  Agara is an all-American caliber player who can shoot the three ball and power opponents in the interior.  In any given game, she may not be the top scorer, but game in and game out, she is likely to be near the top in point production.  After three games, Agara has the top scoring average of 17.3 points.   Still, in each of the first two games, Elena Bosgana scored more points than Agara.  Bosgana in her senior season is showing leadership and intensity, converting threes and scoring off creative drives. 

In the Le Moyne game, Jzaniya Harriel outscored everyone else (24 points on 6 for 7 shooting from distance).  This illustrates a fundamental about this year’s team – the offense is likely to be more perimeter and guard-oriented.  Another likely top scorer could  be unafraid-to-launch Tess Heal, who was the high scorer at Santa Clara for the past two years.  Against Washington State, Heal scored 14 points in less than 20 minutes on the floor.  If she stays healthy, Heal’s floor time is likely to increase and place her in contention for top scoring honors.

V.                 Stanford’s ability to enter the elite ranks will depend on the evolution of offensive and defensive post play.

Stanford’s perimeter game has never looked better.  There is depth, talent, and opportunity for growth from a player like Shay Ijiwoye, a freshman who has played limited minutes so far but seems likely to make her mark with speed and athleticism. 

A potential weak point for Stanford is its depth and talent in the interior.  Nunu Agara is likely to perform well with her strength and inside-outside game.  No one, however, can replace the offensive and defensive prowess of Cameron Brink and Kiki Iriafen.  Stanford could have difficulty defending teams with powerful inside players.   Rebounding could be an issue against opponents who have powerful post players (Although losing by 31 points, Gonzaga outboarded the Cardinal 36 to 34). 

So making the leap to elite status will require other interior players to step up.  That includes veteran Brooke Demetre, transfer Mary Ashley Stevenson, and freshman Kennedy Umeh.  Stevenson is a savvy player getting major minutes off the bench.  At 6 foot 4, Umeh is tall and strong, but relatively inexperienced.  Inexperience is one quality most likely to change as the season progresses.

Stay tuned.