Was this Year’s Pac-12 Schedule Fair? Why Unfairness Issues Will Be Exacerbated by Conference Realignments

 

Warren Grimes

The Pac-12, in its last year, is a peculiarly strong conference: one in which virtually all its 12 teams had a winning record against non-conference opponents; one in which Washington, tied for tenth place in the conference, was able to take the first-place team (Stanford) to overtime.  It is also, however, a conference in which the top six teams, each of whom at one point in the season has been rated among the top 10 or 11 teams nationally, have created a substantial gap with the bottom six teams.   

Pac-12 scheduling provides for 18 conference games.  That’s not enough for a home and away game against every opponent (that would require 22 games).  Each team is matched with a rival (Stanford with Cal, UCLA with USC, etc.).  On a rotating basis, each pair of rivals is scheduled to play 4 opponents only once.   This season, for example, Stanford and Cal played the Mountain schools only once (on the road) while playing the LA schools only once (at Maples).  That can be an advantage or a disadvantage depending on the strength of opponents. 

This season, the conference results may be skewed more than usual because of the strong demarcation between the top six and the bottom six teams.  In the conference standings, UCLA and Utah are tied for fifth with 9 wins and 5 losses.  Both have been among the top 5 in the country and have largely stayed among the nation’s top 20 teams.  UCLA, once ranked #2 in the country, has victories over U Conn and Ohio State.  Just below them is the seventh ranked team, Arizona, which has 8 losses and 6 wins in conference.  Arizona is a good team with an overall 14-12 record but not deserving of the national recognition that UCLA or Utah have.  The top six teams, collectively, have won 64 conference games with just 24 losses.  Almost all those losses have come in contests against one another.  For example, Colorado, Oregon State and UCLA had losses this last weekend, in each case to another top six team. 

The conference champion is determined by total won/loss record in the conference, with no adjustments for the strength of the conference opponent.  Any team forced to play one of the top six teams more than the bottom six has a disadvantage.  By this measure, among the six contenders, Stanford has the easiest schedule and Oregon State the toughest.

Stanford – Plays top six conference teams a total of six times (Oregon State twice and the LA and Mountain schools only once each).

Oregon State – Plays top six teams a total of ten times (each of the five other contenders twice).

Mountain and LA Schools – Play top six teams a total of nine times (play each other and Oregon State twice but Stanford only once). 

By this measure, Stanford has an advantage and OSU (and the other four contenders) a disadvantage.  That, of course, does not mean Stanford, should it win the championship, is not the best team.  It just means that the road to the championship was somewhat easier than it was for Oregon State and the other four top ranked teams. 

Conference results matter for seeding in the conference tournament.  In this year’s Pac-12 tournament, being either a one or a two seed is a substantial advantage – the top two seeds will not meet any of the other top six teams until the semifinals at the earliest.  In contrast, the three and four seeds may face another of the top six teams in the quarterfinals. 

Next year, scheduling unfairness will be exacerbated by conference realignments that increase the size of conferences – it becomes more and more difficult to schedule home and away contests against everyone in the conference.  One way of adjusting for this is to weigh the value of a win more heavily when the opponent has a strong national standing.  Adjusting the value of a win can reduce unfairness, but the messiness of this solution is another reason that creation of huge conferences is not in the interests of women’s basketball and most other college sports.

So, who is the conference’s best team?  Stanford has only 2 losses, putting it two games ahead of Oregon State, Colorado, and USC in the loss column.  To be fair, would Stanford have only 2 losses had it faced, as Oregon State has, the mountain and Southern California schools in four additional games?  That’s a question with no certain answer.  Whatever the scheduling inequities, Stanford would prove something if it can win its last four games.  One of those would be a road game against an impressive Oregon State team, currently tied for second place, that has faced the roughest conference schedule of any of the six contending teams. 

Against California, Stanford impressively held California to its lowest point total of the season (49 points).  No other conference team has bested Cal by a 35-point margin.  There were 5 players in double figures, led by Kiki Iriafen with 23 points.  Cameron Brink had 14, as did Hannah Jump.  Elena Boscana and Brooke Demetre had 11 points each.  The team converted three-point shots at a 45.5% clip with 36 points in the paint.  One of the most impressive facets of the game was the solid physical defense, helped by player-to-player communication and the interior strength of Cameron Brink and Iriafen.  Perimeter defenders can face three-point shooters more aggressively when they know there is backup near the basket.  That physical and in your face perimeter defense threw Cal off its otherwise proficient offense.   

If Stanford can retain its focus and play the way it did against California, it can capture the conference championship and credibly claim to be the conference’s best team.

The Stanford Bench: Who’s on the Court in Crunch Time?

