Weekend Update: After Demoralizing Loss, Conferce Chaos to the Rescue

 

Warren Grimes

For those who slept through the weekend, there were upsets of each of the top three teams in Pac-12 play.  First place Stanford lost on Friday to seventh place Arizona, leaving the Cardinal with only a one game lead over the tied second place teams.  On Sunday, conference chaos produced upset losses for each of the second-place teams.  Playing on the road in L.A., sixth place Utah upset USC.  Playing at home in Seattle, tenth place Washington upset Oregon State.

The upshot was that Stanford players were donning conference champion t-shirts at Maples.  By defeating Arizona State, and with a little help from short term friends Utah and Washington, Stanford had guaranteed itself at least a share of the championship.

The story has more drama than a brief synopsis can impart.  Going back to Maples last Friday evening, one team achieved a come-from-behind Cinderella result while the other suffered a gut-wrenching loss.  Last Friday, it was Stanford that suffered the demoralizing and frustrating defeat. 

Stanford led Arizona from the get-go and did not give up that lead until there was only 1:56 left in the fourth quarter.  An Iriafen lay up tied the game again, but with just 31 seconds on the clock, Arizona guard Jada Williams banked in a three-pointer.  Stanford did not score again. 

The fourth quarter was a disaster for Stanford.  Beginning with an 8-point advantage, Stanford gave up 31 points to Arizona while scoring only 16 of their own.  The Arizona run was punctuated by lots of turnovers and some exceptional shooting from Arizona guard Williams.  All of Arizona’s three-point conversions (4 of them) occurred in the fourth quarter. 

Emblematic of Stanford’s fourth quarter trials was an offensive foul on Talana Lepolo.  Arizona had tied the game on a lay-up following a Stanford turnover.  Talana Lepolo rushed down the court to accept the inbounds pass, in the process obliterating an Arizona defender whom she had not seen.  Lepolo was called for an offensive foul and Stanford had turned the ball over before even attempting an inbound pass.

The Arizona win was an upset, but less so because Stanford was Brinkless.  Cameron Brink was recovering from a tough case of the flu and did not play on Friday.  Is that a big deal?  Brink has a unique and potent set of tools.  On defense, she blocks, alters shots, and steals.  On offense she scores, boards, and shoots free throws with ruthless efficiency.  Her unavailability is a difference maker. 

Stanford, however, still played to win.  Kiki Iriafen stepped up with more than usual stats:  21 points, 15 boards, 4 assists, and 3 blocks.  Booke Demetre replaced Brink in the starting line up and generated 15 points, 4 boards, and 2 blocks of her own.  Hannah Jump contributed 13 points on 3 for 5 shooting from distance.  And for the second time in conference play against Arizona, Chloe Clardy clocked major minutes as a ball handler.  In 20 minutes, Clardy contributed 7 points and 2 assists.   Clardy also was credited with 2 steals that were critical in a late third quarter Stanford run.

Going into Sunday’s game against ASU, Stanford knew that its lead against second-place USC and OSU was down to one game.  The big question was: could Brink play?  

Play she did.  Although she later conceded feeling only 60%,  in just 23 minutes on the court, her stats were the usual exceptional: 14 points, 9 boards, 7 assists, and 5 blocks.  Iriafen, perhaps benefiting from Brink’s presence, had an All American performance with 22 points, 20 boards, and 4 assists.  There is, however, more drama to this game.

Talana Lepolo, Stanford’s stalwart point guard, was held out of the game pending further medical input on an injury.  Her point guard role was filled by Jzaniya Harriel, who started her first game at Stanford.  Harriel contributed just one assist but led the offense with only a single turnover and added 12 points on 4-8 shooting from distance.  In her final conference home game, Hannah Jump added 11 points and 4 assists.  Nunu Agara added her own 11 points on some impressive offensive boards and putbacks. 

Stanford is a team with very good chemistry.  When Agara comes in off the bench for just 13 minutes and contributes 4 offensive boards and 11 points (on 4 for 5 shooting), that’s a sign that she has learned how to contribute to team success.  Players who learn to play their role, and play it well, add to team strength and generate more good chemistry.  

