January 19, 2011

Top three meet in Maples

The top three contenders for the Pac-10 title are playing this weekend. Aren't you glad it's happening at Maples?
  • UCLA comes on Thursday at 7:00.
  • USC comes on Saturday at 2:00.

This is how the top three match up statistically:

Points per game 79.6 68.2 68.7
Scoring margin +23.6 +14.9 +4.9
Field goal % 0.495 0.452 0.388
3-pointers per game 6.4 1.6 6.3
3-point % 0.374 0.271 0.366
Free throw % 0.746 0.626 0.696
Rebounds per game 43.9 37.8 42.5
Rebounding margin +10.8 +7.4 +2.3
Assists per game 17.4 16.1 13.1
Turnovers per game 14.4 16.9 16.0
Assist/turnover ratio 1.21 0.96 0.82
Steals per game 7.3 14.8 7.9
Blocks per game 3.7 2.4 3.5
Win-loss record 14-2, 5-0 15-1, 5-0 12-4, 4-1
Rank #4/4 #8/8 ---
RPI 3 11 30
Schedule strength 1 36 13

UCLA Bruins

Third-year coach Nikki Caldwell, last season's Pac-10 Coach of the Year, has high expectations for her team, which returned all five starters from last season.

The Bruins are meeting those expectations. They have been ranked in the Top 25 all season and have risen to #8/8 this week. They have lost just one game – by two points to LSU at home. They could have won that one too, but missed several scoring chances in the last few seconds. Perhaps they were too laid back after two easy wins in Hawaii.

They had a fairly competitive non-conference schedule that included one ranked team (Notre Dame). Their win-loss record (15-1 overall, 5-0 conference) places them 1st in the Pac-10, their RPI (11) places them 2nd, and their strength of schedule (36) places them 6th.

The Bruins are an interesting team. They lack some of the elements that most successful teams have – no big post presence, no 3-point shooters, no super scorers. They rank #5 in the Pac-10 in scoring (68.2 points per game), #9 in 3-point percentage, #10 in 3-pointers per game and #7 in free-throw percentage.

What they do have is a very athletic, aggressive defense that seriously impedes their opponents' offense. They allow the fewest points (53.3) and the fewest rebounds (30.4) of any Pac-10 team. They have the most steals – almost 15 per game, which is third-best in the nation. They have about 17 turnovers per game, while their opponents have 25; the margin is the fourth-best in the nation.

The probable starters are:

  • #21, 5'10" senior guard Doreena Campbell dishes out almost four assists per game and has a good assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.4. She is the Bruin's third-best scorer with 9.9 points per game.

  • #33, 6'0" junior forward Jasmine Dixon is the top rebounder with 6.5 per game and the tied-for-top scorer with 11.6 points per game. She's had four double-doubles this season. She is the third Pac-10 player named to the midseason Wooden Award watch list.

  • #3, 5'8" senior guard Darxia Morris is the other tied-for-top scorer with 11.6 points per game and the best thief (2.4 steals per game).

  • #11, 5'11" redshirt sophomore guard/forward Atonye Nyingifa averages 8.5 points and 4.9 rebounds per game.

  • #23, 6'1" sophomore forward Markel Walker averages 9.0 points and 5.4 rebounds per game.
Almost all the Bruins are adept ball thieves. The five starters make from 1.6 to 2.4 steals per game for a total of about 10 and the reserves chip in with five more.

The Bruins don't rely on size. They do have two 6'4" reserves – senior Christina Nzekwe and freshman Corinne Costa, who combined play 22 minutes per game and contribute 5.3 rebounds and 5.5 points.

Here are UCLA's 2010-11 statistics and their roster.

USC Trojans

Things are looking good for the Trojans this season as they battle to return to the NCAA Tournament after an absence of four years. They returned three starters, Briana Gilbreath, Ashley Corral and Kari LaPlante, who were joined by a nationally ranked recruiting class and by Jackie Gemelos who sat out three seasons with ACLs before returning to play last season.

The injury demons, which plagued them for so long, have moved on. Although they do have one injured player just now — Stefanie Gilbreath (Briana's big sister). She finally got to play this season after three ACL's but has missed the last eight games due to a stress fracture in her foot. It is healing and she is expected to return soon, but will not play this weekend.

The Trojans have done well with a very competitive schedule. Three of their four losses were away games with ranked teams Duke, Xavier and UCLA. They played and defeated a fourth ranked team — Georgia. Their win-loss record (12-4 overall, 4-1 conference) places them 3rd in the Pac-10, their RPI (30) places them 3rd, and their strength of schedule (13) places them 3rd.

One thing the Trojans still lack is fan support. The average attendance at the Galen Center this season is 538. It's interesting that home court advantage applies even in a virtually empty arena. The Trojans are 7-0 at home.

The probable starters are:

  • #15, 6'1" junior guard Briana Gilbreath, who was Pac-10 Freshman of the Year in 2009 and Pac-10 Co-Defensive Player of the Year last season, is having another brilliant season. She leads the team in points (14.8), steals (2.4) and blocks (1.3) per game. She is the second-best rebounder at 7.9 per game (reserve Christina Marinacci is first with 8.1)

  • #24, 5'9" junior guard Ashley Corral is USC's second best scorer (12.9 points per game) and their most prolific 3-point shooter (2.3 per game at a rate of 30%). She makes almost four assists per game and not quite as many turnovers; her assist-to-turnover ratio is 1.09.

  • #23, 6'0" redshirt senior guard Jacki Gemelos is fully recovered from her three ACL injuries and playing her first complete collegiate season. She averages 11.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, 1.6 steals and 2.6 assists per game. She is USC's most accurate 3-point shooter; she averages 1.5 per game at a rate of 42%.

  • #11, 6'2" freshman forward Cassie Harberts averages 8.8 points and 6.3 rebounds per game.

  • #13, 6'5" senior center Kari LaPlante is USC's go-to player in the post. She averages 4.9 points and 5.5 rebounds per game.
Here are USC's 2010-11 statistics and their roster.

1 comment:

AndrÄ— said...

As always, thanks for putting this all together, Marian. I've been looking at each school separately, but having the info all in one place is extremely helpful. Go Cardinal!