 

Warren Grimes

With substantial depth and diversity in the Stanford roster, it’s fascinating to see who Coach VanDerveer calls upon during critical moments.  Crunch time is often in the fourth quarter when the team is fighting to overcome a deficit or to hold on to a lead. The players who play these minutes vary over time as young players settle in, injuries or foul trouble limits availability, and matchups change.  On any given day, a hot hand can earn a player a role in critical minutes.

Four Stanford starters are, assuming they are available, likely to be on the floor in critical moments: Cameron Brink, Kiki Iriafen, Hanah Jump, and Talana Lepolo.  Foul trouble can limit their time.  So who among the bench players is most likely to be in the game when it matters most.

Brooke Demetri is often the first off the bench, and averages 20.5 minutes per game.  She’s an obvious choice in crunch time because of her steady defense, her 2 to 1 assist to turnover ratio and her ability to take and make critical three-point shots.  In the critical overtime win against Washington last Friday, Dimitri shot only once.  She converted a critical three point shot in the fourth quarter that allowed Stanford to hold on to the tie in regulation.   

Last weekend, however, it was not Dimitri who got the most minutes off the bench.  Freshman Courtney Ogden averaged 21 minutes of play against the Washington schools.  She scored 11 critical points against the Huskies, playing the entire overtime.  With 6 seconds on the clock and holding a slim 2-point lead, Stanford was having difficulties inbounding the ball.  Ogden broke free of her defender to take an inbound pass and convert a contested layup.  With just 5 seconds left, the Huskies could not convert, ensuring the Stanford win. 

Against Washington State two days later, Ogden once again played the most minutes off the bench (19 minutes), making both of her shot attempts (including a three-pointer) and pulling down three boards.  One reason that Ogden is winning this floor time is her solid defense and steadiness under pressure (a 1.3 assist to turnover ratio).  Ogden has learned to let the game come to her and is developing into a valuable crunch-time player. 

Other players have gained the trust of the coaches and earn minutes during critical moments.  After Demetri, Jzaniya Harriel is the highest scoring bench player in conference play.  She is averaging 4.2 points per game while playing defense and shooting 55% from the three-point line.  Nunu Agara is close behind, averaging 4.1 points in conference play.  Agara is most often a replacement for interior standouts Brink and Iriafen.  In the last six games, those two players have largely avoided foul trouble, limiting Agara’s time on the floor.  In conference play, Agara is converting her shots at a 56.8% clip. 

That leaves Chloe Clardy, averaging just 6.8 minutes since conference play began.  That understates her value as a ball handler and assist maker. When Arizona’s pressing guards were disrupting Stanford’s offensive flow, Clardy came in to steady things, scoring 6 points and dishing out 4 assists in 21 minutes of floor time. 

Meanwhile, during the last six games, the MVP award goes to Cameron Brink, who has avoided foul trouble while playing an average of 32.8 minutes, scoring 21 points and hauling in 15 boards per game.  Those numbers don’t adequately describe Brink’s value to the team.  Brink had 28 blocks during the six games, with countless other shots altered or not taken because of Brink’s presence in the game.  That's why Brink is a serious candidate for a league or national MVP award.  

    

Positives From a Weekend Split: WAT-KIN-S-top A Player Like That?

 

Warren Grimes

JuJu Watkins is an amazing player-- the best USC has ever had.  She is more versatile and has more finesse than either Lisa Leslie or Tina Thompson.  She is a wonderful point guard who can battle with the bigs on the inside.  Quite simply a phenom who can shoot inside and out, block, defend, board, and assist.  She emphatically documented this by scoring 51 points against Stanford, a national best for the year.  As a freshman, she is well positioned to be the conference player of the year. 

The disappearing Pac-12 has had some fantastic players, including Washington’s Kelsey Plum and Oregon’s Sabrina Ionescu.  If I get to choose first, it’s an easy choice:  I’ll take Juju Watkins any day of the week.    

Watkins scored all but 16 of USC’s 67 points in the upset win over Stanford on Friday night.  Stanford still won the interior battle:  Brink had 19 points and 15 boards; Iriafen had 16 points and 9 boards.  But both shot poorly – their collective 31% is well below either player’s average.  USC played tough on the inside, in the process fouling out 3 of its interior players.  They had enough, however, to disrupt Stanford’s offense and limit the team to 58 points on 31.6% shooting. 

The game was a disappointment because, Watkins notwithstanding, a team that exploited USC’s defensive choices could have prevailed.  On any given day, USC can challenge anyone.  But a team that relies so heavily on one player is vulnerable when the star has an off day.  We’ll see.

