Was this Year’s Pac-12 Schedule Fair? Why Unfairness Issues Will Be Exacerbated by Conference Realignments

 

Warren Grimes

The Pac-12, in its last year, is a peculiarly strong conference: one in which virtually all its 12 teams had a winning record against non-conference opponents; one in which Washington, tied for tenth place in the conference, was able to take the first-place team (Stanford) to overtime.  It is also, however, a conference in which the top six teams, each of whom at one point in the season has been rated among the top 10 or 11 teams nationally, have created a substantial gap with the bottom six teams.   

Pac-12 scheduling provides for 18 conference games.  That’s not enough for a home and away game against every opponent (that would require 22 games).  Each team is matched with a rival (Stanford with Cal, UCLA with USC, etc.).  On a rotating basis, each pair of rivals is scheduled to play 4 opponents only once.   This season, for example, Stanford and Cal played the Mountain schools only once (on the road) while playing the LA schools only once (at Maples).  That can be an advantage or a disadvantage depending on the strength of opponents. 

This season, the conference results may be skewed more than usual because of the strong demarcation between the top six and the bottom six teams.  In the conference standings, UCLA and Utah are tied for fifth with 9 wins and 5 losses.  Both have been among the top 5 in the country and have largely stayed among the nation’s top 20 teams.  UCLA, once ranked #2 in the country, has victories over U Conn and Ohio State.  Just below them is the seventh ranked team, Arizona, which has 8 losses and 6 wins in conference.  Arizona is a good team with an overall 14-12 record but not deserving of the national recognition that UCLA or Utah have.  The top six teams, collectively, have won 64 conference games with just 24 losses.  Almost all those losses have come in contests against one another.  For example, Colorado, Oregon State and UCLA had losses this last weekend, in each case to another top six team. 

The conference champion is determined by total won/loss record in the conference, with no adjustments for the strength of the conference opponent.  Any team forced to play one of the top six teams more than the bottom six has a disadvantage.  By this measure, among the six contenders, Stanford has the easiest schedule and Oregon State the toughest.

Stanford – Plays top six conference teams a total of six times (Oregon State twice and the LA and Mountain schools only once each).

Oregon State – Plays top six teams a total of ten times (each of the five other contenders twice).

Mountain and LA Schools – Play top six teams a total of nine times (play each other and Oregon State twice but Stanford only once). 

By this measure, Stanford has an advantage and OSU (and the other four contenders) a disadvantage.  That, of course, does not mean Stanford, should it win the championship, is not the best team.  It just means that the road to the championship was somewhat easier than it was for Oregon State and the other four top ranked teams. 

Conference results matter for seeding in the conference tournament.  In this year’s Pac-12 tournament, being either a one or a two seed is a substantial advantage – the top two seeds will not meet any of the other top six teams until the semifinals at the earliest.  In contrast, the three and four seeds may face another of the top six teams in the quarterfinals. 

Next year, scheduling unfairness will be exacerbated by conference realignments that increase the size of conferences – it becomes more and more difficult to schedule home and away contests against everyone in the conference.  One way of adjusting for this is to weigh the value of a win more heavily when the opponent has a strong national standing.  Adjusting the value of a win can reduce unfairness, but the messiness of this solution is another reason that creation of huge conferences is not in the interests of women’s basketball and most other college sports.

So, who is the conference’s best team?  Stanford has only 2 losses, putting it two games ahead of Oregon State, Colorado, and USC in the loss column.  To be fair, would Stanford have only 2 losses had it faced, as Oregon State has, the mountain and Southern California schools in four additional games?  That’s a question with no certain answer.  Whatever the scheduling inequities, Stanford would prove something if it can win its last four games.  One of those would be a road game against an impressive Oregon State team, currently tied for second place, that has faced the roughest conference schedule of any of the six contending teams. 

Against California, Stanford impressively held California to its lowest point total of the season (49 points).  No other conference team has bested Cal by a 35-point margin.  There were 5 players in double figures, led by Kiki Iriafen with 23 points.  Cameron Brink had 14, as did Hannah Jump.  Elena Boscana and Brooke Demetre had 11 points each.  The team converted three-point shots at a 45.5% clip with 36 points in the paint.  One of the most impressive facets of the game was the solid physical defense, helped by player-to-player communication and the interior strength of Cameron Brink and Iriafen.  Perimeter defenders can face three-point shooters more aggressively when they know there is backup near the basket.  That physical and in your face perimeter defense threw Cal off its otherwise proficient offense.   

If Stanford can retain its focus and play the way it did against California, it can capture the conference championship and credibly claim to be the conference’s best team.