March 15, 2012

The march to Denver begins in Norfolk

Here is how the teams that will play rounds 1 and 2 in Norfolk match up:
Stanford Hampton West Virginia Texas
Points per game 76.9 65.7 63.9 67.7
Scoring margin +22.2 +18.9 +12.6 +5.2
Field goal % 0.455 0.371 0.401 0.405
3-pointers per game 5.4 6.6 4.5 5.0
3-point % 0.310 0.330 0.296 0.338
Free throw % 0.767 0.737 0.672 0.696
Rebounds per game 44.6 42.5 42.4 40.6
Rebounding margin +10.8 +6.8 +8.7 +1.5
Assists per game 16.7 12.7 13.7 13.8
Turnovers per game 12.8 13.8 17.9 16.6
Assist/turnover ratio 1.30 0.92 0.76 0.83
Steals per game 6.8 10.3 9.3 9.3
Blocks per game 4.6 4.2 4.5 6.1
Win-loss record 31-1. 18-0 26-4, 15-1 23-9, 11-5 18-13, 8-10
RPI 2 62 39 54
Schedule strength 10 290 53 21

West Virginia and Texas will meet for the first time in the "other game" in Norfolk. Doug Feinberg, AP sports writer, predicts, "The Mountaineers tough-nosed defense will get them the win."

  Hampton Lady Pirates

The game in Norfolk will be the first meeting between Stanford and Hampton. It will be the Lady Pirates' sixth appearance at the Big Dance. They've not yet advanced past round 1, although they took #4 Kentucky into overtime in the first round last season. They earned their spot by winning the Mid-East Athletic Conference (MEAC) tournament.

The Lady Pirates may be a tougher opponent than expected of a low-ranked seed. Their RPI (62) is at least 20 points better than any of the other #15 or #16 seeds, and they feel seriously dissed by the selection committee. The Hampton athletic department sent a letter to the selection committee, expressing the school's disappointment.

This is essentially a home game for the Lady Pirates – Norfolk is only a 35-minute drive away. More than 500 of their fans are expected to be on hand.

Stingy defense is the key to victory for the Lady Pirates. They allow their opponents to make just 20.3% of their three-point attempts (best in the nation) and hold them to 46.8 points per game (second-best in the nation) at a rate of 32.3% (third-best in the nation).

The Lady Pirates are a mature, experienced team with five seniors and five juniors. They rely mostly on a seven-player rotation — the five starters listed below plus senior forward Melanie Warner and sophomore guard Nicole Hamilton.

Here are Hampton's 2011-2012 statistics, roster and game notes. Their probable starters are:

  • #23, 5'4" senior guard Jericka Jenkins leads the offense and is responsible for more than half of the Lady Pirates' field goals. She averages 7.2 assists (second-best in the nation) and has an assist/turnover ratio of 2.41 (fifth-best in the nation (our Toni is eighth-best at 2.34)). She is also the leading scorer with 14 points per game.
  • #3, 5'5" senior guard Choicetta McMillian is the second-best scorer at 13.6 points per game. She takes more than 2/3 of her shots from beyond the arc and makes 36% of them.
  • #13, 5'11" junior forward Keiara Avant is the leading rebounder at 8.1 per game – 3.0 of them are O-boards. She also scores 7.9 points per game.
  • #11, 6'2" junior forward Ariel Phelps averages 1.2 blocks, 4.8 points and 5.9 rebounds (3.4 of them O-boards) per game.
  • #21, 6'2" sophomore forward Alyssa Bennett averages 7.8 points and 5.8 rebounds per game.

  West Virginia Mountaineers

Stanford and West Virginia have played each other just once before – in 1986. Stanford lost.

The Mountaineers are making their fifth appearance in the NCAAs in the past six years. They advanced to the second round five times.

The Mountaineers finished eighth in the Big East behind Notre Dame, Connecticut, St. John's, Rutgers, DePaul, Louisville and Georgetown and lost to Notre Dame in the conference tournament.

They don't come much more physical than the Mountaineers, who commit 18.2 fouls per game (288th in the nation) and are fouled themselves an equal amount. Fortunately for their opponents, the Mountaineers make just 67.2% of their free throws (218th in the nation). They are a good defensive team — they allow their opponents just 51.3 points per game (5th in the nation) at a rate of 32.7% (4th in the nation).

The Mountaineers are a young team, with just one senior and two juniors. They have a deep bench – ten of their eleven players average at least ten minutes per game and no-one averages more than 30 minutes.

The Mountaineers may be missing a key player, sophomore point guard Brooke Hampton, who dishes out almost 1/3 of their assists with a very good assist/turnover ratio of 2.08. Hampton was injured in the Mountaineers' quarterfinal game against Georgetown, did not play in the semifinal against Notre Dame, and has not been announced as a starter for the game on Saturday. There has been no report of her injury other than, "She has not practiced since the first half of the Georgetown game. We’re hoping to get her back as soon as possible."

Here are West Virginia's 2011-2012 statistics, roster and game notes. Their probable starters are:

  • #1, 5'9" sophomore guard Christal Caldwell averages 11.1 points and 5.8 rebounds.
  • #22, 5'7" freshman guard Linda Stepney averages 4.4 points, 2.7 assists and 2.1 rebounds.
  • #14, 6'1" sophomore forward Jess Harlee averages 5.1 points, 2.0 steals and 5.3 rebounds. She has fouled out of four games this season.
  • #33, 6'3" junior center Ayana Dunning is the leading rebounder with 8.4 per game and averages 8.2 points.
  • #20, 6'4" junior center Asya Bussie is the leading scorer at 12.2 points per game, the leading shot-blocker with 2.2 per game, and the second-best rebounder with 6.7 per game.
Also of note is sophomore guard Taylor Palmer, the Mountaineers' leading long distance shooter. She takes 62% of her shots from beyond the arc and makes 31% of them

  Texas Longhorns

Stanford and Texas have played a home-and-away series in the past two seasons. Stanford won this season's hard-fought game in Texas without Nneka.

The Longhorns have played in the NCAAs 34 times. This will be their fifth appearance in the past six years. They advanced to the second round once.

The Longhorns finished seventh in the Big 12 behind Baylor, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Iowa State and Kansas and lost to Texas Tech in the first round of the conference tournament. They were on the bubble for the NCAAs because of their poor record. Their schedule strength is probably what got them in — they defeated Texas A&M twice, Oklahoma, Cal and Virginia.

The Longhorns are an experienced team that has not performed up to expectations this season. Getting past the first round is going to depend on whether their big posts (Ashley Gayle and Cokie Reed) can bang with the physical play of West Virginia.

Here are the Texas 2011-2012 statistics and roster. Their probable starters are:

  • #24, 5'10" sophomore guard Chassidy Fussell is the leading scorer with 16.5 points per game. More than a third of her field goals are three-pointers – she makes them at a rate of 37.7%.
  • #12, 5'7" senior guard Yvonne Anderson runs the point for the Longhorns. She averages 5.6 assists and has a good assist/turnover ratio of 1.7. She also averages 11.9 points, 2.7 steals and 3.5 rebounds per game.
  • #33, 5'8" senior guard Ashleigh Fontenette shares the point guard duty with Anderson. She averages 11.9 points, 3.6 assists, 1.5 steals and 4.3 rebounds per game.
  • #22, 6'4" senior post Ashley Gayle is the Longhorns' defensive specialist, with an average of 6.6 rebounds and 2.9 blocked shots per game.
  • #45, 6'4" sophomore post Cokie Reed redshirted last season and was not very effective when Stanford played the Longhorns in November. She has improved since then to an average of 6.2 points and 4.4 rebounds per game.

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