Would Stanford be able to bounce back against number-7 ranked UCLA?  Any doubt seemed resolved when Stanford converted its first six shots.  The team never looked back.  Stanford more than doubled its shooting percentage from the previous game – from 31.6% to 63.5% - the best percentage in a decade.   37 of those points came from Brink and Iriafen, but contributions came from Jump (10) and four other players with 5 or more points.  There were 17 turnovers, always an issue when playing UCLA, but Stanford compensated by blocking 10 UCLA attempts and outrebounding the Bruins 43 to 29.

UCLA played without its pivotal inside player Lauren Betts and missed a bunch of other talented bigs.  Emily Bessoir, a 6 -4 big who can shoot the three, is injured and will miss the entire season.   Izzy Anstey,  6 -4, was also out for medical reasons.  Lina Sontag, 6 -3 and from Germany, started against Cal but left before the Stanford game to join the national team for Olympic try outs.  That left Angela Dugalic, also 6-4 but relatively inexperienced.  She scored 6 points in 22 minutes on the floor (and now leaves for Serbia to play with the Serbian national team). UCLA has superior guards but is quite unexpectedly short of tall talent.  The Bruins desperately need Betts to come back, or at least for Olympic try outs to end.

Stanford is still favorably positioned to win the conference.  They are tied with Colorado, each with two losses.  But Colorado will face Utah, UCLA, and USC, all on the road.  Stanford’s toughest road game, at least on paper, is against Oregon State.  Of course, as VanDerveer constantly reminds her team, any conference team can knock you down.

Brink now has four consecutive games with 15 plus points and 15 plus boards.  Even more critical for the defense, Brink had 15 blocks in the two weekend games.  Her 3.6 block average for conference games makes it easier for Stanford to focus on perimeter defense.  It’s no surprise that Stanford is 1^st in the conference in three-point conversions allowed and second in conference percentage field goal defense.  Brink makes any opponent rethink their offense.  Meanwhile, no Stanford opponent has been able to stop Kiki Iriafen.  The two players make one another better.  Stanford is first in the conference in rebounding margin. 

For Stanford to improve further, the perimeter players must add to the offensive diversity of this team. More than anything else, to win, Stanford must maintain focus and intensity for every minute in every single matchup.

Stanford's Nice Place in a Wonderfully Chaotic Conference

 

Warren Grimes

The women's hoops Pac-12 season, now at the halfway point, is wonderfully chaotic.  The preseason rankings are already a misfire; bottom half teams are winning games against top teams (as in Washington and Washington State’s victories in Southern California last weekend); and the quality of basketball, although uneven, is very high. 

Stanford, picked to finish third, leads the conference with an 8-1 record.  Colorado, picked to finish fourth, is in second place with a 7-2 record.  Oregon State, picked to finish tenth, is in third place with just three losses.  Meanwhile, Utah, picked to finish first, has four losses. while UCLA, picked to finish second, has three losses. 

Injuries and health have had an impact.  Utah lost its best three-point shooter and (for a time) a starting point guard.  UCLA has played its last couple of games without Lauren Betts.  And Arizona and Washington State have lost key players for at least a few games.  Stanford (fingers crossed) lost Cameron Brink for most of a two-game weekend but has been relatively unaffected. 

The wonderful chaos will continue this weekend as the Southern California schools visit Maples in key matchups.  With Stanford’s rise to the top of the standings comes extra motivation for opponents.   Expect USC and UCLA to bring their very best games to Maples on Friday and Sunday.

Having lost two #1-ranked high school recruits (Haley Jones and Lauren Betts) as well as Fran Belibi, Ashten Prechtel, Indya Nivar, and Agnes Emma Nnopu, there is no wonder that the media did not make Stanford the favorite for this season.  The three transferring players are starters for their new teams (Betts for UCLA, Emma-Nnopu for TCU, and Indya Nivar for North Carolina).

Stanford is exceeding preseason expectations for several reasons, mostly named Kiki Iriafen and Talana Lepolo.  Both players continue to improve as the season progresses. In the nine conference games played so far, Iriafen has assumed the role as the team’s highest scoring player, averaging 22.6 per game and shooting at a team-leading 52.6% clip.  She is tied with Brink in rebounding, averaging 12.4 per game.  And she’s converting 87.5% of her free throws.   A small part of Iriafen’s success can be attributed to being in the game while Cameron Brink is distracting defenses.  If you believe that Iriafen is leaning on Brink, however, consider the Oregon State game where Iriafen scored a career high 34 points while an injured Brink sat on the bench.

In the nine conference games, Lepolo has also moved beyond her earlier performances.  For the entire season, Lepolo’s three-point conversion rate is an excellent 42%.  But since conference games began, Lepolo has converted 17 of 30 three-point attempts for an amazing 56.7% rate.  Her assist to turnover rate is 2.77 for the entire season but is 3.06 in conference play. 