Tara VanDerver has been a leader of the soon to disappear Pac-12 conference.  She frequently reminds the world that the conference’s competitive schedule is a major plus in preparing Stanford and its rivals for the big dance.  The results of last weekend demonstrate the conference’s high level of play from top to bottom.  Tenth place Washington brought down second place Oregon State.  Eleventh place ASU lost on the road to first place Stanford, but the game was competitive from start to finish.  ASU is unlikely to be chosen for the big dance.  It is still a very good team that has a non-conference record of 8 wins and 4 losses.   Given a chance, ASU could certainly defeat some of the 64 teams that will play in the NCAA tournament.

As a fan of Stanford and the game, I am excited about Stanford’s chances in the tournaments ahead.  I am also disgusted that the economics of college athletics have produced the demise of a wonderful conference, not just for women’s hoops, but for most of the other sports in which Stanford competes.

Was this Year’s Pac-12 Schedule Fair? Why Unfairness Issues Will Be Exacerbated by Conference Realignments

 

Warren Grimes

The Pac-12, in its last year, is a peculiarly strong conference: one in which virtually all its 12 teams had a winning record against non-conference opponents; one in which Washington, tied for tenth place in the conference, was able to take the first-place team (Stanford) to overtime.  It is also, however, a conference in which the top six teams, each of whom at one point in the season has been rated among the top 10 or 11 teams nationally, have created a substantial gap with the bottom six teams.   

Pac-12 scheduling provides for 18 conference games.  That’s not enough for a home and away game against every opponent (that would require 22 games).  Each team is matched with a rival (Stanford with Cal, UCLA with USC, etc.).  On a rotating basis, each pair of rivals is scheduled to play 4 opponents only once.   This season, for example, Stanford and Cal played the Mountain schools only once (on the road) while playing the LA schools only once (at Maples).  That can be an advantage or a disadvantage depending on the strength of opponents. 

This season, the conference results may be skewed more than usual because of the strong demarcation between the top six and the bottom six teams.  In the conference standings, UCLA and Utah are tied for fifth with 9 wins and 5 losses.  Both have been among the top 5 in the country and have largely stayed among the nation’s top 20 teams.  UCLA, once ranked #2 in the country, has victories over U Conn and Ohio State.  Just below them is the seventh ranked team, Arizona, which has 8 losses and 6 wins in conference.  Arizona is a good team with an overall 14-12 record but not deserving of the national recognition that UCLA or Utah have.  The top six teams, collectively, have won 64 conference games with just 24 losses.  Almost all those losses have come in contests against one another.  For example, Colorado, Oregon State and UCLA had losses this last weekend, in each case to another top six team. 

The conference champion is determined by total won/loss record in the conference, with no adjustments for the strength of the conference opponent.  Any team forced to play one of the top six teams more than the bottom six has a disadvantage.  By this measure, among the six contenders, Stanford has the easiest schedule and Oregon State the toughest.

Stanford – Plays top six conference teams a total of six times (Oregon State twice and the LA and Mountain schools only once each).

Oregon State – Plays top six teams a total of ten times (each of the five other contenders twice).

Mountain and LA Schools – Play top six teams a total of nine times (play each other and Oregon State twice but Stanford only once). 

By this measure, Stanford has an advantage and OSU (and the other four contenders) a disadvantage.  That, of course, does not mean Stanford, should it win the championship, is not the best team.  It just means that the road to the championship was somewhat easier than it was for Oregon State and the other four top ranked teams. 

Conference results matter for seeding in the conference tournament.  In this year’s Pac-12 tournament, being either a one or a two seed is a substantial advantage – the top two seeds will not meet any of the other top six teams until the semifinals at the earliest.  In contrast, the three and four seeds may face another of the top six teams in the quarterfinals. 

Next year, scheduling unfairness will be exacerbated by conference realignments that increase the size of conferences – it becomes more and more difficult to schedule home and away contests against everyone in the conference.  One way of adjusting for this is to weigh the value of a win more heavily when the opponent has a strong national standing.  Adjusting the value of a win can reduce unfairness, but the messiness of this solution is another reason that creation of huge conferences is not in the interests of women’s basketball and most other college sports.