Iriafen and Lepolo are not the only players who have improved.  Coming off the bench, Jzaniya Harriel has made 9 of 16 three-point attempts (56.3 %) and substantially leads the team in steals per minute.  In the Arizona game, Chloe Clardy came off the bench for 21 minutes to score 6 points, get 4 assists and 2 steals to steady the team against Arizona’s aggressive and theft-oriented defense.  Brooke Demetre remains the first player off the bench and scores field goals at a 47.3% clip while maintaining an impressive 2 to 1 assist to turnover ratio.  Both Nunu Agara and Courtney Ogden continue to contribute, playing 10 plus minutes per game.

During all of this, Cameron Brink continues her leadership and statistical dominance in many areas.  Since the conference games began, Iriafen has scored more points than Brink (.74 points per minute compared to Brink’s .67 points per minute) and has a higher conversion precentage (52.6% versus Brink’s 47.9%).  But Brink continues to lead the team in other ways.  Brink is number one in free throws (93%) and in blocks (4 times as many blocks per minute as Iriafen).  In rebounds, Brink has .55 per minute compared to Iriafen’s .41 per minute.  And Brink gets more assists per minute (.099) than Iriafen (.067).

Together, Brink and Iriafen are a formidable duo.  Last weekend in games against the Arizona schools, they scored 53% of Stanford’s points and grabbed 60% of Stanford’s rebounds.  May that pattern continue.

What's Next: Thoughts on Tara VanDerveer's Coaching Strategies

 

Warren Grimes

En route to Coach VanDerveer’s record breaking total wins, Stanford dominated Oregon 88 to 63 and, playing without Cameron Brink, fought to a 65 to 56 victory over Oregon State.

Two players stood out in these victories.  Kiki Iriafen had a phenomenal weekend, scoring 21 points with 15 boards against Oregon and a career high 36 points with 12 rebounds against Oregon State.   To put things in perspective, Iriafen scored over 55% of the team’s points in the pivotal game against Oregon State.  She did that despite the absence of Brink, allowing both opponents to focus on defending Iriafen.    She did that despite being guarded by players who were as tall as or taller than she was.  She did that by converting many shots from the outside including her first two ever three-pointers against OSU. 

The second highest scorer in both games was Talana Lepolo, who averaged 13.5 for the two games.  Stanford’s point guard was 5 for 9 (55%) from distance and had 14 assists with an amazing 7 to 1 assist/turnover ratio.   

Both players did what was needed at critical points.  Other players stepped up as well, with Brooke Demetre starting her first game ever (against OSU) and contributing 10 points in each of the matchups.  Jzaniya Harriel came off the bench to score 2 three pointers against Oregon; against OSU, Harriel had 3 steals that took the wind out of OSU’s second-half attempted comeback.     

Coaches don’t play the game, but they deserve credit for teaching and motivating their players to perform at their best.  Tara VanDerveer has been doing that for almost half a century.  She started when she was 24 years old and, at 70, she’s still going strong.  Hard work, dedication, and love of her players are part of the formula. 

A coach’s record of past wins is, in some ways, an overrated statistic.  Van Derveer lives for the present and thinks of the future.  Dwelling on the past is a guaranteed pass to oblivion.  Fans and athletic administrators want performance now and, while respecting the past, won’t tolerate a coach who can’t bring the Ws.  The reason for VanDerveer’s impressive victory chain is that she is focused on the now.

No matter how talented a coach and how gifted the players, injuries occur.  Utah has learned that the hard way, losing three early season conference games after losing its best three-point shooter and, at least in the short term, its starting point guard.  The loss of Cameron Brink early in the Oregon game and for the entire OSU game could have changed results.  Other injuries are likely among the key Pac-12 teams and could affect who wins the conference. 

Coaches can’t stop injuries.  Coaches do have some control, however, over defensive strategies and physicality.  A team such as Colorado plays in-your-face defense and generates turnovers, often leading to uncontested lay ups.  Watching Colorado over the past decade, that team has a reputation for starting fast and strong but losing some of its momentum toward season’s end.  Will that be true this season?  Colorado’s Jaylyn Sherod had 4 steals in Colorado’s victory over Stanford, but her physicality probably does raise risks of injury to her and to opposing teams.  Will Sherod and her teammates be fit and motivated at season’s end?   

Injuries may be a wildcard in basketball, but a coach who emphasizes positional defense over in-your-face physicality may have a better chance of keeping players healthy over a long season. 

The hoopla over total coaching wins is over.  With some uncertainty over Brink’s return and the continued fitness of other players, Stanford’s quest for a conference title continues, one game at a time.

The Mountain Schools Road Trip: What Can Stanford Learn?

Warren Grimes

Stanford returned from what on paper should be its roughest road trip of the season with one victory and one loss. 

Stanford hung on to defeat Utah 66-64.  Utah was the preseason selection for #1 and is the best three-point shooting team in the conference.  Against Stanford, Utah played without its best three-point shooter and without its starting point guard.   Still, Utah made things tough, shooting 40.6% from distance.  The game was tied 7 times until Stanford took the lead in the second quarter.  Utah rallied in the fourth and the game went down to the wire.  Kiki Iriafen led Stanford with 25 points and 16 boards.

In Boulder, Stanford could not overcome Colorado’s aggressive focus and lost 71-59.  Particularly harmful was Colorado’s 22-11 third quarter point margin.  Colorado’s aggressive and physical defense disrupted the Stanford offense with 11 steals and 28 points off 18 Stanford turnovers.  Kiki Iriafen was once again Stanford’s leader with 19 points and 19 rebounds.  Stanford won the rebounding battle and shot 100% from the charity stripe, but too few fouls were called against Colorado’s physical defense. 

Colorado is now the only undefeated team in the conference, while Stanford, UCLA, and USC have one defeat each.  Utah, the preseason favorite, now has 3 losses and sits in sixth place behind Oregon State’s two losses.  Next weekend should be interesting with the LA schools visiting Colorado and Utah.  Colorado’s road to the championship remains a challenge, with 2 games each against UCLA and USC.

So what lessons can Stanford learn from the weekend? 

Let’s begin with Cameron Brink, who remains critical to the team’s offense and defense.  Brink got into first half foul trouble in both mountain games, playing just 27 minutes against Utah and 24 minutes against Colorado.  In four conference games, Brink is averaging just 24 minutes and 12.5 points.  Her fouling ways are not just due to defensive blocks – Brink has learned how to swat shots while minimizing physical contact.  Instead, in recent games, offensive fouls have put Brink on the bench.  Opponents have learned to step in front of Brink’s post moves, generating offensive fouls.  Against Utah, in a questionable call, Brink drew another offensive foul for setting up a screen.  With the proper focus, Brink’s first half game strategy should be able to minimize physical contact on offense, at least until the team has a sense of how the referees are calling the game.  Brink has fall back jumpers or other interior moves that are less likely to generate fouls.

Talana Lepolo, who had put up lots of points in earlier conference games, scored only 4 points against Utah and 2 points against Colorado.  On multiple occasions, Lepolo would dribble into the key, see a clogged middle, then dripple out again.  If Lepolo could make the pull up jumper part of her arsenal, she could score more points and perhaps unclog the middle for an assist to an interior player.

Turnovers in the back court are particularly harmful because they often generate uncontested layups by an opponent.  That happened too often against Colorado.  A pass to the interior may be stolen or go out of bounds but would be less likely to facilitate an opponent’s fast break offense.

Jzaniya Harriel has seen more minutes since the conference games began, and for good reason. In four conference games, she’s 5-8 (62.5%) from distance.  Harriel could be even more valuable if she demonstrates creativity off the dribble, perhaps a pull up jumper. 

Indeed, can anyone hit a pull up jumper?  This is one area in which Haley Jones is sorely missed.  Against a team like Colorado, a bit more creativity could enhance Stanford’s offense.  Iriafen’s fall back shots have become a critical part of the offense and explain why she has been the team’s leading scorer since conference play began.

The team will have extra motivation this weekend to put Coach VanDerveer atop the list of all-time winningest coaches.  But a steady focus will be required for every single upcoming conference game.  It’s going to be a brutal season with the conference winner likely, my hunch, to have 2 or more conference losses.

Little Things from a Deep Roster – A Winning Formula

Opposing coaches know about Stanford’s top three scorers: Cameron Brink, Kiki Iriafen and Hannah Jump.  If these are the only defensive challenges that Stanford poses, Stanford could still win against lesser opponents, but it would lose many a game against top-ranked opponents.  When Brink and/or Iriafen are on the bench, someone else must step up to provide the points.  And Stanford’s defense loses a great deal.  Indeed, the lack of credible interior defense played a role in the loss to Gonzaga when Brink and Iriafen played only a combined 35 minutes.  

 

The loss against Gonzaga and the win against Cal presents an interesting contrast.  In both road games, Stanford scored 78 points, losing to Gonzaga by 18 points and defeating Cal by 27 points.  The defensive difference is striking.  Gonzaga managed 98 points against Stanford, almost twice Cal’s 51 points.  To be sure, Gonzaga’s offensive potential was doubtless greater (Gonzaga shot three balls at a 41.7% clip while Cal was a miserable 12.9% from distance).  Still, Stanford’ perimeter defense is better when Brink and/or Iriafen can guard the interior.   For more than half of the 80 minutes against Cal, Brink, Iriafen, or both were in the game.

 

On offense, Stanford must threaten with a more diversified scoring.  To achieve this, starters such as Elena Boscana and Talana Lepolo must command the defense’s attention.  Players off the bench such as Brooke Demetre, Nunu Agara, Courtney Ogden, Jzaniya Harriel, and Chloe Clardy must be offensive threats.