So, who is the conference’s best team?  Stanford has only 2 losses, putting it two games ahead of Oregon State, Colorado, and USC in the loss column.  To be fair, would Stanford have only 2 losses had it faced, as Oregon State has, the mountain and Southern California schools in four additional games?  That’s a question with no certain answer.  Whatever the scheduling inequities, Stanford would prove something if it can win its last four games.  One of those would be a road game against an impressive Oregon State team, currently tied for second place, that has faced the roughest conference schedule of any of the six contending teams. 

Against California, Stanford impressively held California to its lowest point total of the season (49 points).  No other conference team has bested Cal by a 35-point margin.  There were 5 players in double figures, led by Kiki Iriafen with 23 points.  Cameron Brink had 14, as did Hannah Jump.  Elena Boscana and Brooke Demetre had 11 points each.  The team converted three-point shots at a 45.5% clip with 36 points in the paint.  One of the most impressive facets of the game was the solid physical defense, helped by player-to-player communication and the interior strength of Cameron Brink and Iriafen.  Perimeter defenders can face three-point shooters more aggressively when they know there is backup near the basket.  That physical and in your face perimeter defense threw Cal off its otherwise proficient offense.   

If Stanford can retain its focus and play the way it did against California, it can capture the conference championship and credibly claim to be the conference’s best team.

The Stanford Bench: Who’s on the Court in Crunch Time?

 

Warren Grimes

With substantial depth and diversity in the Stanford roster, it’s fascinating to see who Coach VanDerveer calls upon during critical moments.  Crunch time is often in the fourth quarter when the team is fighting to overcome a deficit or to hold on to a lead. The players who play these minutes vary over time as young players settle in, injuries or foul trouble limits availability, and matchups change.  On any given day, a hot hand can earn a player a role in critical minutes.

Four Stanford starters are, assuming they are available, likely to be on the floor in critical moments: Cameron Brink, Kiki Iriafen, Hanah Jump, and Talana Lepolo.  Foul trouble can limit their time.  So who among the bench players is most likely to be in the game when it matters most.

Brooke Demetri is often the first off the bench, and averages 20.5 minutes per game.  She’s an obvious choice in crunch time because of her steady defense, her 2 to 1 assist to turnover ratio and her ability to take and make critical three-point shots.  In the critical overtime win against Washington last Friday, Dimitri shot only once.  She converted a critical three point shot in the fourth quarter that allowed Stanford to hold on to the tie in regulation.   

Last weekend, however, it was not Dimitri who got the most minutes off the bench.  Freshman Courtney Ogden averaged 21 minutes of play against the Washington schools.  She scored 11 critical points against the Huskies, playing the entire overtime.  With 6 seconds on the clock and holding a slim 2-point lead, Stanford was having difficulties inbounding the ball.  Ogden broke free of her defender to take an inbound pass and convert a contested layup.  With just 5 seconds left, the Huskies could not convert, ensuring the Stanford win. 

Against Washington State two days later, Ogden once again played the most minutes off the bench (19 minutes), making both of her shot attempts (including a three-pointer) and pulling down three boards.  One reason that Ogden is winning this floor time is her solid defense and steadiness under pressure (a 1.3 assist to turnover ratio).  Ogden has learned to let the game come to her and is developing into a valuable crunch-time player. 

Other players have gained the trust of the coaches and earn minutes during critical moments.  After Demetri, Jzaniya Harriel is the highest scoring bench player in conference play.  She is averaging 4.2 points per game while playing defense and shooting 55% from the three-point line.  Nunu Agara is close behind, averaging 4.1 points in conference play.  Agara is most often a replacement for interior standouts Brink and Iriafen.  In the last six games, those two players have largely avoided foul trouble, limiting Agara’s time on the floor.  In conference play, Agara is converting her shots at a 56.8% clip. 

That leaves Chloe Clardy, averaging just 6.8 minutes since conference play began.  That understates her value as a ball handler and assist maker. When Arizona’s pressing guards were disrupting Stanford’s offensive flow, Clardy came in to steady things, scoring 6 points and dishing out 4 assists in 21 minutes of floor time. 