Below, I take a look at each of these seven players who can make a difference, each of them averaging 12 minutes or more per game.  I begin with the two starters, Lepolo and Boscana.

 

Talana Lepolo is averaging 25.6 minutes per game, second only to Hannah Jump’s 31.8 minutes.  She leads the team in assists with a commendable 2.26 assist to turnover ratio.  With a modest 5.3 points per game, she is only the team’s seventh highest scoring player despite her many minutes.    

But consider this.  Lepolo scored a team and career high 20 points against Cal, going 6 for 10 from the three-point line.  In the previous game against UC Davis, Lepolo made both of her three-point shots.  When left unguarded on the perimeter, it is critical that Lepolo make the opponent pay – and she did exactly that against Cal.  If opponents continue to pack the interior, Lepolo will get lots more chances.

 

Elena Boscana is fearless in driving the basket or in taking the outside shot.  She is just below 30% from the three-point line.  She is a much-improved rebounder, averaging 5.7 boards per game.   She gets assists on offense and steals on defense.  Boscana is a substantial contributor to the offensive and defensive balance that the team needs.

 

Nunu Agara is one of the first players off the bench and rightly so.  She is the team’s number four scorer (8.8 points per game).  She drives the basket strongly and creatively and draws fouls (second only to Brink in foul shot attempts).  At the line, she is 92.5%, second only to Brink’s 94.4%.  The two players’ combination of drawing the fouls and converting the shots makes Stanford the top foul-shooting team in the conference.  Agara also battles inside and averages 4.1 boards per game.

 

Brooke Demetre gets more minutes than any other bench player and averages more minutes than Boscana.  She is an interior player with a shooter’s touch, averaging 32.4% from distance.  Against Cal, she drained a three from the parking lot in the last seconds of the first quarter.  She is an assist leader and an improving rebounder as she has moved to playing post positions.  She needs to continue to shoot from inside and out.

 

Courtney Ogden is the team’s top-ranked freshman recruit and showing it with a 33% three-point shooting rate.  She is a team player and contributes assists on offense and steals on defense.  She made  13 points in the Gonzaga loss.   After missing two recent games (injury related), Ogden is on a track to success.

  

Jzaniya Harriel also missed two recent games but has shown a shooter’s touch from the distance (38.7%) and a defensive mindset, leading the team with 10 steals while averaging only 12.6 minutes per game.  She has demonstrated her value on court.

 

Chloe Clardy is the last of the three promising freshman.  Her outside shooting could improve, but Clardy does not hesitate to drive the basket.  Her quickness on both ends of the court is an asset, with 17 assists and 16 defensive boards. 

 

One or more of these seven players could make Stanford’s season.

After Gonzaga - What Next?

 

Evening talk-show host Jimmy Kimmel has repeatedly joked that Gonzaga doesn’t exist.  The Stanford women’s basketball team knows better. 

With a commanding physical presence, the Zags decisively bested then number 3 Stanford 96-78 on an early December Sunday afternoon.  When was the last time anyone scored 96 points against Stanford?  When was the last time anyone scored 32 points on Stanford in a single quarter?

The Zags did both of those things, adding 44 points in the paint (compared to Stanford’s 34) and an overall 31-29 rebounding advantage.  Gonzaga used motivation, sound preparation, and talent to play its best game of the season.

Stanford now goes on a break to focus on final exams, with its next games at home against Portland and UC Davis before the Christmas holiday.  In the meantime, the team must take what it can from this loss and regroup for the conference season.

Maybe it won’t take that much.  There were extenuating circumstances associated with the loss to Gonzaga.  Cameron Brink was ill and played only 11 minutes.  Her post mate Kiki Iriafen got in foul trouble and played only 24 minutes.  Iriafen picked up her fourth foul early in the third quarter and had to watch from the bench as the Zags outscored Stanford 32-16 in that quarter.  With the Zags holding a 20-point lead, Iriafen returned to play most of the fourth quarter but the team could reduce the margin by only 2 points.

Viewing the contest on video, my impression was that Stanford’s defensive game plan fell apart in the third quarter.  With both Brink and Iriafen out, the Zags started getting productive in the interior.  Stanford tried to bolster interior defense but, in the process, left more three-point shooters open (the Zags were deadly from inside (62%) and outside (56%) during their third quarter blitz.  If one leaves out the third quarter, the game was closely contested and could have been won by either team.

So what’s to be done about the defensive collapse?  Iriafen has run into foul trouble twice in recent games and should learn from this game the importance of staying on the floor.  Still, during a long season, there are sure to be other games in which both Brink and Iriafen have to sit for more than a few minutes.   Their substitutes, primarily Brooke Demetre and Nunu Agara, have to learn what they can about defending against strong post players.  Rebounding from these subs could also improve.  The team should prepare for a help defense that still leaves the opponent’s primary three-point shooters closely guarded. 

Stanford’s offensive performance showed promise even with Brink (and often Iriafen) not on the floor.  The three top scorers (each with 13 points) were Hannah Jump and freshmen Nunu Agara and Courtney Ogden.  Ogden was 3-6 from distance.  Brooke Demetre was 2-3.  Stanford shot threes at a 45% clip, adding 27 points to its 78-point total.  In the interior, Stanford suffered on the boards and clearly missed the scoring dominance that Brink and Iriafen typically bring.  The team’s two other shortcomings were the 53% shooting from the foul line and the 16 turnovers (the Zags had only 7).

Leaving aside neutral court games, Stanford is 1 for 2 in away games.  The road percentage must improve if Stanford is to contest the conference championship.  Despite the disappointing loss to Gonzaga, Stanford still has the talent, chemistry and motivation to win every game it plays and contest for the conference championship.    

A Great Team in the Making? Chemistry and Intensity

 

  Warren Grimes

After scoring a mere 87 points against unranked Hawaii, Stanford put up 96 against 9^th ranked Indiana.  Indiana coach Teri Moren described Stanford as “terrific.”  Maybe she was right. 

Indiana met Stanford at Maples on a Sunday mid-November afternoon.  Stanford looked like a formidable final four team.  Indiana scored 64 points but trailed massively early on, with Stanford holding a 54-26 lead at the end of the first half.  The final margin of victory was 32 points.

Indiana is a very good team, likely to compete for a big-10 championship, but Stanford brought intensive defense and unselfish inside-outside play on offense that the Hoosiers could not match.  Is Stanford better than last year?  A bit early to say, but things are looking pretty good.

The loss of All American Haley Jones was big, but that loss is being offset.  This year’s team brings an intangible team chemistry, led by leaders like Cameron Brink.   Brink, and others, bring experience, intensity, and unselfish team play.  In addition to chemistry, there are at least two other notable strengths to this team that contribute to its inside-outside dominance.  First, the returning veterans are improved.  Second, the three freshmen, led by Nunu Agara, are impressive. 

Kiki Iriafen’s improvement, while perhaps expected, is noteworthy.  Last year, Iriafen averaged 6.7 points and 3.8 boards per game.  This year, after two games, the average is 21.5 points and 12 boards.  Last year, Iriafen shared a lot of minutes with Lauren Betts, but the combined total of those two players was 12 points and 7.3 boards.  I expect Iriafen’s totals will moderate as the season progresses, but she is now a part of the best post duo in the conference.  I expect double-doubles will be frequent in Iriafen’s junior season.

The other half of that duo is All American Cameron Brink.  Brink has benefitted from playing 3 on 3 basketball over the past Summer.  Her post moves are quicker than ever, and she has hit 2 of her 4 three-point attempts so far.  She leads the team in boards with 12.5 per game despite playing an average of just 22.5 minutes so far.  Against Indiana, she had 20 points, 17 boards, and 4 blocks (2 against Indiana’s All American center Mackenzie Holmes).  Stretching back to last season, Brink has made over 50 consecutive free throws, and she gets lots of opportunities.

Other starters are also showing improvement.   Fifth year senior Hannah Jump leads the team in minutes played and has converted three-point shots at a 50% rate.  She seems more active in give and go moves, scoring six of her nine baskets inside the three-point line.  Elena Bosgana has started two games and is averaging 10 points per game on a combination of threes and interior moves.

Starting point guard Talana Lepolo continues with major minutes as a ball handler (and swishing 2 of 3 three-point attempts against Indiana).

I’ve not mentioned Brooke Demetre, who once again with her steadiness and outside shooting may lead the team in minutes off the bench.  She can help out in the post positions, as she did late-game against Indiana.

Jzaniya Harriel is a veteran guard also likely to get more minutes this season.  Harriel is averaging 15 minutes and 3 points per game so far. 

Now let’s talk about the freshmen, starting with Nunu Agara.  The preseason hype on 6’2” Agara was that she could play the shooting guard position well and help elsewhere.  That was an understatement, particularly with respect to her inside game.  So far, Agara is averaging 15.5 points (second highest on the team) and 5 boards in an average of just 18 minutes per game.  Wow!  Agara turns out to be quick, strong, and creative on the inside.  She can also shoot from distance (1 for 2 so far).  Although not the highest ranked of the three incoming freshmen (Agara was ranked no. 37 by ESPN Hoopgurlz), she may get more minutes (and a starting assignment) more quickly than her classmates.  Her teammate Cameron Brink says Agara can play any of the 1-5 positions.