Meanwhile, during the last six games, the MVP award goes to Cameron Brink, who has avoided foul trouble while playing an average of 32.8 minutes, scoring 21 points and hauling in 15 boards per game.  Those numbers don’t adequately describe Brink’s value to the team.  Brink had 28 blocks during the six games, with countless other shots altered or not taken because of Brink’s presence in the game.  That's why Brink is a serious candidate for a league or national MVP award.  

    

Positives From a Weekend Split: WAT-KIN-S-top A Player Like That?

 

Warren Grimes

JuJu Watkins is an amazing player-- the best USC has ever had.  She is more versatile and has more finesse than either Lisa Leslie or Tina Thompson.  She is a wonderful point guard who can battle with the bigs on the inside.  Quite simply a phenom who can shoot inside and out, block, defend, board, and assist.  She emphatically documented this by scoring 51 points against Stanford, a national best for the year.  As a freshman, she is well positioned to be the conference player of the year. 

The disappearing Pac-12 has had some fantastic players, including Washington’s Kelsey Plum and Oregon’s Sabrina Ionescu.  If I get to choose first, it’s an easy choice:  I’ll take Juju Watkins any day of the week.    

Watkins scored all but 16 of USC’s 67 points in the upset win over Stanford on Friday night.  Stanford still won the interior battle:  Brink had 19 points and 15 boards; Iriafen had 16 points and 9 boards.  But both shot poorly – their collective 31% is well below either player’s average.  USC played tough on the inside, in the process fouling out 3 of its interior players.  They had enough, however, to disrupt Stanford’s offense and limit the team to 58 points on 31.6% shooting. 

The game was a disappointment because, Watkins notwithstanding, a team that exploited USC’s defensive choices could have prevailed.  On any given day, USC can challenge anyone.  But a team that relies so heavily on one player is vulnerable when the star has an off day.  We’ll see.

Would Stanford be able to bounce back against number-7 ranked UCLA?  Any doubt seemed resolved when Stanford converted its first six shots.  The team never looked back.  Stanford more than doubled its shooting percentage from the previous game – from 31.6% to 63.5% - the best percentage in a decade.   37 of those points came from Brink and Iriafen, but contributions came from Jump (10) and four other players with 5 or more points.  There were 17 turnovers, always an issue when playing UCLA, but Stanford compensated by blocking 10 UCLA attempts and outrebounding the Bruins 43 to 29.

UCLA played without its pivotal inside player Lauren Betts and missed a bunch of other talented bigs.  Emily Bessoir, a 6 -4 big who can shoot the three, is injured and will miss the entire season.   Izzy Anstey,  6 -4, was also out for medical reasons.  Lina Sontag, 6 -3 and from Germany, started against Cal but left before the Stanford game to join the national team for Olympic try outs.  That left Angela Dugalic, also 6-4 but relatively inexperienced.  She scored 6 points in 22 minutes on the floor (and now leaves for Serbia to play with the Serbian national team). UCLA has superior guards but is quite unexpectedly short of tall talent.  The Bruins desperately need Betts to come back, or at least for Olympic try outs to end.

Stanford is still favorably positioned to win the conference.  They are tied with Colorado, each with two losses.  But Colorado will face Utah, UCLA, and USC, all on the road.  Stanford’s toughest road game, at least on paper, is against Oregon State.  Of course, as VanDerveer constantly reminds her team, any conference team can knock you down.

Brink now has four consecutive games with 15 plus points and 15 plus boards.  Even more critical for the defense, Brink had 15 blocks in the two weekend games.  Her 3.6 block average for conference games makes it easier for Stanford to focus on perimeter defense.  It’s no surprise that Stanford is 1^st in the conference in three-point conversions allowed and second in conference percentage field goal defense.  Brink makes any opponent rethink their offense.  Meanwhile, no Stanford opponent has been able to stop Kiki Iriafen.  The two players make one another better.  Stanford is first in the conference in rebounding margin. 

For Stanford to improve further, the perimeter players must add to the offensive diversity of this team. More than anything else, to win, Stanford must maintain focus and intensity for every minute in every single matchup.