Courtney Ogden, ranked no. 10 by Hoopgurlz, is a shooter, but at 6’1” also someone who can battle inside. Ogden is averaging 13 minutes and 3.5 points.  I see an upward curve for Ogden as she adjusts to the faster collegiate game. 

Chloe Clardy, a guard ranked no. 39 by Hoopgurlz, has a great handle and three-point shooting skills, also averaging 3.5 points in just under 13 minutes.  She can play the point and shoot the three (3-8).  Her future looks bright.

The chemistry seems exceptional.  The players play with intensity and support for one another.  The future looks bright for a team that has superior inside-outside potential.   

New Season Optimism: How Much?

Warren Grimes

Best Year Ever!

That’s the slogan for this year’s Stanford women’s basketball team in the final year of Pac-12 play.

Can that happen?  Here are two takes on the prospects for this year’s team.  The first lists some reasons why optimism should be guarded.   The second examines why the team could substantially outperform its preseason ranking of 15 (AP poll).

Reasons for Guarded Optimism

Stanford has lost versatile All-American Haley Jones.   A point forward who could lead the fast break, Jones led the team in assists and steals; she was a close second to Cameron Brink in points and rebounds.  She was a go-to player able to create her own shot in a crowded interior.. 

Jones was one of two #1 ranked high school recruits that left the team.  The other was promising post Lauren Betts, who transferred to UCLA.  Another transfer loss was Indya Nivar, an athletic and versatile guard who left to play at North Carolina.

The loss of Betts, Ashten Prechtel and Jones means Stanford has lost depth and rebounding in the post positions.  Once the conference’s leader in post depth, Stanford is now a bit thin in these positions.

Meanwhile, the road to a conference championship is as difficult as it’s ever been.  The conference’s top five rivals for Stanford have maintained a solid roster or even improved (UCLA being a primary example).  UCLA and Utah are ranked #4 and #5 in the preseason AP poll and three more Pac-12 teams are ranked behind Stanford in the top 25 (Colorado, USC and WSU).  Arizona, Oregon, and Washington also received votes.

Reasons Stanford May Exceed Expectations

Stanford brings back four of its five starters from last year.  Those four, and other veterans, will be better, more experienced players. Cameron Brink and Kiki Iriafen are probably the best four-five combination in the conference.  Brink is a candidate for the Naismith award.  Iriafen is an improving strong and athletic post player with solid moves and rebounding skills.  In addition, Hanna Jump, who has improved every year, will be back as a three-point shooting guard as good as any in the conference. 

Talana Lepola also returns as the team’s starting guard with a good handle and an excellent 2:1 assist/turnover ratio.  Lepola can increase the team's offensive diversity if she asserts herself from the three-point line. 

To replace Jones, there are several prospects, including veteran Elena Boscana.  Last year, Boscana shot at a 44% clip overall and 32% from distance.   Her defense is improving, and she can create shots.  Against Dominican, Boscana started and scored 19 points, including 2-4 from distance.  Three-point shooting is a skill that Jones did not demonstrate in her last year at Stanford.  If Jones’ replacement is a three-point threat, this could help open up the inside.    

Last season, Brooke Demetre had more minutes off the bench than any other Stanford player.  Demetre may or may not start, but she is destined again for major minutes.  She is steady, with 2:1 assist-turnover ratio, and can shoot from the outside (33% last year).  Against Dominican, Demetre had an off night shooting but pulled down 12 boards in 21 minutes on the floor.  Expect Demetre to be playing the post positions much more than last year when she was used mostly on the perimeter.  A post player who can shoot from the outside is always a major plus. 

In conference play, Stanford could also benefit from scheduling.  This season, Stanford plays only a single game against four of its top-five ranked opponents.  Stanford has only one home game each against UCLA and USC and only one away game each against Utah and Colorado.

The Role of the Three Freshmen

Its risky to draw too many conclusions from the exhibition game against overmatched Dominican, but the 126 point-performance is a positive.  With Elena Boscana in the starting lineup along with last year’s starters, that group scored 66 points while averaging just over 16 minutes each on the floor.  The group was scoring at .80 points per player per minute.  Not to be forgotten, Stanford’s three freshmen (Nuna Agara, Courtney Ogden, and Chloe Clardy) came off the bench for an average of just over 17 minutes each and contributed 40 points (or .78 points per player per minute).   That's exciting.  The full  story of these freshmen has yet to be written, but all seem destined for major minutes.  Ogden added 10 boards and 2 assists to her 16-point total, all in just 14 minutes on the floor.  Ogden’s ability to score inside and out while rebounding well makes her another promising replacement for Haley Jones. 

We will know more in two weeks, after four more games in a two week period, including one against higher ranked Indiana and another against highly respected Duke.

I'm excited.